A-B-C-D Trade - page 69
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Next support levels:
138.2 = 1.3336
161.8 = 1.3331
Remember that 1.333 is significant pivot as mentioned, and large bounce up should occur in that area.
Currently respecting tighter low plot and resting at 138.2
138.2 = 1.3343
161.8 = 1.3331
From session Low 1.3363
Session High = 1.3418
Strength of downward thrust blows by all support, with smaller than anticipated bounce at 1.3333 area to 1.3346 only, before continueing its assault of Euro.
!.3319 is Gann 360-degree support. This is mental note for ourselves to share this indicator.
Euro session move down:
EUR/USD 15=min Swings 15:45/23:30/02:20 with FE 161.8 = 1.3291
Pullback was 78.6%
Back up:
14:30 GMT: Completed a full retrace to session high 1.3412, with technically perfect ABC to FE 100, after a 61.8% pullback.
For move down during Euro session:
The "I'm Not Sure" plot:
5-min chart for better view of any swings en route down.
High = 08:00 1.3412 This is European session open cnadle .
Low = 08:45 1.3341 This is first pullback after break of Asian Low, as witnessed by next blue candle. If fact it's the last pullback before bottom.
138.2 = 1.3314
161.8 = 1.3297 (hit 09:05) Time of economic data release.
Nov 25th EUR/USD 15-Min Chart
1) Pair made quick swings pointing down with ABC:
A = 08:30 high 1.3552
B = 09:00 low 1.3311 (Doji Candle)
C = 09:15 high 1.3314
Asian low = 1.3306
FE 100 =1.3285 (hit10:15)
Using the fib retracement tool produce the same levels with 138.2 & 161.8 as the ABC tool’s FE 78.6 & FE 100. Leave this plot on for the moment.
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2) Pair reversed at the last extension’s FE 100 per above #1 plot. Next swings up:
A = 10:15 low 1.3286
B = 12:00 high 1.3343
C = 13:15 low 1.3316 ( Doji Candle)
Asian high = 1.3357
FE 100 = 1.3374 (hit 15:30)
Regular extension 161.8 of 1.3378, produce by using retracement tool was just above and hit next candle.
Notice this is the same area as Plot #1 retracement tool 161.8 price of 1.3377.
Note: Remember, you should alter fib retracement tool levels by adding 138.2 & 161.8 extensions in BOTH direction. When adding in the possitive direction (expansion direction) you need to use:
-0.382 = Regular 138.2
-0.618 = Regular 161.8
For negative direction (retrace), which should be default:
1.382 = 138.2
1.618 = 161.8
**********
Catching up on previous day’s post-Euro session where we left off. After full retrace at end of Euro session, EUR/USD swings were 15:30/16:45/17:00, producing FE 78.6 = 1.3308 (hit 19:45). Pullback on Swing C was not perfect and just above 38.2 fib.
Using the fib retracement tool,and pulling from A to B, resulted in 138.2 of the same price 1.3308.
The 1.3308 area also was the 78.2 fib from Euro Low to High. We can see the 19:45 15-min candle close at that fib price of 1.3313.
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*******
Tomorrow data: German CPI.
Cheers and for those of you celebrating Thanksgiving - have a great one!
*****
Attached: EUR/USD 15-Min Chart with Plot #1 fib retracement.
From the perspective of the longer interval chart, we'll look at the 4-Hour. Use the fib retracement tool and pull from:
Plot #1
Low = Nov 16th 16:00 1.3448
High = Nov 22nd 04:00 1.3785
We can clearly see support at this plot's 138.2 extension from Nov 24th - 25th.
After identifying that, the obvious assumption is that the next support would be in the area of the 161.8 fib of 1.3240. The Nov 25th 04:00 candle got pretty close at 1.3246.
