USDCAD news - page 30
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USD/CAD: Loonie Trades Muted Ahead of BoC Rate Decision The USD/CAD pair was trading flattish on Wednesday around C$1.340, with further volatility expected during the rest of day.
Oil was continuing in its current upward momentum and the WTI benchmark was trading 1.5% higher, around $37.10, but the loonie failed to capitalize on this fact and remained muted against the greenback.
During the North American session, the Bank of Canada is expected to keep the main refinancing rate unchanged at 0.5%, however, investors will focus more on the statement following, which might sound dovish, considering the latest strengthening of the Canadian dollar.
"January's CPI inflation print beat expectations at 2.0% y-o-y on both a core and headline basis against the consensus forecasts of 1.9% and 1.8% respectively. Only if oil prices move back into the mid-20s and stay there, then the risk of a rate cut will rise significantly," analysts at Rabobank said on Wednesday.
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USD/CAD forecast for the week of March 14, 2016 The USD/CAD pair initially tried to rally during the course of the week but found enough resistance of the 1.35 level to turn things back around and form a bit of a negative candle. With this, we believe that the market is going to try to grind down to the 1.30 level, but it’s probably going to be easier to trade this market from the shorter-term charts such as a daily chart, or even perhaps the 4-hour chart. We look for exhaustion above in order to start selling again unless of course we can break above the 1.35 handle.
USD/CAD: Pair Begins Week with Gains as Focus Shifts to Fed & Oil The USD/CAD pair was up 0.40% and trading at C$1.3268 on Monday, coming up from a four-months low hit on Friday.
The so-called loonie, which is a commodity-based currency, was following in the footsteps of falling oil prices amid OPEC’s downwardly revised demand projections. Global demand for crude will rise to 94.23 million barrels per day (bpd) in all of 2016, according to the OPEC report. The latest forecast is about 200,000 barrels lower than the prognosis issued in February.
WTI futures tumbled 3.14% to $37.29 per barrel on Monday and Brent was down 1.81% and trading at $39.66 per barrel.
"CAD is soft, weakening in tandem with oil prices ahead of key risk events later this week. All eyes are on Wednesday’s FOMC and Friday’s domestic retail sales and CPI. CAD continues to be driven by oil and the broader tone of risk appetite, leaving it vulnerable to turbulence surrounding Wednesday’s Fed meeting," said Eric Theoret, currency strategist at Scotiabank.
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USD/CAD forecast for the week of March 21, 2016 The USD/CAD pair initially tried to rally but the market turned back around to test the uptrend line during the week. On top of that, we tested the 1.30 level and it appears that it has held that this market up. With that being the case, we could turn around and we also have to keep in mind that the Friday candle is of course a hammer. If we break above the top of the Friday session, the market should continue to grind its way higher, but we realize that longer-term traders may be a little bit turned off by this chart.
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USD/CAD: Look To Add Bearish Exposure On S/T Recovery USD/CAD technical set-up points to the possibility of being the first leg of a correction, notes Goldman Sachs.
"In January, the market completed a multi-year 5-wave sequence that had started at the Jul. ’11 low. This look very similar to the 5-waves on the Trade Weighted USD chart. For this reason, need to be careful of getting too carried away with a move higher.
Eventually, want to see a short-term recovery as an opportunity to add bearish exposure," GS advises.
"A complete ABC correction typically ends up in wave 4 territory of the preceding cycle; in this case wave IV ranged between 1.2835 and 1.19," GS adds.
USD/CAD: Loonie Stuck at Fresh 1-Week Low Amid Weak Oil Prices The so-called loonie dropped 0.29% and traded at C$1.3241 against the greenback, after hitting a fresh one-week high of C$1.3295 earlier in the session.
Lack of Canadian macro releases this week left the commodity-based loonie more vulnerable to oil price changes.
Crude fell once again on Thursday after steep losses in the previous session, as crude reserves in the US hit a new record high. Futures for WTI were down 0.28% at $39.68 per barrel.
The Baker Hughes US weekly rig count data is due later in the day and is likely to be another market mover.
Meanwhile, traders also absorbed American macro releases, which revealed that US durable goods for February dropped to -2.8% from 4.2% booked in January, with the ex transport gauge declining to -1.0% from a revised 1.2%. Shipments of capital goods (excluding military hardware, but including aircrafts), which provide input into the GDP estimate, fell 2.5% last month, following a 2.8% hike in January.
In addition, initial jobless claims ticked higher to 265,000 from 259,000 while continued claims notably improved to 2,179K from a revised 2,218K booked in the previous week.
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USD/CAD forecast for the week of April 4, 2016 The USD/CAD pair broke down during the course of the week, breaking down below the 1.30 level. However, the market looks as if we are finding enough support between the uptrend line and the 1.30 level that a break above the top of the candle for the week would be a very bullish sign. It appears that we are trying to make some type of major decision now, so at this point it’s probably best to simply sit on the sidelines and wait to see which way we break.
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USD/CAD: Loonie Dragged Down by Oil Prices The USD/CAD pair was up 0.58% and trading at C$1.3163, after the loonie struggled amid another decline in oil prices.
Oil prices tumbled amid supply worries ahead of the OPEC meeting. Futures for WTI declined 2.04% to $36.98 per barrel, while Brent contracts lost 1.73% and traded at $39.16 per barrel.
"A weak dollar and a US inventories draw saw oil prices jump on Wednesday but profit taking and a switch in focus back to the meeting in Doha this month has prompted a pull back," said Jasper Lawler, analyst with CMC Markets.
On Thursday, traders also digested the American initial jobless claims release, which showed an improvement to 267,000 from 276,000. Meanwhile, continuing claims worsened to 2,191K from 2,172K booked previously.
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USD/CAD forecast for the week of April 11, 2016 The USD/CAD pair initially tried to rally during the course of the week, but turn right back around to form a bit of a shooting star. The shooting star sits right at the 1.30 level, where a nice uptrend line certainly shows strength. With this being the case, if we can break down below the shooting star, that would be a very negative sign and perhaps the beginning of a major trend change. On the other hand, if we break above the top of the shooting star for the week, that would be an extraordinarily bullish sign.