Experts: 20 pips a day opposite "yesterday's trend" - page 2
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i ran some test with ALL the possible trading hours,
but everytime a lose a lot of $$.
I used the history data downloaded from Metatrader (Metaquotes Software Corp)
Can you tell me what is wrong?
Thank you =)
Hi Navodar,
i ran some test with ALL the possible trading hours,
but everytime a lose a lot of $$.
I used the history data downloaded from Metatrader (Metaquotes Software Corp)
Can you tell me what is wrong?
Thank you =)
Hard to say, maybe a data from different brokers are so different, that this EA cannot handle it. I have no idea what is your case.
Unfortunatelly I have no time to make wider test with data from more brokers now, so I cannot help you. I used a data from XTB broker's demo account. If you could provide some more details of your test, would be helpful.
What I can do at this time is to show you graph of some trades, so you can compare it with your data if it fits:
Other possibility is I can upload report of trades for this year, so you can compare it for whole year. Please check ZIP files attached to this article, when new version will be verified by moderators, since I cannot upload it as a comment.
IBFX test run 04/29/2008 to 10/24/2008
This is the resultes I got last night after optimizing with live IBFX history data 30m. Settings I changed:
string SYMBOL = "EURUSDm";
extern int TRADINGHOUR = 4;
extern double STOPLOSS = 78; //SL
extern double TRAILINGSTOP = 2; //
extern double TAKEPROFIT = 26; //TP
I am going to start it live tonight.
It did not open a trade last night I just got this see below would anybody have any suggestions for what might have cause this:
invalid ticket for OrderClose function
invalid price 1.30630000 for OrderClose function
IBFX test run 04/29/2008 to 10/24/2008
This is the resultes I got last night after optimizing with live IBFX history data 30m. Settings I changed:
string SYMBOL = "EURUSDm";
extern int TRADINGHOUR = 4;
extern double STOPLOSS = 78; //SL
extern double TRAILINGSTOP = 2; //
extern double TAKEPROFIT = 26; //TP
I am going to start it live tonight.
Good luck guy :-)
Be carefull with your MM. If you have not enough money on your account, this EA can drain it at the beginning because of Martingale built in. Have a look at this:
05.08.2008 - 31.08.2008
21.10.2008 - 30.10.2008
with 10.000$ should be no problem, or you can try micro account.
The beginning is most critical, for this EA.
Hello navodar,
tnx for sharing your code.
I have to say that I'm not a big fan of Martingale systems in Forex cause Martingale works great when your odds are 50-50... in other words when you are not likely to lose many bets in a row. Forex is not like this. "Trend is your friend" remember? ...this means that if the Market has a strong tendency to go down you shouldnt buy... there is no Martingale that it's gonna save you.
To prove my point I make you a simple abstraction:
think of a game which odds are very close to 50-50, take Blackjack for example. If you bet 1$ and lose it your next bet will be 2$... then still losing and you raise to 4$, then 8$, 16$, 32$, 64$, 128$, 256$... and so on till you win. When you win you take back all your money and you've gained 1$.
This is pure Martingale. In a real 50-50 odds game you can expect to have in average some 3 or 4 consecutive losses, occasionally more but still not a big number.
Now, if you run the optimizer you'll see that multiplicators come quite different and not in a logic sequence... this means that the optimizer just find numbers that are good for the distribution of bars in the current graph... in other words those coefficients have no general value and your system is going to collapse soon out of the optimization period. If Forex was a game with 50-50 odds where Martingale is applicable the optimizer would have found 2,4,8,16,32.
You can do something to help it. Just find a strategy that bring back your odds to 50-50... good luck with that :)
Cheers,
Zyp ;)
Hello navodar,
tnx for sharing your code.
I have to say that I'm not a big fan of Martingale systems in Forex cause Martingale works great when your odds are 50-50... in other words when you are not likely to lose many bets in a row. Forex is not like this. "Trend is your friend" remember? ...this means that if the Market has a strong tendency to go down you shouldnt buy... there is no Martingale that it's gonna save you.
To prove my point I make you a simple abstraction:
think of a game which odds are very close to 50-50, take Blackjack for example. If you bet 1$ and lose it your next bet will be 2$... then still losing and you raise to 4$, then 8$, 16$, 32$, 64$, 128$, 256$... and so on till you win. When you win you take back all your money and you've gained 1$.
This is pure Martingale. In a real 50-50 odds game you can expect to have in average some 3 or 4 consecutive losses, occasionally more but still not a big number.
Now, if you run the optimizer you'll see that multiplicators come quite different and not in a logic sequence... this means that the optimizer just find numbers that are good for the distribution of bars in the current graph... in other words those coefficients have no general value and your system is going to collapse soon out of the optimization period. If Forex was a game with 50-50 odds where Martingale is applicable the optimizer would have found 2,4,8,16,32.
You can do something to help it. Just find a strategy that bring back your odds to 50-50... good luck with that :)
Cheers,
Zyp ;)
Great comment. In fact you are right. Optimalisation is just search for best combination in history. I agree with you that real martingale has no mean in forex.
My first idea for this EA was to increase order lots after loss, because my first version of this EA had 7/1 win/loss ratio and it looked like good idea. Then I wanted to optimalise it for a longer history and I tried to implement even more increased order lots after loss trade.
I know disadvantage of martingale and that's why I only implemented maximum increase of standard odrer size 5 times. And for this system, with 5 increased orders after one loss, the worse thing to happen to this EA is six loss in a row. That would be in fact, that this EA's idea is false. And that is what I asked in my original article 10 pips a day opposite "yesterday's trend". If an idea I use has some logical background.
I do not believe this EA can be profitable for many years because before 2004 it went down, so market changed. Question is when it will change again?
Also I believe current multiplicators are set on the best values for historical data - taken statistically. And I expect this statistcs remains similar also for near future.
But I am really happy for your comment especially today (see picture below)
20.10.2008 - 31.10.2008
I hope we all realise nothing is sure in this business.
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TY thunder597...I installed tonight with the m in the string and a tradinghour of 4....this will be interesting to watch...
Thanks Again,
ES