FOMC 21.09.2016 - page 2

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GS10:
The probability of Fed interest rate hike, taking into account the current situation on the currency market and the gold market is negative -6.7%.Taking into account the global financial flows is not enough ripe situation Index=-0.65 (the index must be positive and greater than 4% to raise the interest rate).Considering the fundamental analysis INDEX JOBLESSUSA=
I apologize for not understanding, but is it for gold (XAU/USD)? And what is the Real Time Index?
Is it all in excel?
  • If free, it's better to post it here or in CodaBase,
  • If you pay for it and have a subscription to a third-party resource, then better go to Market or Signals
  • If it's just a fundamental analysis, then, although I'm not an expert in fundamental analysis, but ... I just do not understand ... What is the index, where are all the numbers from, how is it calculated ...

Either clarify or I will delete the thread.

 
Evgeny Belyaev:
Probability may fluctuate between 0 and 100%. Probability cannot be a negative value.

Depending on how you determine the value =100%, in terms of prediction it is your personal approach because if you have adopted it it does not mean you are not wrong! My estimation method is based on the fact that the market is currently showing. It means that I can see what the market is thinking and how it behaves in relation to these statistics. The scale is simple: below "0" or above. It doesn't matter mathematically whether it is 0% or 100%. This method gives a definite answer and not a relative one.

 
new-rena:

Everything is relative and so is the probability. For example a scale of -0.5 to 0.5...

That said, I will assume that the best probability is greater than zero. And indeed - more than 50% (the inverse of 0 to 100%) is enough. It's like a controlling shareholding).

Perhaps you mean a scale of -100, 0, +100, in %:

a) -100 - decrease;

b) 0 - no change;

c) +100 - increase.

 
Moved the post from the new branch to this old one (and deleted the new branch).

Let there be one branch with "confusion" (rather than two) :)

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

FOMC

GS10, 2016.09.21 10:47

Fundamental levels Buy 1.1137-1.1438



 
Sergey Golubev:
Moved the post from the new thread to this old one (and deleted the new thread).

Let there be one branch with "confusion" (rather than two) :)

Moderator works great)
 
Price is already 1.1149 and he says to buy at 1.1137 with a target of 1.1438 .... and on which timeframe - it is not clear, on a closed bar or open, or the peak on this news - then it is too early ...
 
I attached the indicator Maxigen from KodaBase on the chart and RSI with two muwings, and it looks like, if on the H4 timeframe, buy if the price breaks 1.1213 on the closed bar with the nearest target 1.1284, and sell if it breaks 1.1122 down.



And no your probably paid excel file with (I think) paid signals (MT5 is free, CodaBase is free, and muwings and RSI are included with MT5).
 

And if on the daily chart, the same levels:

  • if the daily bar closes above 1.1284, that would mean a resumption of the primary uptrend (you can do a buy),
  • and if the daily bar closes below 1.1122, breaking through the 200 SMA downwards (this 200 SMA as though divides the chart into a primary uptrend with the primary downtrend), it will be the beginning of the reversal to the bearish (downtrend) (you can do a sell).



And if you do - just buy and levels without explanations, then it turns out not those or fundamental analysis, but trading signals, and in the case of the signals - do not usually trade exactly by levels, and make a stepback of several four-digit pips (or several tens of points), that is - get a sell below 1.1120, and buy higher, for example 1.1290 on a daily timeframe for a closed bar.

 
I'm promoting his thread and he (the topicstarter) keeps quiet ...
 

Last time I took moves in both directions with the whole deposit.

It was clear from the volume that purchases were well cut by sales and vice versa.

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