Is there a need for a T.A.? - page 33
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The hardest thing in any argument is to remember at the end of the argument exactly what you started arguing about.
TA is a set of hypotheses, not a science. Interpreting "TA is predicting future price changes based on an analysis of past price changes" is a bit odd. Replace the word "price" with "random variable" and you get, TA is a general definition for probability theory, mathematical statistics etc.
IMHO you have to define TA through a list of methods. Then we can argue about the validity or invalidity of these methods.
The "right" Renko. :)
No, it is not. The term "TA" is applied to the analysis of quotes, not to any random process. Cotyros move according to different laws than a needle recording the fluctuations of the earth's surface near a volcano. But both are random processes.
I agree, it is to the analysis of quotes that it has taken root. But you agree that by defining "through the past to the future" a lot can be driven under it. Purely theoretically and with a formal approach to terminology.
I can apply statistical methods to analyse quotes. Another thing is the question of the adequacy of the results due to non-stationarity, etc. But using statistical methods I use only quotes history for forecasting. And we can even talk about the axiom "history repeats itself". Clasic definition of TA.
IMHO definition of TA by listing specific methods of analysis of quotes. Then it is possible to argue about adequacy or inadequacy of particular methods.
I don't know about trading, but the author of this thread, anjilll , definitely has a gift of some sort.
After all, there are essentially 2 questions:
1. How to earn on FOREX?
2. What to do if the Technical. Analysis does not produce accurate and guaranteed results?
Despite the fact that the questions are eternal and obvious, the thread collected 30 pages of comments
for 3 days. For me this is quite an unexpected result, because no one could have
responded to questions that everyone has been trying to find an answer to for a long time already.
Now for the topic.
In a nutshell, there are several profitable trading directions:
Robots, technical analysis, intuitive trading on the news, etc.
There are successful traders who have been dealing profitably with these methods for years
and they are not idiots. All of them are geniuses in some way. This is an undeniable fact.
There are a lot of examples and one cannot doubt their authenticity,
, because there are chat rooms where trading is done in real time
with all the honest people, and the leaders of these chat rooms are profitable.
Yes, there may be drawdowns, but not so much that in a month or a week
lose a year's profit as some here claim.
There are several conclusions from this:
1. To trade successfully skills and knowledge from ordinary life are not enough,
as trading is an incomparable business.
2. To develop your own or master someone else's trading methodology
it would be good to see an example of consistently profitable trades of that idea.
3. 3. Success on Forex market is never easy and quick.
4. There are people who have the qualities of character for trading
and there are those who do not, as in any business. One of them is
the ability to stubbornly and for a long time go towards the goal, even if it is over the horizon.
Already this is beyond the capacity of many.
Would you agree with me, dear forum participants, that it is quite difficult to build a
trading system on your own? After all, implementing even simple
ideas requires research, debugging, etc.
Does anyone want to join a group?
I myself have been studying the system for 3 years, which is guaranteed to bring its author a profit
more than 5 years in a row almost daily. By my calculations his income fluctuates
in the range of 20%-80% per month. That's with earnings of 100 pips per week and risk
less than 5% of deposit per trade.
There are simply no losing months. Is it a grail? Definitely.
From the technical analysis - a pair of median plotting muwings, synthetic volume,
as well as indication of support/resistance levels. All moving averages, indicators
and etc. are not from MT4. This is an author`s elaboration.
The author and his students use this methodology absolutely manually, making markup of
for entries and exits. 98% of trades are intraday.
Average stop is 12 pips.
Average target is around 40.
Major pairs: EUR/USD GBP/USD.
I have 1-3 trades per day.
What is my personal problem? The problem is the human factor. As it turned out
too much has to be done manually.
Emotions fail too, when the mind is overloaded.
If the psyche of the method's author and his software fit each other perfectly
many other people are given the skill of using
an unambiguously profitable method not easily.
It's like the fact that you can shoot down
enemy air targets on a Su-27 fighter jet, but not the fact that in your hands
this machine will be a winner and not a wreck after the first attack.
Now, I'm pretty profoundly confident that with a
support group of programmers and practicing traders,
things would be more fun for all of us.
It is absolutely clear what to look for, where it lies and what to do with it.
Of course, everyone has their own ideas, their own goals, their own accumulated beliefs.
But a fact is a fact, we make pretty slow progress on our own.
So maybe there is a way to join forces, rather than just stating
the difficulty of analyzing quotes?
You will probably have a question: why should anyone
work for me for free?
