EURUSD - Trends, Forecasts and Implications (Part 1) - page 1119
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Лично меня интересует сколько процентов от депозита я взял.
И писать против ветра я не буду
Сел так сел и бай я не поставлю если для этого нет причин.
Плавали - знаем.
What if we just temporarily exit the position and place a sell stop at that point and then trawl the sell stop for a price? Seems to be a risk-free technique, if there is a confident forecast for a temporary pullback.Zhenya, honestly, even if you have a good system, you're still going to fail. You know why?
The risks. "completely vindicated" and "sometimes there are lapses" are not reliable. And you work with unreliable statistics, sooner or later you exceed the risks. No, not like that, you start to systematically exceed the risks.
This is "fully recovered" and 100% successful forecasts for these months should have already lifted you to the sky, to financial Olympus. But it hasn't.
And it won't be until you do your forecasts reliably, and I believe they are working and are very good.
As long as you cheat yourself, you'll be playing roulette, you may be up too much, but you'll be down too much.
The whole point of accurate forecasts will always be the human factor - no matter how well you do you always go beyond standard situations and accidents happen, they are deviations from standard behavior, which we then use as a standard situation... The question is of course that all risks should be minimized not only by the system but also by money management tools - but if everything is taken into account the forecast works 100% - but the trick is that we need time to catch up with every movement.
I've got a pullback coming up at 8:00... there's a very strong reversal zone...
Вся суть правильных прогнозов свегда будет заключаться в человеческом факторе - как бы ты хорошо не делал ты всегда выходишь за рамки стандартных ситуеций и возникают случайности - отклонения от стандарта поведения - которое потом мы применяем как уже стандартную ситуацию.. вопрос конечно же состоит в том что все риски нужно стараться минимизировать не только системой но методами управления деньгами - но если все правильно учитывать то прогноз работает на все 100% - но весь ньанс заключается в том что мы стремимся успеть за каждым движением а время у нас не растягивается в принятии решенний - его попросту нехватает - следствие от этого и происходят ошибки, у меня в выходные прогнозы получаються лучше когда ты спокойно не торопясь просмотриваешь несколько вариантов и рисуешь что может произойти и появляються ответы не только на рисунке но и от интуиции - вот в этом то и состоит что чем быстрее стараемся принимать быстрые решение тем больше ошибок мы совершаем..
That's right. But that's not what I'm talking about. If you have an 80% reliable prediction system and you rate it as 90% reliable, you're done. If you have a system of 90% reliable predictions and you rate it as 100% reliable, you're done.
You may stop even at 60% and make profits with a reliable estimate.
And you're going to lose even at 90% credible.
That's what I'm trying to tell you.
--
You got the grail, and you can't use it.
What matters to me is that everything is on track plus or minus 50 points :)
This is the movement I envisaged.
probably price will go to 1.382 (M15) from previous rising trend...
The Asian session is neither bearish nor bullish. It is not clear. Such a calm reversal is certainly not believable. Looks like the big bottom is still a long way off, there is no sign of a hike in prices.
In general, lows seem to be still to be expected.