Plot #2
High = Nov 22nd 04:00 1.3785
Low = Nov 23rd 16:00 1.3360
138.2 = 1.3196 (hit 1.3200 Nov 26th 08:00 candle)
*******
As mentioned, if you add the extension levels per recent post, it doesn't matter which direction you pull the plot, the 138.2 and 161.8 will show up. This eliminates any confusion.
We also pointed out that using the longer interval charts will not always result in exact price hits at the fib levels. For more precision, we need to use the 5 or 15-min charts. This is called using a "trigger" chart, for entry and/or exit.
The longer interval charts will give us an idea of what the swing and position traders are looking at, for support & resistance (S&R).
If entry was made at the break of significant low 1.3448 (Nov 23rd 12:00 candle period), these 2 plots are what we would have as guidance for profit level(s).
This occurs after cycling through initial plot of 1.3781 to 1.3525 (pivot), that resulted in 161.8 = 1.3364. All we did after this plot was slide the low to the next pivot, per plot #2, which was obvious.
Attached is the 4-Hour chart with both plots in different colors.
How to trade the the bounce off of an extension fib.
Let’s look at the EUR/USD for Nov 25th
Using the fib retracement tool
Low = 10:15 1.3286
High = 08:30 1.3352
138.2 = 1.3377
After the pair bounced off the low, it pivoted at 12:00 1.3343. Plotting low to that high, we also arrive at a 161.8 in the same extension area as first plot.
We can trade the extension, but this discussion is analyzing trading the bounce off of the 138.2.
Now, let’sswitch the chart (with the plots staying on it) to a 1-Hour interval. We can see the 15:00 candle hitting the 138.2 fib. The next candle at 16:00 is a Doji with a near-colorless body, just one pip difference from open and close price. The next 17:00 candle is a Gravestone Doji.
The 2 Doji candles near the 138.2 means that, on the whole, the traders (market) are at a price level of indecision. The bulls are fighting with the bears to a point where neither is winning.
The opening of the next 1- Hour candle at 18:00 can be used for entry, at the price of 1.3374.
The stop-loss can be placed just above the 161.8 of 1.3393 from first plot. This made the risk about 22 pips.
To plot the take-profit levels, we will use the fib retracement tool and pull from low of 1.3286 and high of 1.3386.
1) The retrace fibs should be 23.6, 38.2, 50, 61.8, and 78.6.
2) Also of big significance is the previous high of 1.3352, hit twice during the 08:00 and 14:00 candles. Trading to this spot made reward = 20 net pips
3) Trading to the 1.3336 FIB SHARED BY BOTH PLOTS,
- the 1st plot’s 23.6
- the 2nd plot’s 50%
This level, we also saw a Doji candle at 00:00 when the Asian session opened, to denote a resting period or a period of indecision.
***
As we have mentioned in the past, a trader can always take majority profit at a conservative fib level and “trend the balance”. Obviously, not all bounces become full retraces or a new move, such as this exampl
This was an example of using doji candles as additional confirmation of a reversal off of an extension fib (resistance), as well as the take-profit level.
Posted a couple of great Gann indicators in the indicator thread of this web site.
https://www.mql5.com/en/forum/198881
The other day, while market was moving very strong to the downside, we said that the price of 1.3319 was support per a Gann indicator. We made that statement in advance of price movement to that level.
Attached is the chart with that highlighted.
As the FX market opened again, we were going to remind everyone that EUR/USD was sitting on an uptrend line (see daily chart). The pair has exploded upward upon open.
One plot with parameters from last week:
High = Nov 26th 1.3350
Low = Nov 26th 1.3246
Made extension to 138.2 Nov 26th 11:15 GMT, and this acted as support for balance of week. The bottom also was reflected by ABC plot's FE 127.
Today's open saw pair shoot up to plot's 78.6 of 1.3356. This price is also the 138.2 from longer interval plot:
Low = Nov 17th 1.3460
High = Nov 19th 1.3731
As well as the area of low from Nov 23rd.
Now sitting near the aforementioned area of 1.3319. Retracement fib from last significant high/low has 61.8% fib of 1.3315.
More later.