Ward 6 - page 76

New comment
 
Dr.Drain:

You are not a stupid man. But you have said a rare foolishness. I am not aiming to show an increase in balance here.

Hello, come to the Christmas tree.

What else don't we know about why you're here?

 
Dr.Drain:

... You don't understand how fast a step function grows. ...

Especially in wartime.
 
DmitriyN:
And I asked about the ratio of profitable to losing trades for a reason. My intuition told me that the profitable ones will be somewhere around 66.6%. Why - I do not know myself.
Barack Hussein Obama. The number of his name: 18 letters - 6 6 6. Obama was born on August 4, which is the 216th day of the year. 216=6*6*6. There are exactly 666 pages in the book describing Obama's plan "Change for America: A Progressive Blueprint for the 44th President" (Basic Books: 666 pp., $24.95 paper) http://articles.latimes.com/ 2009/jan/20/entertainment/et- bookside20
Barack Obama was born in 1961 A.D. (the 13th year of Israel) on August 4 according tothe Gregorian calendar .According to the current Jewish lunar-solar calendar, the date 04.08.1961 falls on 22 av 5721 from the creation of the world. 22 - 9 = 13 (all things thirteen). This is a very familiar and remarkable difference. The date of birth of Barack Obama will defend against the traditional date of birth of the Antichrist by 13 days "plus ". That is, by the same amount of time that separates the Gregorian calendar from the Julian . That is,if we take Obama's date of birth according to the Roman calendar in effect at the time of the destruction of the Temple, we will get to the date of birth of the Antichrist according to the modern Jewish calendar DAY TO DAY .B.O.'s phone number which is listed on his personal facebook page contains the number sequence "666". he had this number when he was a senator .As predicted, the Beast was crowned king in black gloves.
His wife was none other than Miss Hell. For the first time in the history of the USA, a President did not kiss the Bible at his inauguration. Underscoring the point, Obama arrived at the inauguration in a Beast car. The day after the elections, on the day the results were announced, on November 5 , thewinning number 666 was announced inthe lottery of the state of Illinois, where Obama was a senator .

Obama's campaign anthem... the song "Yes We Can" in reverse... will be heard Thank You Satan. https://www.youtube.com/watch? v=jqALdkTArqsdaughter's name isNatasha. Backwards is Ah Satan. The Apocalypse from Elijah: One of the signs of the Beast will be a white gray spot on his head. Obama's official website in Russia http://www.barackobama.ru/fotoThe third photo above clearly shows the gray spot .The Bible says that the Beast will come as a man of peace. Indeed, immediately after the inauguration the Nobel Peace Prize was awarded. The woman priest and pederast priest who blessed Obama at the inaugurationare rejected by God HOWEVER .Luke's Gospel says "I saw Satan sleeping like lightning from heaven". So "lightning from heaven" is Hebrew: "barak o bama...

... And the ten horns which thou sawest are ten kings, which have not yet received the kingdom, but shall take power with the beast as kings for one hour .The transformation of the G7 into the G20 before our eyes will yield the required number 10, if we subtract the geopolitical enemies of the West, Russia and China, as well asthe European Union, a fictitious structure that duplicates the real countries. Ten countries, which previously played no role in the world power ("have not yet received the kingdom"), with the beginning of the apocalyptic period joinedthe expanded Western structure along with the former G7 and were allowed to manage financial flows, and with them to rule the world ("will take power with the beast, like kings"), but their stay in this role, given the fragility of the current geopolitical structure of the West in general, is obviously not long ("for one hour") .

The beast will rule for 3.5 years... Then Armageddon will begin. You can rest assured, Armageddon - the final battle around Jerusalem will begin on time, just after 3.5 years of rule, on July 20, the US will attack Iran, Iran will attack Israel .Iraq, Egypt, Syria, Iran are just steps towards the Armageddon that theChristian fanatics around President J. Bush Jr. have been so fond of ranting about .J. Bush Jr. even said "God ordered me to attack Iraq - and I did" (c).Armageddon, as predicted, will last 5 months .Right up to December 21, 2012.

And why there's a theoretical 66.6% probability... because that's why on roulette the sum of the numbers is 666 :-)

 
Dr.Drain:

But said a rare foolishness. I'm not aiming to show an increase in balance here.

where ? where is the secret place where your balance is growing ?
 
DmitriyN:

He's an MM. His probability of a losing trade is 0.4 (according to the demo account). To withdraw half of 10000 he must make 5000/50=100 losing trades in a row.
And the probability of this event is 0.4^100=1.6*10E-40.
Taking into account that he executes 8.4 trades per day on average - 3066 trades per year. So the probability of losing half of his account in a year is very small.

But, if he did not keep MM, then, for example, at lot = 2, he would need to make only 5 losing trades in a row.
And probability of this event = 0.4^5= 0.01. Consequently, he would lose 3066*0.01=30 times in a year.

Let the mathematicians correct me if I am wrong.

You are wrong. I'm not thinking about money management or balance sheet growth as evidence at all. I'm demonstrating a preponderance of probability. Increase the number of trades by 10 times and lot by three and show 30 times more profit - not the point. The idea is not the point. You can lose half in many ways, not just "100 losing trades in a row". But also "99 losses in a row, 1 profit, 2 losses". And an unrealistically large number of them. So the probability of such an event is many orders of magnitude greater than the one you calculated. It's still a long shot, though.

"I always translate scientific articles from the pindonese and take great pleasure in the "weobservers" part. What do you want? "Was observed" is in the Germanic tradition, impersonal, but here it's an active life position. I retain the emotional colouring.

 
Not with any particular one. By the way, the links found here to another forum and their demo and non-delayed filter are true. Not very clever people interpret it as a proof of worthlessness of the idea and filter. Smarter people would see it as the fact that the idea was developed over a period of more than one year. And it is quite natural that eventually the algorithm's capabilities were developed many times over. That the first raw versions were not perfect is natural.
 
DmitriyN:
On a random walk graph, what would your system's results be?
Three times I've written here. Exactly 50/50. There are no miracles.
 
IronBird:
I don't like that equity at all. I don't understand what all the fuss is about. I don't even know what all the fuss is about. I've always thrown such strategists in my trash.
I liked that comment the best. I love such arrogantly stupid posts.
 
DmitriyN:
Can you give a specific formula for calculating this probability?
Sum over all possible realisations and their probabilities. And there are a lot of possible realizations. For example, 80 losing trades, 20 profitable trades, 40 losing trades. As a matter of fact, we only need 100 trades that turned out to be losing, so the condition in a row is irrelevant here.
 
Replyed in person :-)
1...69707172737475767778
New comment
Reason: