Avalanche - page 160
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По Катале, может быть... но связывать работу, к примеру, по среднедневному ходу цены с обучением в мастерфорекс, думаю, лишним. Я себя беру в пример, мне очень нравится дневной диапазон, но эт не значит, что я где-то этому обучался.
Yes, I know what you mean. I have not seen the link between the day move and training at the Academy) It is clear that there is no link, because it is not authored by Mastreforex... he only used this idea. I will repeat about day-travel and MasterForex, I said in terms of what John said in Mastreforex's words and regarding consortium as well. But of course this does not mean that if you like the idea of a day move you studied at the academy.You and I speak different languages. I'm talking about Ivan, you're talking about Stepan. I'm saying you can't teach talent, not that you shouldn't learn. I don't mean school or institute. Everyone goes to school, many go to college, but not everyone becomes a Nobel Prize winner. On Forex everybody trades, but not everybody earns. I'm talking about talent, and you're talking about mass education... Generally, we are talking about different things.
I think that you're against studying the market from outside, for example on the maserforex. That's why I cited the example of temples and knowledge halls :)
Мне показалось, что ты против обучения рынку со стороны, например на масерфорексе. Вот и привел пример с общеизвествными храмами и домами знаний.
What do you mean against? You obviously don't know what I mean. Everyone goes to school, but not everyone gets a Nobel Prize. Someone will graduate with honours, someone will be kicked out of school. I'm saying you have to study, but it's impossible to learn how to trade profitably. It's a talent that cannot be learned. If you learn to become a professional trader, you can learn to trade profitably all your life. You can learn to trade all your life and you can read a lot of books, but you still lose. You may study all your life, you can read through tons of books and still lose. This is either there or not. You can and should learn it. But you cannot say, for example, that I will learn and become a profitable trader. Far from it. I don't know how else to explain it.Олег, ты, наверно, все же загнул, что регулярно успешный трейдер подобен лауреату Нобелевки. Не так это. У меня есть знакомые трейдеры, не обладающие каким-то выдающимся интеллектом (средненький вообще-то, в районе 100-110), но успешно торгующие. Звезд с неба не зватают - но успешно торгуют.
No...I'm not making a direct comparison. A successful trader and a Nobel laureate, it was more of an allegory in the context of the fact that there are just as few stable earning traders as there are Nobel laureates. I'm talking about talent as an inexpressible phenomenon, it's not just intellect. I wrote that it's also about character traits, psychology, a certain ability to see and understand the price, and God knows what else... That is, for example, it is not the fact that a Nobel Prize winner can successfully trade on Forex. Right? But an ordinary high school student with a IQ of 100 can. This is what I'm talking about... a special talent... some kind of specific abilities to be a successful trader. It's not for everyone. You can't learn it. I explain that it is impossible to learn, no matter how high the level of intelligence may be. If everything in Forex depended on the level of intelligence, any Nobel Prize winner would have earned all the money in the world. The thing is that the talent to earn on Forex is not only and probably not so much in the level of itlekta. This is why I even say that no matter how smart and teachable a person is, it by no means guarantees that he will be a successful trader or that he is so smart that he can learn to trade. If you do not have a talent for trading, you cannot make money on your smartness and education alone.
Да нет..я не сравниваю на прямую. Успешного трейдера и лауреата Нобелевки, это скорее была аллегория в контексте того что стабильно зарабатывающих трейдеров так же мало как и лауреатов Нобелевки. Ребята смотрите шире..дело ведь не только в том что у лауреата нобелевки ай кью 200, я ведь говорю о таланте как о неком невыразимом явлении, дело ведь не только в интелекте. Я ведь писал что дело и в особеностях характера, психологии, какого то умения видеть и понимать цену,и Бог весть чего ещё такого.. То есть например далеко не факт что лауреат Нобелевки сможет успешно торговать на форексе. Ведь так?? А вот простой двоешник с ай кью 100 может. Я об этом и говорю..об особом таланте..неких спецефических способностях быть успешным трейдером. Это не каждому дано..этому не научица. Я как раз и обьясняю что этому не возможно научица каким бы высоким не был уровень интелекта. Если бы на Форексе всё зависело только от уровня ума то любой лауреат Нобелевки давно бы заработал все деньги в мире. В том то и дело что талант зарабатывать на форексе выражеца не только, а возможно и не столько в уровне ителекта. Потому и говорю даже утверждаю что каким бы умным ни был человек и способным к обучению это ни в коем случае не гарантирует что он станет успешным трейдером, или вот он такой умный поэтому сможет научица торговать. Нет не научица, если нет трейдерского таланта, на одном уме и учёбе всёравно не сможет заработать."Turtles arose out of a dispute between two traders. The essence of the dispute was whether it was possible to learn how to trade. Richard Dennis and William Eckhardt, two old friends and partners in the firm, were arguing. William, himself well trained in mathematics, believed that to be a successful trader, one must have a sixth sense and an animal instinct for profit, while Richard's brilliant results were "marvellous, subjective or intuitive". Richard himself, who was just turning 40 at the time, believed that it was simpler than that and attributed his success to the few trading methods he had developed and, perhaps more importantly, to a discipline in following them. He was convinced that trading ability could be reduced to a set of rules that could be passed from one successful trader to another.
