A-B-C-D Trade - page 31
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Observation:
EUR/USD holding on while British Pound hit with some negative data released at 08:30 GMT that is dragging down GBP/USD. Since there is some correlation with the 2 pairs, we are also seeing slight downward tilt since hitting 1.3241.
This trade scenario has a very tight stop-loss, just below the Pint C pivot.
Another low-impact data release due at 09:00, which is now. Low-impact is relative. Usually related to swing and position trading.
EUR/USD broke out of range and attempting to hold above the FE 61.8, ahead of our target FE 100 @ 1.3277.
Moved stop to break-even for now @ 1.3236.
We also have a 1-hour ABC pull that projects the FE 61.8 at 1.3277 (same as our short-term target pull).
EUR/USD retraced 38.2% and sitting around 1.3244 now at 11:15 GMT.
We have a high-impact U.S. data release at 12:30 GMT, and should get out.
That's a wrap for us. Fortunately we were in a position to trade the first extension prior to Euro session "open".
Although there might be a late rush to buy EUR/USd ahead of anticipated negative news for USD at 12:30, we do not consider it.
Cheers
One last note. Attached 5-min chart shows adjusted Point B and C, which explains that the reason pair stopped at 1.3261 was that it is the FE 61.8.
The black fibs are retracement levels, with last move retracing to 78.6 fib.
Can't comment blow-by-blow tonight during Euro session.
thus far, swings for possible breakout of Asian low:
A =01:30 high 1.3239
B = 06:05 low 1.3202
C = 06:55 high 1.3232
Asian Low = 1.3202
FE 100 = 1.3194
FE 127 = 1.3184
FE 161.8 = 1.3171 (target)
We also pulled retracement fibs:
Low = Aug 3rd 06:20 1.3146
High = Aug 3rd 10:10 1.3261
23.6 = 1.3234
38.2 = 1.3217
50 = 1.3203
61.8 = 1.3190
78.6 = 1.3171
On 07:30 GMT, pair currently at 1.3208, and we are 30 minutes from where we mark the European "open".
Data release, rated high-impact:
11:00 GMT: Bank of England Interest rate Decision - expected to be unchanged.
11:45 GMT: European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision - expected to be unchanged.
We should enter below round number 1.3200.
We should enter below round number 1.3200.
OK, breakout came 5 min early