From theory to practice - page 1024

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Martin Cheguevara:
Speed has nothing to do with it... There's nothing wrong with it.
What's so difficult about understanding how to trade the market?
If the market is mostly random and 99% of traders are losing out on it, then you need to find a trend like the one you've shown and open in the opposite direction when the potential for movement decreases.
Why is it difficult to understand that if the market is random at 98%, in the case of a directed move, it will return to its normal state, and in most cases, roll back as it "needs" to dump those who have earned on the current movement.
But of course you need to clearly identify these very non-random movements. This is impossible for those who cannot read carefully.
The market pulls back an average of 40%-50%.
Identification of the current movement in time and there is a goal which has all chances to earn in the opposite direction. Here's a paradox: looking for non-random price movements, we earn on pullbacks, stabilization
Otherwise, the market wouldn't be so random.)
Everything is simple as hell.
But the system is very complex to implement.

Once again - bravo!

The post completely coincides with my view of the market.

 
Alexander_K:

Once again - bravo!

The post is completely in line with my view of the market.

I've been following this thread for 4 months now and I'm wondering if anyone has a bright idea on the horizon... Judging by the posts, at this rate, it may appear in about two years... Alexander, don't give up. Try to think by Occam's razor - it will help you a lot).
 
Alexander_K:

Once again - bravo!

The post is fully consistent with my view of the market.

You've noticed that for a long time I've been delivering the same message. I do it for a reason)
The truth is the truth to be the only solution)
 
Martin Cheguevara:
Have you noticed that for a long time I've been blathering on about the same thing. I do it for a reason)
The truth is the truth to be the only right decision.)

Why do you litter all the threads with it?

Out of desperation?

 
Дмитрий:

Why do you litter all the threads with it?

Out of desperation?

Yeah, right))))))))))))))))))))
 
Martin Cheguevara:

Why is it hard to understand if the market is 98% random.


The question is for whom is the market random, for the observer? Or is the market random to itself? Just like that - the price happens here, and then the price happens there, and then it happens again wherever it wants... Or does the price represent the final result of something happening?

If you look at the way cars move when approaching an intersection, it may seem random to the observer that they follow, but it is not a fact that the driver changed his mind and went the wrong way.

 
Evgeniy Chumakov:


The question is for whom is the market random, for the observer? Or is the market random to itself? Just like that - the price happens here, and then the price happens there, and then it happens again wherever it wants... Or does the price represent the final result of something?

If you look at the way cars move when approaching an intersection, it may appear to the observer that their subsequent movements are random, but it is not a fact that the driver changed his mind and drove in the wrong direction.

What's the observer got to do with it? Accidental in itself, and the observer is dumb. The outcome of this manipulation is predictable

I've been through more than one generation of traders and played requiem on them.

as some physicist would say... if you put the eye at a certain distance from the market, it will not change its properties, as it was before the observer, so it remains

i mean a time series of quotes, not the market itself... though that doesn't make it any easier

 
Martin Cheguevara:
I've been following this thread for four months now and I'm wondering if anyone has a bright idea on the horizon... Judging by the posts, at this rate, it may appear in about two years... Alexander, don't give up. Try to think by the principle of razors Occam's principle will help you a lot).

Sickle in the balls? Also an option, one less problem.

 
Maxim Dmitrievsky:

what does it have to do with the observer? the observer is dumb. the outcome of this manipulation is predictable.

I've lived through more than one generation of Traduns and played requiem on them.

as some physicist would say... if you put the eye at a certain distance from the market, it will not change its properties, as it was before the observer, so it remains

I'm talking about the time series of quotes, not the market itself... although that doesn't make it any easier

You've already got everything completely confused in your head from despair.

The measure of the randomness of a process is a function of the particular predictive model.

One process can be predicted by a model with R^2=0.82 and another with R^2=0.42.

So how random is the process?

 
Дмитрий:

You've already got it all mixed up in your head.

The measure of process randomness is a function of the particular predictive model.

One process can be predicted by a model with R^2=0.82 and another with R^2=0.42.

So how random is this process?

with a larger sample, it's random, 50/50.

I don't have anything confused in my head. It is possible to earn, but as the horizon increases, profits will fall proportionally and tend to zero

proven by Nobel

What's r^2 got to do with it, what are you talking about?
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