They argued on the subject for several years until Richard proposed a $1 bet. He suggested that William set up an experiment that would settle their argument - recruit a group of people and try to teach them everything they themselves knew about trading. The trading results of these newly trained traders were to answer the question - is it possible to learn successful trading."
Entire article.
5+
...Our aversion to summary statistics, which destroy structure, extends to trading systems. For example, we avoid using moving averages of prices to make trades. These moving averages are popular mainly because they are mathematically clear, but they erase all the structural information contained in prices. .....
Anti Avalanche Algorithm
After a losing trade you reduce the size of the position for the next trade. Looking at the big picture, reducing the size of a position during a loss allows you to effectively resist the arithmetic progression leading to ruin. The aim is to catch the trend. Since the markets are exponential in nature, you do not have to worry about linear depreciations, because even the lightest exponential curve will eventually break the steepest linear curve.
Talking about trader's talent... hehehe...
Yeah... maybe he is the talent... I don't know... maybe it's not... but I can say with a hundred percent guarantee that with some experience (which is earned through blood and sweat, and over several years of real trading) - you can almost hundred percent make 100 points a day... while occasionally losing 50... at a ratio of 10/3... like this...
It's not advertising, it's not PR... These are facts... And any trader who really trades with real money will confirm it... If anyone's interested, I can post my own live stats... where you can see it all...
Another issue and another theme - that there are few real traders... The market is very volatile and there is a vast army of traders who either don't work or work on penny accounts of $10 and are hovering around zero ... The vast majority, in general, write robots for the TS like "avalanche", which by definition, then work and give a profit can not... even in the tester... And let alone a real one... Avalanche" TS implies instant closure of dozens of orders when a certain profit is reached ...
Only people unfamiliar with real trading in MT may spend their time and effort...
In this regard, I would argue that the real-time trading strategy of MetaTrader4 is not that simple, but a multi-tasking strategy that requires instant execution of several trade orders, that is, it's doomed to failure. And they are good as nice solutions for codeplay... It doesn't work in real life :) And it is unlikely it will ever work... After all, a trade order of, say, 10 lots will not be executed instantly in the real world... Everyone knows it.... And the more so when market order closes dozens of positions on one tick ... Well, this is nonsense:) For all real traders, it's clear at once that this is just for fun, and it will never work for real ... On a real account one order of 5 lots cannot be closed every time from a tick... Never mind 10 at once... :)
So everything we discuss here... all these stats are just toys... very far from the real trading activity in the financial/stock markets
5+
... Наше отвращение к суммарной статистике, которая уничтожает структуру, распространяется и на торговые системы. Например, мы избегаем использования скользящих средних цен для совершения сделок. Такие скользящие средние популярны в основном из-за того, что математически понятны, однако они стирают всю структурную информацию, содержащуюся в ценах. .....
Алгоритм анти лавины
После убыточной сделки вы сокращаете размер позиции для следующего трейда. Если же посмотреть в целом, то сокращение размера позиции во время убытков, позволяет эффективно сопротивляться арифметической прогрессии ведущей к разорению. Цель в том, чтобы поймать тренд. Так как рынки экспоненциальны по натуре, можно не беспокоятся о линейных понижениях капитала, так как даже легкая экспоненциальная кривая в итоге преодолеет самую крутую линейную кривую.
Now the same thing but in such popularly accessible language for people like me who have not defended doctoral dissertations.