The answer is just as obvious: we all not only work for free,
but often at a loss. We work long hours and long hours. Some leave
work for a few months to strengthen their research.
Some are looking for a part-time job or one so they can
follow the market. And in doing so, supposedly everyone works for themselves,
but without stable results.
Obviously, robots do not trade perfectly. So it takes practice
to apply even the most profitable system.
At the same time, trading, researching and programming
is quite difficult.
I am willing to share my knowledge and experience.
So why not unite those who are ripe for it?
I would be happy to receive comments.
What are the requirements for a trader? I want to try...
Does anyone have a desire to join a group?
I've been studying the system myself for 3 years, which is guaranteed to bring its author a profit
for over 5 years straight on an almost daily basis. By my calculations, his income fluctuates
in the range of 20%-80% per month. That's with profits of 100 pips per week and risk
less than 5% of deposit per trade.
There are no losing months. Is it a grail? Definitely.
From technical analysis - a pair of median muwings, synthetic volume,
as well as an indication of support/resistance levels. All the moving curves and indictors
and the like are not from MT4. These are author's developments.
The author and his students use this methodology absolutely manually, making markup of
for entries and exits. 98% of trades are intraday.
There is an average stop loss of 12 pips.
An average target is around 40.
Major pairs: EUR/USD GBP/USD.
1-3 trades per day.
It's an interesting idea. I often wondered whether to gather a creative team of traders, programmers and just normal people... The main thing that the team should be reliable, it is possible to test idea after idea and so on... This is a bit far-fetched, but still, God help you.
You've been studying the system for 3 years... 3 years... studying... Are you sure we're talking about a system?
sever29:
What are the requirements for a trader? I want to try...
//
The requirements are very simple: a serious approach, willingness and readiness to die, but to complete the task. And no kidding, the intraday trading methodology requires the ability to monitor the market at least several hours a day and make trades. This is as far as trading is concerned.
For programmer's assistant I need to know Delphi, because I work with auxiliary
analysis tools in Delphi. The sources of quotes are available, the protocols are known.
The graphical interface is implemented in iGDI+ and this provides complete freedom.
The matter is to write new modules for analysis of market trading patterns.
I think that to check someone's seriousness I will give a simple test task
for an hour of parsing and the results will show what is what.
I forgot to specify my level of seriousness of attitude to trading.
I have a higher education: I graduated from International Relations Department in 2002. I rejected my job offers to work in banks, because it's not a creative kind of job. I worked as a driver, translator and a programmer (on my own). I don't have children, wife or girlfriend, that's why I devote more than 80% of my time to trading. I also deal with psychology and a little bit of programming in Delphi, I read and edit MQL, I know PHP and HTML. I can stay indoors for weeks programming or making a site. In 9 years I poured out about $5,000 in deposits. I invested about $2 000 more in development of my own software based on working method + server rent. Actually this is a copy of a working trading system.
But now I don't have enough money to hire 3 programmers, pay them $3 000
and turn FOREX into a printing press. I work mostly on my own.
During the last year of regular work I've accumulated a lot of examples (snapshots) of positive trades on a real small account. And even more examples of losing trades. In general, there is a lot of material to discuss and share.
Interested to know what your graph looks like. Would it be naive to ask for a screenshot?
denis_orlov
3 years studying the system... 3 years... studying... Are you sure we're talking about the system?
//
Denis, it's not 3 years of daily work. Purely trading
is maybe a year and a half.
Of course, it's not a system, but it is a method.
Does it work?
The first couple of years almost every day there were video examples from the developer.
He ran his own forum, people posted trades... Now the forum is closed
from the public domain. The developer stopped recruiting new clients
because he's not interested in excessive sales of his software.
Besides, I often see what's what, not just post factum, but
but rather on time. I'm just inattentive and miss transactions
or lack of confirmation.
Sometimes, purely technically, I don't have time to concentrate, but
Basically two months June, July with 90 pips of profit
have been pretty stable.
For example, today I was on the phone at the moment when
a good trade matured. That's why when it was forming.
didn't see the entry being prepared.
A bit lacking in pure computer support to
to notice all the subtleties. But it is not mechanics in many cases.
Yes, there are trades that can be made mechanically, but who
wants to wait for 2-3 such trades in a week. I mean, you've got to watch them
all day long, and that's not interesting. What's interesting is that you have to trade almost every day
to trade almost every day and do it profitably with the result of 100 pips a week.
This result is the norm for a developer. So why cannot you
repeat it?
There is only one reason: it is hard to train the mind.
The solution: add tools and make it easier to find entries.