A draining trend of the Championship. - page 5
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As all statistics are accumulated, we will try to publish a maximum variety of reports before the end of the Championship. If you want to help, suggest research topics. Preferably with the plan of questions and the formulated purpose of verification. All types of reports, including server logs, will be used for research.
You cannot have too much statistics :)
The development of trading is surely moving towards more and more automation of the process. I once witnessed a conversation between a user of one of the trading platforms and its developer on one of the forums. The user told us that the platform is good in every way, but there is no possibility to develop automated trading systems. The developer guiltily excused himself - yes, we do realize it's a big disadvantage and now we are concentrating all our efforts to provide the clients with such opportunities in the nearest future. I believe that in a couple of years the availability of automated trading systems will become a norm for most trading platforms, and in five years their absence will be generally perceived as an anachronism. In this regard, the Championship general statistics gives interesting information for developers and probably everyone is also curious about it.
General statistics: total amount of deals; on what pairs trades were mainly opened; number of profitable deals, number of losing deals, average value of a profitable trade in pips, loss-making trade in pips, average time of holding a profitable and loss-making trade, etc.
Purpose: Development and improvement of automated trading tools.
Besides general statistics, I personally as a developer of automated trading systems and probably others as well, would be interested to understand if there are Expert Advisors that can be used for real trading in the Championship and what their characteristics are. For this purpose I think
can evaluate them by the following criteria:
1. The number of performed deals must be greater than a certain number, for example 10
(Otherwise, it is difficult to say anything about the Expert Advisor).
2. Obligatory SL or other way to limit losses.
3. The ratio of average profit trade to average loss trade must be two or more.
4. Percentage of profitable trades should be 50 or more.
( 2-4 points ensure the steady growth of the deposit, no large drawdowns.)
5.
The number of points earned by the Expert Advisor during a month multiplied by the cost of a point should exceed the certain threshold, for example, 300 $*pips.
It would be good to publish statistics on Expert Advisors that meet all five requirements at once, but there cannot be many of them.
Purpose: studying of characteristics of Expert Advisors capable of working in real trading.
I've said it before - MT-4 comes with a simple EA on a single MA, optimise it on a semi-annual interval and you'll see a profitable, "already written" MTS.
Yes... The thought has crossed my mind. Going around in circles. You study the indicators, the experts. You test them, check them. All in all, years pass but the conclusion is the same - it feels like you start from the beginning :)))))
I have been trading for a long time. I have formalized the rules and I have been trading. I trade manually. I cannot say that it is profitable, but it is stable. I have millions of books on technical and fundamental analysis in my head. Trading rules are simple, and they do not take into account 0.00001 per cent of all knowledge. What I have achieved over the years is a cold attitude to both profits and stop-losses.
Regardless of your current successes, previous experiences are never useless. But everyone and in any business has ups and downs. At the same time, if a trader keeps at it, it means that he needs it.
Besides general statistics, I personally, as a developer of automated trading systems, as I probably want to know if there are Expert Advisors in the Championship that can be used for real trading, and if there are, what characteristics they have. For this purpose I believe there is a possibility to
evaluate them according to the following criteria:
1. The number of transactions carried out must be greater than a certain, for example 10
(Otherwise it is difficult to say anything about the Expert Advisor).
2. Obligatory SL or other way to limit losses.
3. The ratio of average profit trade to average loss trade must be two or more.
4. Percentage of profitable trades should be 50 or more.
( 2-4 points ensure the steady growth of the deposit, no large drawdowns.
5. The number of points earned by the Expert Advisor in a month, multiplied by the cost of a point, should exceed a certain threshold, for example, the price of a point.
exceed a certain threshold, for example, 300*pips.
It would be good to publish statistics on Expert Advisors that meet all five specified requirements.
Purpose: studying characteristics of Expert Advisors that are able to work in real money.
You view statistics as CONFIRMATION of your criteria of Expert Advisor profitability. In fact, both testing of Experts and statistics of Experts' work should help to CONFIRM these criteria. You have put the cart before the horse.
Your points need to be reworded to help you answer the question: "What is a profitable EA? What is it? What are the parameters?"
1. How many trades do you need to make a serious profit in terms of value. For example, to become a Championship leader.
In this context, it is interesting to review the statistics on the Championship leaders (top ten) by weeks until the end of the Championship in dynamics. In other words, add the column of transactions number to the current Leaderboard.
2. At what level are the losing trades of the Championship leaders limited (in points)? The method of loss limitation does not really matter. This can be a Stop Loss or a market reversal or some other methods, including the direct closing of positions (without a stop loss) upon reaching a certain level of losses. It is important to obtain statistics on the success of the leaders. To do this, it is sufficient to obtain statistics about the level of losses (in points) of CLOSED losing trades.
At the same time we need to provide statistics of closing level (in pips) of profitable trades and ratio of profit and stop levels (irrespective of method of closing positions, only according to the fact of already closed positions).
3. Provide statistics on the number of profitable and losing trades and their ratio. Provide statistics on the balances of profitable and losing trades, their ratio.
