A-B-C-D Trade - page 278
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Euro opens week with gap down, reportedly due to Euro Zone not being able to ratify the newest Greece debt talks.
EUR/JPY below Point B.
GBP/USD further down from Friday's close at the 78.6 horizontal and 88.6 fan. This pair dragged by EUR/USD.
Most pairs closed their gaps from the opening of the week and rebounded further in that direction after being range-bound during Asian..
Here are the 2 pairs (15-min session colors view with MML) making breakouts from Asian highs and extensions to the FE 200. Both also at MML levels.
The ABC swings were sharp and easy to see. Take low near end Asian session. In both cases, Swing C was a dip to the Asian high, which acted as support. These Swing C pivots were also at MML levels.
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The previously posted scenarios were dissolved due to the wide gaps down on EUR/JPY, etc.
Did this mean a trader is shut out? Not if trader learns more than just operating a system. Are you an "operator" or a trader?
Attached 1-hour AUD/USD utilizes MurreyMath1.0. Fib plot Jan 20th low and 22nd high.
Price respected MML levels 2/8th and 3/8th while channeling most of last week. Breakout from this level started Friday, and reached just about to the 4/8th.
Along with pairs that trade in the same direction, price dipped at week's open.
Monday action elevated pair to the 5/8th during European, which is also the 161.8 extension.
To set-up for European, we can see that the largest pullback was from week's open. Therefore the fib plot uses that as the high.
Here's the 1-hour Gold Wolfe Wave pattern. We can see the indicator labeling the Swing 5 that is non-confirming, as it should be at the 1-3 trendline or thereabouts.
However, it can be of assistance. Similar to how we can use the ZUP to view fib measurements between points, even when a pattern has not materialized.
We can see price bounced up off 1-4 trendline (just above it). The 4 Wolfe Wave swings thus far are:
1) Jan 18th 09:00
2) Jan 18th 16:00
3) Jan 19th 10:00
4) Jan 19th 19:00
5) look for it near the 1-3 trendline (1-3 TL)
There was also bullish divergence at that 1-4 TL, pairing up with the indicator EFT.
The current rise is running out of steam near-term (intra-day). This can be seen with the RSI(4) making lower highs, as marked by a trendline on pic.
We can plot fibs to see extension levels, using Swing 3 and most recent hit to 1-4 TL area (Friday's low).
A natural bounce (and possible reversal) will occur at the 1-3 TL. That would be the Wolfe Wave Swing 5.
Some traders know how to take advantage of the profit taking at the end of a session.
Attached is split-screen of EUR/USD. Left is 15-min session colors with ABC. We added the enxt ratio above FE 200, which is FE 238.2. Price hit this during the 15:30 candle period.
End of the European session is 15:59.
On the right is a 1-hour with PSQ9. We have a fib plot (gray) based
High = Jan 20th 07:00 1.29853 Low = Jan 22:00 22:00 1.28743
We also made a directional fib plot for retracement (yellow):
Low = Jan 23rd 07:00 1.28843 High = Jan 23rd 16:00 high 1.30515
Price made a 161.8 extension, just above the Mars 0-degree and Moon 225-degree intersection. This is additional resistance to the 15-min plot.
The scalper will trade to the
138.2 = 1.30266 (gray)
23.6% retracement = 1.30120 (yellow) near gray 127.2
38.2% retracement = 1.29876 (near Mars 315-degree)
Attached is 4-Hour USD/CAD with the Wolfe Wave indicator. We can see the imperfection with Point 2 being too extreme outside of the 1-4 TL. Nevertheless, it can assist in visualizing S&R.
The dotted light blue horizontal line is the Dec 8th low of 1.00510. Price reached this level at the 1-3 TL, with the indicator labeling it as Point 5 for the time being.
This is the bounce trade on a BUY position. We plot the Andrew’s pitchfork, using Point 1-4-5. This results in the middle fork as resistance, and near the take-profit (TP) target.
