A-B-C-D Trade - page 274
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Attached is 30-min GOLD with Ichimoku, with its 3 MAs removed.
Price made a 200% expansion (1659) to the upside off the B-C swing of
High = Jan 11th 09:00 1645.70 Low = Jan 11th 13:00 1632.60
We can see price respect the upper boundaries of the Ichimoku cloud. The diagonal red Moon 90-degree also acted as S&R.
The top formed a BAJA bearish divergence, with peaks at 12:00 and 14:30. Price probed slightly higher during the 15:00 candle period, before declining.
S/L 1662.00
Entry = 15:00 1658.50
TP1 = 161.8 1653.80 R/R = 3.70/3.50 (1:1)
TP2 = 138.2 1650.70 R/R = 6.80/3.50 (2:1)
Should entry be made using the 15-min EFT trigger, it took place at the open of the 15:30 period, and price of 1655.80.
By then, we would have seen the top of 1660.90 for stop-loss placement. The entry was about 3.00 worse, and changes the R/R, therefore trader would need to target at least the TP2.
ICHIMOKU CLOUDS ARE PROJECTED IN ADVANCE.
Attached is the same GOLD chart, highlighting the 4/8th, 6/8th, and 8/8th levels.
The Jan 11th 09:00 peak is the 31.4% extension of fib channel (FC) plot using 4/8th to 6/8th.
The Jan 12th 15:00 peak is the 31.4% extension of FC plot using 6/8th to 8/8th.
This calculation can be used for stop-loss placement, entry, or exit.
Attached is a split-screen.
Left chart is 15-min session colors, MML, and fib plot using:
Low = Jan 12th 13:30 1.27132 High = 15:00 1.28378
The low was initial action related to U.S. data that came out negative.
Right is 1-hour PSQ9 with wide fib plot:
High = Jan 5th 07:00 1.29427 Low = Jan 8th 23:00 1.26649
We can see the horizontal green Mars 180-degree (1.2815) act as resistance twice on Jan 6th and 10th, leading up to today's action. Therefore the set-up was to trade the bounce down for a few pips.
The 15-min chart shows the 4/8th MML at 1.2817, just about the same as the Mars 180. The initial target would be the 3/8th of 1.2787.
Stop-loss options include:
- placement just above the wide fib 61.8 1.2837, as can been seen on the 1-hour (yellow)
- the B-C swing's 200% of 1.2840
- Moon 225-degree 1.2847
We can't place the S/L at the 5/8th, as the R/R would become less than 1:1 after spread & cushion.
Once we saw price rise above the Mars 180, to mark the high of 1.2838, we need to reposition the high of the retrace plot on the 15-min.
This resulted in the 38.2% = 1.2790, and just about the same as the targeted 3/8th. Price did indeed decline to this level, and pivoted back up to the high.
The 2nd chart illustrates the ABC plot using the swings during the European session on the 15-min. This produced:
FE 138.2 = 1.2822 (hit 14:45)
FE 161.8 = 1.2840 (another S/L option)
Thus, the retrace plot is based on the C-D swing.
***
This whole exercise is an example of staying on the sidelines during major data, but having a plan to trade off reactions/S&R.
Chart on the right is a 1-hour PSQ9 with fib plot Low = 1-12 13:00 1.27132 High = 17:00 1.28435
Price made a 127.2% extension (1.28789) to the upside during this morning's 06:00 period. The horizontal red Mars 225-degree also there.
The 07:00 candle was a Doji and as with the previous candle, closed at the diagonal Moon 225-degree.
Price declined back to the High just now during the 08:00 period. Gross distance between levels for this short is 35 pips.
Chart on the left is 15-min session colors with fib retrace plot using Asian session Low/High. The TP level is the 50% fib, which was hit during the 08:00 candle period.
The top was also near the 6/8th MML. Optional TP1 for conservative exit @ 38.2% fib of 1.28510.
S/L options include (see 1-hour) above 138.2% of 1.28933 (white) or wide 78.6% 1.28833 (yellow).
There is some measurable additional risk based on holding position through the opening of the European session at 08:00. At least, tighten stop-loss.
On the daily EUR/USD chart, we applied MurreyMath1.0, and made a SDC plot using Nov 25th and Jan 8th.
We can see the SDC upper channel align with highs during early December and then again on Jan 4th. The low of Dec 14th was at the lower channel and this week (Jan 10-11th) saw respect of the mid-channel.
This means the upper channel, intersected by the 1/8th MML is resistance for today, at price 1.29395. Looking left, we see this 1/8th level act as S&R previously.
Lurking orders at that level would SELL and take-profit at mid-channel mean. If that occurs Sunday/Monday, price would intersect 0/8th MML 1.26953.
After illustrating the pairs 127.2 extension, and pullback to the High, EUR/USD experienced two waves of downward pressure.
The first occurrence during the 10:00 hour came after the market reportedly was not satisfied with the Italian bond auction result. Looking at the 1-hour chart, we can see that candle break 1.2800 support.
The second wave was spurred by reported warnings of more downgrades in the EU sector. The 15-min chart is labeled at the 13:45 candle that was the start of the spike down, just ahead of the U.S. session.
