A-B-C-D Trade - page 200
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The markets did not like the content of the Merkel-Sarkosy press conference, where it was revealed that a financial transaction tax may be implemented.
This was received, as opposed to getting a miracle plan to solve the debt crisis.
EUR/CHF 1-hour chart saw formation of 16:00 near-colorless candle, followed by a drop of 50 pips back down to the 161.8 (see last chart posted).
Similarly, EUR/USD dropped to the 50% fib, after touching the Mars 90-degree.
AUD/USD at resistance level of 1.0486
AUD/USD 486 breached. S/L above 511.
Fibo fan: Low = Aug 15th 10:00 1.03862 High = Aug 16th 16:00 1.05053
APF:
Handle = Aug 15th 21:30 High 1.05118
Upper corner = Aug 16th 16:00 High 1.05053
Lower corner = Aug 16th 08:00 Low 1.04054
Fib channel lined up with APF median line and upper fork line produces
61.8 expansion that just caught 05:00 high 1.04960.
Fibo fan's 38.2 also there.
If you follow candlestick patterns, AUD/USD 1-hour may close the 05:00 as a gravestone doji.
Split-screen 4-way. Lower charts are AUD/USD.
Lower left has fibo fan and fib channel. We can see the hit back down to the fib channel.
lower right has session colors, fibo fan pointing down and tight retrace plot (red). Pair hit the 78.6.
Upper left is EUR/USD which generally trades in same direction. Pair just made the 127.2 extension to downside at Euro open.
Upper right is USOIL, which can influence commodity currencies such as the auzzie.
Here is the full sized 30-min chart, with fib channel in thick white color.
The 09:30 candle hit the channel's 161.8 expansion. Vertical extension from 07:00 pivot is 161.8 to same area.
Dotted white 200% fib (hit 10:30) derived from plot using:
Low = 1.03294 High = 1.04406
EUR/USD and USOIL made 161.8 extensions to upside. All 3 instruments made strong reversals to the upside during European session.
XAU_USD popped up to 78.6% retrace fib of 1795 area before some profit taking.
And here is updated PSQ9 chart for EUR/USD. The 2 fib plots:
White fibs =after bouncing off the White High and yellow 78.6, pair hit the white 161.8, and just touched previous high (yellow) of 1.44760 established Aug 15th 14:00.
Red Mars 90-degree right there as well, as testing of resistance is taking place.
AUD/USD pulled backed during U.S. session. We attach the same 30-min chart with fib channels.
A BAJA bearish divergence formed at the top, right at the blue 161.8 and 261.8 fib channel.
1st peak = Aug 17th 11:30 RSI(4) of 90
2nd peak = AUG 17TH 13:30 RSI(4) of 80
The 14:00 candle was a doji. ALmost a clean "Dragonfly Doji.
14:00 open price = 1.05930 entry for those that recognized resistance.
Price declined to next channel down (200%). That is 38.2% (1.05411) retrace from 07:00 pivot low of 1.04470. Exit this level = +52 gross pips.
This CFD tends to mimic the Dow Jones 30 Futures. We have PSQ9 on this 30-min chart.
Low = Aug 17th 07:00 11,334
High = Aug 17th 11:00 11,457
Price broke High during U.S. open 13:30 period and just about hit the 161.8 extension level. Top price was 11,529,
14:30 saw reversal back down to the 61.8 fib of 11,381 during 16:00 candle period (now).
USD/CHF 1-Hour with PSQ9 and lime green bracketing:
Sunday (Aug 14th) High = .79142 & Sunday Low = .78173
A = Aug 15th 06:00 high .79960 *
B = Aug 15th 10:00 low .78626
C = Aug 15th 12:00 high .79249
* Pair made a 138.2 extension to .79960 based on plot:
Low = Aug 12th 16:00 .76998 and High = Aug 14th .79142 (Sunday High)
The FE 100 price of .77870 was hit by the Aug 15th 15:00 candle. The Friday high was .77846 (white X) prior to the gap up the following Sunday.
From the beginning of this thread, we spoke about being aware of where we are in the price movement when assessing a potential breakout trade.
If we subscribe to the FE 100 being the highest probability, we would have known to keep that trade for a short duration and target the FE 100 if we can keep the R/R palatable, or reject it entirely.
This particular pair was choppy viz-a-viz the Sunday breakout. Understanding fib extensions/S&R will reduce losses attributed to false breakouts, and/or allow targeting small profit targets with more confidence.
As always, use money management.