Horizontal fib retracement plot uses high/low of Point 4 to 5. Its 38.2% retrace fib = 1.00930, which is just below the middle fork of the APF.
Stop-loss 10 pips below support = 1.0041. BUY filling about 1.0055. TP = 1.0090.
Reward/risk = 35/14 and ratio 2.5:1
Entry during 15:00, and exit during 17:00 period.
Slew of data early European, through 10:00, then 15:00 Richmond FED.
That's about the all clear window: 10:30 - 15:00 for EUR/USD and any pairs in correlation.
Meanwhile, attached is USD/JPY 4-hour Wolfe Wave pattern. 5 swings were:
1) Jan 11th 08:00 high 77.031
2) Jan 13th 08:00 low 76.654
3) Jan 15th 21:00 high 77.047
4) Jan 17th 08:00 low 76.542
5) Jan 19th 16:00 high 77.311
After the large move down from Dec 28th through Jan 4th, price stayed range-bound in a band between the 0/8th MML and the 4/8th. The swing from Point 4 to 5 touched those extremes.
Once again, we plot an Andrew's Pitchfork (APF) using Points 1-4-5.
Price dipped below the 1-3 TL during Friday's 16:00 period, and touched the middle fork with the candle's wick. At that point, there was only about 4 hours left to the end of the week, thus exit for day traders.
Not much meat on that bone (17 pips), so be selective.
Since then, we can see price respect the APF and 1-3 TL. It is now at the APF's upper fork.
This is a 5-min chart of breakout of Asian Low 1.2986 (3/8th MML), with session colors & MML. ABC swings: 09:15/11:00/11:40.
Breakout at 13:30, and hit to FE 100 1.2953 during 13:50. This also 1/8th MML.
Downturn reportedly attributed to S&P comments about Greece, saying a default is a matter of when not if. They also added that it does not necessarily mean the Euro zone will become unbankable. S&P will downgrade Greece to selective default grade.
Price has remained between the 2 levels since.
S/L options include just above the 4/8th MML 1.3000 (round number).
R/R about 30/17
Once you have a handle on these tools, reviewed here, it will come naturally to you. You will be able to plot very quickly, and know which is telling you a story.
Recent posts returned to the original subject of the breakout of Asian high/low. The difference is now, you can used multiple tools and techniques.
Attached is 30-min EUR/GBP with MML. Fib plot uses Asian Low to European High.
Breakout of Asian Low .83507 occurred earlier than EUR/USD. The 12:15 candle (on 15-min) closed below the Asian Low at .83493.
Your fib extension levels should be 127.2, 138.2, 161.8, 200.
After a bounce off the 138.2, the 13:30 candle accelerated extension to the the 200% fib of .83114.
S/L options include just above 4/8th MML of .83618, making risk = 15 pips with cushion.
TP1 @ 161.8% fib of .83265 = R/R 20/15
TP2 @ 200% fib of .83115 = R/R 35/15
Let's take the last posted USD/CAD chart, which was a 4-hour with Wolfe Wave and Andrew's Pitchfork (APF).
Drop down to the 1-hour chart. Move APF handle plot to Jan 19th 13:00 low 1.00695. The other 2 plot points remain at Jan 22nd high and Jan 23rd low. The WW plot labels at Point 3-4.
Price broke resistance of 1.00971 (pink) during 09:00 hour. Sitting on the sidelines, we want to look for other opportunities in that aforementioned window between 10:30 - 15:00.
Adjusting the APF resulted in its middle fork as resistance and potential bounce/reversal. The level is also the 78.6% retrace of swings 3-4 on zig-zag of W.W. The 4/8th MML (not shown) is also there. Price did reverse during the 13:00-14:00 candles, after 13:30 CAD Retail Sales data.
Entry open of 14:00 = 1.01304
S/L above 1.01399 high + cushion = 15-pip risk
Price bounced down and now back to former resistance, and now support level. 3/8th MML there. Net reward about 30 pips.
R/R 2:1