There also was a developing story about the Greek debt talks faltering, as per the linked article.
Back to the technical front, the fib plot needed to be adjusted on the 15-min to reflect the new pivot lows. The first move was to the 10:45 low of 1.27735.
The next pivot low was the 12:00 1.27649. This level is the 161.8 extension form the original plot using the Asian Low/high.
Bounce traders took this back up to the 23.6% retrace on this new pot. The 23.6 level is similar to the 127.2 on the original plot.
The 1-hour shows powerful candles to the downside, closing at the 127.2 and 138.2 fibs, prior tot he probe beyond the 161.8.
The near-horizontal red Mars 45-degree is currently acting as support, and same as the 200% extension on the new 15-min plot.
This was panic selling. Those that held short positions obviously benefited. Scalpers took their profits.
The breakout of the Asian Low had to deal with the whipsaw during the 10:00 hour. When plotting based on the narrow Asian High/Low, the pullback did not exceed the 23.6% level.
When measuring a smaller retrace, use the 10:20 candle 1.28427 high on the 5-min. This was also the 50% level of Asian price activity. The low was 1.27877. This resulted in seeing the pullback to its 61.8% fib of 1.28217.
The subsequent extension off this plot went to the 127.2% extension 1.27727 level. Price consolidated and drifted to the 138.2.
Next, we have the plunge that started at 13:45. On the 5-min for better viewing, this can be plotted using that high of 1.27905 and the 14:10 low pivot.
The subsequent extension was to this plot's 161.8 of 1.26225.
Debt talks falter, Greeks warn of disaster - Yahoo! Finance
Or cut and paste:
finance.yahoo.com/news/greek-debt-swap-talks-end-141715845.html
The linked article reports that France has confirmed that it lost its AAA credit rating by S&P.
BBC News - France confirms loss of top AAA credit rating
or cut and paste: bbc.co.uk/news/business-16552623
The linked article reports that France has confirmed that it lost its AAA credit rating by S&P.BBC News - France confirms loss of top AAA credit ratingor cut and paste: bbc.co.uk/news/business-16552623
Man, dark times ahead...
Attached is EUR/USD 1-Hour. We labeled the key pivot points that the market respected during Jan 12-13th.
We plot fibs based on
High = Jan 10th 13:00 1.28172 Low = Jan 11th 16:00 1.26606
Switch to the 4-Hour for clearer view of swings for this plot.
As price rebounded off the Jan 11th Low, which was a revisit of the Jan 8th pivot low, we can see the subsequent Jan 12th 02:00 pivot at level of the Jan 11th pivot low 1.27273.
Price moved back up during the Jan 12th 08:00 period. The break candle was the 09:00, which broke the 50% fib level and pivot area from Jan 11th. A thick white horizontal line marks this level.
We wrote that a day trader with a typical small stop-loss should stay on the sidelines during high-impact economic data release.
As mentioned, this occurred during 12:00-13:30 period, and resulted in the whipsaw candles.
Those with larger a stop-loss can place it at a minimum distance of 1.26976 + cushion. That is the 23.6% fib and location of last pivot low prior to breakout. Scale number of lots to keep risk the same.
Otherwise, the trade would be very quick and exit effect ahead of 12:00.
We labeled the Dec 29th low of 1.28570, which was a recent significant pivot. This corresponded with the fib plot's 127.2% fib level.
Markets usually bounce at significant pivot areas, and at its simplest, is the essence of S&R. This was the first revist coming from the opposite direction.
The other bounce area was the High, which was where our example targeted for a quick micro-retrace.
Price reached the 127.2 extension and probed to the 138.2 during the Jan 13th 06:00 hour.
Then came the panic selling that resulted from the downgrade warnings, which thus far has turned out to be true for France.
Price settled in at the Low of our fib plot after probing near the 127.2 fib of the downside. That action was detailed on yesterday's post.
Here's a Gold daily chart, which is GMT+2. The AstroIndciator4 (A4) is left on default Moon which is the number 1 planet. The islatitude is set to true.
The indicators MurreyMath1.0 and RSI (4-Period) are also used. The numerical values of the A4 can be read on the the side data window.
We list the A4 peaks and valleys, which denote probably turning points.
As mentioned before, we can filter signals by requiring the candle just before signal, or the signal candle, to be OB/OS on a 80/20 level of the RSI(4). These signals are listed as "qualified".
When we have to wait for the signal candle to close O/B or O/S, then the entry will be at the open of the next candle.
Reasonable maximum stop-loss can be half the distance between MML levels where applicable, or just beyond a MML.
A4 Signal Dates & Max Movement
Oct 24, 2011 BUY (non-qualified) +$136
Nov 8th SELL (qualified - day after signal) +$132
Nov 22nd BUY (qualified - day after signal) +$85
Dec 2nd SELL (non-qualified) +$184
Dec 16th BUY (qualified) +$71
Dec 30th BUY (qualified) +$117
Jan 13th SELL (qualified) Pending
The AstroIndicator4 can be found in the Gann Is The Man thread of the Indicator section, Post #87.
https://www.mql5.com/en/forum/198881