A-B-C-D Trade - page 134
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About an hour ago, Japan raised the Danger Level to Level 5 on a scale of 1-7.
BBC News - Japan earthquake: Fukushima nuclear alert level raised
USOIL. Plotting from low to high, it is sitting on 23.6% retrace fib of 102. It is also area of mar 14th high.
EUR/USD just hit regular extension 161.8 of 1.4135. Using the 1-hour chart will be better viewing to locate swings.
Libya has claimed to have enacted a cease fire. There are parties that refute that has or had happened in the hours after Libya's declaration. Here is one article:
Opposition: Violence rages despite Libyan claim of cease-fire - CNN.com
In the U.S., President Obama has just addressed the Libya situation. Everyone is basically saying they would like to see proof of the cease fire.
***
Meanwhile, Japan has released more updates that include:
Reactors 1 and 2 will have power by Saturday, and #3 and 4 by Sunday. The question would be how fragile the internal mechanism is, such as pumps, as put forth by CNBC.
The government has admitted that the disaster has overwhelmed them. This is understandable since there were 3 different dimensions to deal with.
Our one big question regarding the back-up deisel power to the reactors is: why insertion of fuel cells wasn't the "PLAN C"?
March 19th will bring high tides due to planetary alignment with the moon. Some call this particular one a "Super Moon", as it will be the closest to earth. Concerns are with possibility of flooding that will make things worse.
Four truths and three falsehoods about the March 19 supermoon | Water | EarthSky
***
USOIL had broken out to the downside below the 90-degree level and bounced up off of the 180-degree support level, per last post. It then reversed dramatically to the downside, due to the news on Libya, as seen around 12:30 (see your 30-min chart with SQ_9).
It had touched the 270-degree, pivoted up to the 180-degree, and reverted to downside, bottoming out at the 50% retrace fib of 100.13.
The bounce up is now at the newly displayed 90-degree level of 101.13.
Using both the SQ_9 and retrace fibs illuminated the price action vis-a-vis S&R.
***
EUR has risen and USD down across the board, with the EUR/USD pair making a 200% extension. A wider plot of low = Mar 11th 1.3751 and high = Mar 15th 1.4012 resulted in regular 161.8 = 1.4174 (hit 16:00).
USD/JPY with a cautious pullback to 80.75 during U.S.
***
Now, news of Yemen "State of Emergency", with at least 40 protester killed. The government is denying involvement. Details are obviously unclear with much of the Middle East and North Africa turmoil. It remains to be seen if 3rd parties are involved with their own agenda(s).
Attached are 2 EUR/USD charts. The first is the weekly, where we need to identify divergence. The second chart is the daily trigger, utilizing the EFT. There were 3 BAJA signals that were clearly registered.
1) May 30th, 2010 bullish divergence candle
June 9th BUY entry at 1.1969
Bottom = 1.1875
Made 161.8 extension
The EFT on weekly never fell below the zero line during uptrend
2) Oct 31st, 2010 bearish divergence candle
Nov 8th SELL entry at 1.4074
Top = 1.4281
Pullback*
Also 161.8 extension downward
3) Jan 2nd bullish divergence candle
Jan 13th BUY entry at 1.3125
Bottom = 1.2872
Bounce off retrace fib level, ready to make first revisit of Oct 31st high, where bounce will take place prior to any advancement.
Implement HAS candles on weekly chart.
*On retrace from Oct 31st high, we can see the candle bodies respect support at the 50% retrace fib (not shown on chart).
If there is an extension above the Oct 31st high, look for bearish divergence.
Check other pairs.
Last week was one of the most eventful, with human suffering and continued anxieties.
Oil and gold opened this week with gaps up, and are trading at $104 and $1429 respectively.
The EUR/USD long-term chart’s trend line held for 4 days before breach to the upside. We saw G7 coordinated intervention on USD/JPY, the first time since 2000. That also affected EUR/JPY. thus dragging EUR/USD up dramatically. With anticipated ECB rate hike and EU Summit March 22-23rd, speculating traders are pushing the EURO up.
We need to move the location of the 2nd peak on that trend line. The 2 peaks are now:
July 15th, 2008 1.6038
Dec 3rd, 2009 1.5140
Plot ABCs pointing up and look out for divergence on 30-min charts and greater.
Japan is closed due to a bank holiday.
Attached is the USD/CHF daily chart. We labeled the high and low, with a 61.8% pullback: Dec 1st/Dec 31st/Jan 11th.
A revisit to the 61.8 occurred on Feb 11th. That candle was also a BAJA bearish divergence. Using a 4-hour trigger, entry effected on Feb 13th at price of .9723.
The thrust down started consolidation on Feb 25th, and went on to make an extension to the 161.8 fib of .8888 (.8891 actual).
We applied the indicator Heiken Ashi MA T3 new_alerts, which positions the HAS candles to act as S&R if we choose to use that aspect.
The BAJA also caught:
The Dec 1st, 2010 High and bearish divergence, with SELL entry price of 1.000
The Feb 1st pivot and bullish divergence, with entry price of .9419.
Edit: Here's a link to a quake site. Can set map to minimum magnitude and use sticky dots. Illustrates not only how devastating the 9.0 was, but also the numerous aftershocks.
Japan Quake Map
Today, Bloomberg detailed past non-disclosures and outright falsification of records by Tepco, the operator of the nuclear plants.
Meanwhile, radiation has been detected 20 miles from site, which exceeds the 18-mile evacuation radius imposed by the Japanese government. The U.S. used a 50-mile radius for their citizens.
Following up our Mar 17th observation on the GER30, which is a CFD that mimics the German DAX 30:
The attached 1-hour chart has a BAJA bullish divergence candle at Mar 16th 18:00. Triggering off the 15-min EFT at 19:00 had BUY entry price of 6.480.
Like the other indices, recovery came. Right now is an excellent time to end a swing trade scenario with portion that remained in the market, with price of 6,811 nearing our plot high 6,845 (100% retrace).
During the route back up, we can see the 1-hour candles respect the 61.8 and 78.6 fibs. In both instances, the bounce went back down to the 50% fib.
EUR/USD broke Asian low of 1.4158, with next support at 1.4142.
Caution on Euro as ECB's Trichet once again making hawkish statements signaling interest rate increase (long Euro), perhaps as soon as April meeting.