From theory to practice - page 1398

[Evgeniy Chumakov]

Renat Akhtyamov:

Deal with the question of how not to lose a cent in the first place

Don't trade.

Initially, it is not in our favour, with all the commissions, spreads and swaps.

[Maksim Antonenko]

Evgeniy Chumakov:

Do not trade.

Initially, it is not in our favour, with all the commissions, spreads and swaps.

Renat, for some reason, decided that if he builds his TS based on the rule "with the dummy", it will give him more than "with the crowd". He doesn't want to believe that the market is 99% random. Yes, there are many regularly recurring patterns, but they all work out 50/50.

[Renat Akhtyamov]

Макс:
Renat for some reason decided that if he built his ts using the rule "together with the dummy", then it will give him more than "together with the crowd". He doesn't want to believe that the market is 99% random. Yes, there are many regularly recurring patterns, but they all work out 50/50.

Since P(50/50) = 1/2 = 0.5, P(50+50) = ?

that's a bastard approach.

;)

[Uladzimir Izerski]

Renat Akhtyamov:

Since P(50/50) = 1/2 = 0.5, P(50+50) = ?

that's a bastard approach.

;)

=100-spread X 2.)

[Unicornis]

Renat Akhtyamov:

Since P(50/50) = 1/2 = 0.5, P(50+50) = ?

that's a bastard approach.

;)

=2-spread+swap ;)

[Uladzimir Izerski]

Unicornis:

=2-spread+swap;)

Yes and commission in some cases.

But that's the little things with a good TS.

[apr73]

Макс:
The market is 99% random. Yes, there are many regularly repeated patterns, but they all work out 50/50.

Have you done any research?

Can you show me an example of at least one pattern that works with a 50/50 probability?

[EgorKim]

Uladzimir Izerski:

Yes, and the commission in some cases.

But it's nothing if the TC is good.

I don't understand people who say it's no big deal.

In my case it's not a trifle at all, but money and significant losses.

My only swap for 1 day rollover is 50 pips.

In 10 days it is 500 pips, which is more than the average profit that is fixed.

Is it a trifle for you?

apr73:

Have you done any research?

Can you show me an example of at least one pattern that has a 50/50 probability?

https://www.mql5.com/ru/articles/5220

Заключение
При исследовании нескольких рынков ценных бумаг я увидел, что после гэпа вероятность продолжения движения и вероятность разворота у многих близка к 50%, то есть ловля гэпа — это 50/50. Но при этом есть ценные бумаги, у которых вероятности значительно выше 65% (причём это могут как вероятность продолжения, так и вероятность разворота). И именно в этих ценных бумагах можно опираться на торговлю по гэпам.

[apr73]

EgorKim:

https://www.mql5.com/ru/articles/5220

Thank you, interesting article.

The author writes a conclusion at the end of the article:

"Conclusion.

In researching several securities markets I have seen that after a gap the probability of continuation and the probability of reversal for many is close to 50%, i.e. catching a gap is 50/50. That said, there are securities that have probabilities well above 65% (and these can be both continuation and reversal probabilities). And it is in these securities that gaps trading can be relied upon."

I.e. the conclusion is not clear-cut, like 50/50, but there is also 65%

The parameters of the pattern are not quite clear.

[Yuriy Asaulenko]

apr73:

Have you done any research?

Can you show me an example of at least one pattern that works with a 50/50 probability?

Perhaps the patterns do work with more than a 50/50 probability. But the patterns themselves are an apparent reflection of the apparent moon).