A-B-C-D Trade - page 73
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1.3122 area was key fib.
It is the 38.2 on a long-term daily
The Simple 200-MA
138.2 on daily
The 45-Degree on the 1 and 4-Hour Gann_SQ9
Early Asian will not usually have enough thrust, so let's monitor.
1.3106 - session low - testing now
1.3095 - previous pivot and the 67.5-degree
1.3066 - 90-degree
1.3047 - previous significant low
EUR/USD
Plot a trend line on the 1-Hour. Breaking that now, as well as 3rd test of support 1.3106.
Monitoring EUR/JPY cross correlation, as it is testing its support FE 100 of 110.18. If it breaks, can drag EUR/USD down.
Those following fibs:
61.8 = 1.3098 (just hit) en route to the 67.5-degree 1.3095
EUR/JPY bounced off an wide 138.2 0f 110.08 but both Euro crosses look committed to break current fib support levels
EUR/USD bounced off of its regular 161.8 extension 1.3088, based on 15-min chart plot:
High = 01:15 1.3135
Low = 02:45 1.3106
We had to lock in some profit at the 1.3095, as CHF data due 06:45 followed by other early European session data. Big one is ECB rate meeting and andy verbiage on debt situations.
Meanwhile looking for exit balance lots.
After the initial 06:45 CHF data, more European data resumed at 08:15, including EU GDP at 10:00.
Things took a break in front of the well anticipated 12:45 GMT ECB interest rate decision and verbiage. Although rate was not expected to change, traders awaited ECB position on bond purchasing, and any other PIIGS nations debt news.
ECB President Trichet did not commit to any bond buying, and overall did not say anything to merit moving the market per se.
U.S. Jobless Claims at 13:30 was negative, and reaction looked like a flight to safety into USD, driving pair lower by about 100 pips.
The initial fib plot was Asian Low to High. That produced a regular 161.8 extension, which was hit at 10:30 GMT producing a Gravestone Doji.
The push down after the Trichet non-event reached the opposite 138.2 at 16:00. Pair made a full retrace back up to the regular 138.2.
Positive U.S. Housing data at 15:00 prompted a modest 23.6% retrace heading into the end of the European session.
All in all, not a good day for swing or position traders. Day traders, however, can try to squeeze between data announcements, utilizing S&R tools.
Attached are:
1) 15-Min chart with markers denoting data releases.
2) 15-Min chart with Gann_SQ9 indicator showing support and resistance compliance. Angle setting on default 22.5-degree.
Edit: the 1st chart also has the indicator PAMA GannGrid, with trend line and break arrows. Grids not turned on.
Day full of data releases, with the big boy U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate at 13:30 GMT. Like a constant drum beat, with no room in between. Sideline day, since we don't trade the data.
After swimming in a tight range, early European trading has EUR/USD testing resistance of 1.3246 high established during U.S.
Earlier, Standard & Poor (Credit Rating Agency) made noise about possibly downgrading Portugal, as well as contemplating review of Greece.
It has been estimated that Greece would need its economy to grow 19% annually to properly service their new debt level. I hope I got that right. If that's accurate, it would be quite impossible, especially since it's also scheduled to contract 2%. A restructuring of the debt would be the next course of business.
Irish and Portuguese bonds were purchased by the ECB.
In May, 93% of Icelanders voted to reject debt proposal from the U.K. and Netherlands.
Iceland’s Debt Relief Tussle Risks Alienating IMF - BusinessWeek
Iceland Bank Creditors to Fight Debt Relief Measures - BusinessWeek
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