4. Percentage of profitable trades of the Championship leaders by weeks (dynamics of results).
5. Number of points gained by the Championship leaders (regardless of the balance in dollar terms) by week (dynamics of results).
The Expert Advisor that meets all five points at once should be found in the TOP-10 of the Championship leaders each week. :))
At present the Expert Advisors are leading with maximal risk, and they can hardly be used in such a form in real trading. At the same time, surely there are good EAs whose authors are afraid of risks and trade with small lots. But these EAs are not at the forefront yet, and they are difficult to find. With the same risks they would be the first.
I would like to see/evaluate the performance of Expert Advisors.
To do this, you can calculate the profit per unit of account turnover.
I.e. Balance/Closed Lots.
Another variant of estimation, taking into account the time of staying in the market.
(The less time the system is in the market - the lower the risks).
It can be calculated as Balance/A,
where A = Amount per Closed Position (Position Size*(Time Opened - Time Opened))/(Time Now - Time Started)
time is probably better to count in days.
1. How many trades are needed to make a serious profit in terms of value. For example, to become the Championship leader.
In this context, it is interesting to review the statistics on the Championship leaders (top ten leaders) by weeks up to the end of the Championship in dynamics. In other words, add the column of transactions number to the current Leaderboard.
2. At what level are the losing trades of the Championship leaders limited (in points)? The method of loss limitation does not really matter. This can be a Stop Loss or a market reversal or some other methods, including the direct closing of positions (without a stop loss) upon reaching a certain level of losses. It is important to get statistics on the success of the leaders.
4. Percentage of actual profitable trades performed by the Championship leaders by week (result dynamics).
5. Number of points earned (regardless of the balance in dollar terms) by the Championship leaders.
I am not really interested in the Championship leaders, as I am interested in Expert Advisors
I am interested in experts who are able to work on real money.
capable of working in the real world.
You should not be so categorical about it.
Firstly, all these statistics can be found not only for the leaders, but for all participants in the Championship. Whether you like the second or third top ten, or maybe the bottom one... Who prevents you from looking at it, if the statistics are for all participants.
Secondly, everything is very subjective. I know many traders or investors who do not want to have a trading system or Expert Advisor with guaranteed profits for a year or their whole life, but with minimal risk. They do not consider Forex for that at all. For a more reliable investment there are many other ways (I'm not going to tell you them). Forex will always remain a RISKy market! So why try to make money on this market with a minimum percentage. You need to take advantage of the advantages of Forex, not its disadvantages. I know people who invest their money in Forex trading. As a rule, it's far from their last money. They knowingly give this money for Forex with BIG interest, bearing in mind all the risks of investment. And they insist that the risk and the interest are MAXIMUM, and the period of investment is MINIMUM. And the term of the Championship, three months, is an interesting term for risky operations. And if, personally, you want something else, it does not mean that everyone is interested.
However, let's just talk about statistics, and how to use its results is a personal matter.
IMHO the main criterion for evaluating MTS over a given time period is
recovery factor=period end balance sheet profit/max equity drawdown over the period.
The best Expert Advisor of the Championship will be the Expert Advisor with the highest FS value.
Another thing, I already wrote somewhere here that 3 months is a very short period for evaluation.
By the way, it would be great to add this indicator, as well as the maximum equity drawdown to the standard tester report...
Secondly, everything is highly subjective. I know many traders or investors who do not want to have a trading system or Expert Advisor with guaranteed profits for a year or their whole life, but with minimal risk. They do not consider Forex for that at all. For a more reliable investment there are many other ways (I'm not here to tell you what they are). Forex will always remain a RISKy market! So why try to make money on this market with a minimum percentage. You need to take advantage of the advantages of Forex, not its disadvantages. I know people who invest their money in Forex trading. As a rule, it's far from their last money. They deliberately give this money to Forex for a HUGE interest, bearing in mind all the risks of investment. And they insist that the risk and interest are MAXIMUM, and the period of investment is MINIMUM.
It's better to go to a casino with that in mind. Imho of course.
Secondly, everything is very subjective. I know a lot of traders or investors who don't want a trading system or Expert Advisor at all, with guaranteed profits for a year or their whole life, but with minimal risk. They do not consider Forex for that at all. For a more reliable investment there are many other ways (I'm not going to tell you them). Forex will always remain a RISKy market! So why try to make money on this market with a minimum percentage. You need to take advantage of the advantages of Forex, not its disadvantages. I know people who invest their money in Forex trading. As a rule, it's far from their last money. They knowingly give this money to Forex for a BIG interest, bearing in mind all the risks of investing. And they insist that the risk and interest are MAXIMUM, and the investment term is MINIMUM.
It's better to go to a casino with that in mind. Imho of course.
By the way, someone will be left with 40 thousand dollars after the Championship, and you will be left with your thoughts... :))
And Sorres, and all those who have earned BIG money on Forex, were lucky to be there in the first place. Their big earnings were not the result of long and reliable trading, but lightning-fast operations on the currency market with big risk. Sure, there have been bankrupts among them, but not those who dream of secure trading.
And with the sums that many Forex traders "operate" with there's nothing to do in a casino at all.