A-B-C-D Trade - page 265
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Split-screen
15-min session colors with fibs plot based on Asian High/Low
- Price made 138.2 extension to the downside until 10:00 EU CPI
- Price pivoted at the 138.2 to the upside at 13:30 data
- Declined fueled further by 15:00 positive U.S. Philadelphia Fed data
1-hour PSQ9 with fibs based on Dec 13th High/Low
- 23.6% pullback and 127.2 extension to downside on Dec 14th
- Trade opportunities include quick bounce off Low on Dec 14th 17:00 period
- Mars 0-degree resistance Dec 15th
4-hour is continuance of our SDC and fib channel plot.
- Arrows point to trade opportunities off S&R.
- Dec 13th 20:00 support at FC 131.4
- Dec 14th 04:00 resistance at the SDC lower channel
- Dec 14th 12:00 support at FC 161.8
- Dec 15th 08:00 resistance at SDC lower channel
We mentioned the Swiss interest rate decision at 08:15, and all of the speculation and verbiage that went along with that. Attached is 1-hour session colors.
Fib plot is yesterday's Low/High. Price extended to the upside 127.2 during Asian. That 2nd peak solidified BAJA bearish divergence.
The 6/8th MML also at top. DeMark TD Sequential indicator registered a "9" after close of 23:00 candle, and at top.
Overall, this pair also succumbed to fear with the Euro. Heavy shorts include fundamental traders not convinced Swiss National Bank will raise the Euro peg to 1.25, from 1.20.
We can see price meet the 161.8 to downside during first hour of the European session, and declining further to the 200% during 15:00. Cross-pair correlation probably with EUR/USD and Phil. Fed data at 15:00.
Split-screen with AUD/USD on bottom, and monitor cross-pair correlation of EUR/USD on top.
Chart on left is a 15-min session colors has trend line and break after Australia closed. Retrace fib plot uses .99103 as low.
Chart in middle uses SQ9(Price with 05:00 top .99860 as start price. Gray line is 1st level 22.5-degree, and equal to last pivot low at 02:30.
Chart on right displays 1-hour with SDC plot Dec 15th 13:00 and Dec 16th 03:00. The Gann_SQ9 is automatic and has same levels as manually plotted SQ9 in middle chart.
****
Earlier today, credit agency Fitch downgraded 8 major banks including B of A and Goldman Sachs.
China reported intervened, and India definitely did so in attempt to strengthen Rupee, which has fallen dramatically.
AUD/USD last posted 22.5-degree level was as far as pair declined off bounce from previous highs. Together with Asian intervention, a region that the aussie is sensitive in, pair dragged up by EUR/USD data.
EUR/USD broke out of Asian High during 12:15, and made a 200% extension, ahead of U.S. CPI at 13:30.
Chart on left is the same 1-hour EUR/USD SDC plot displayed on last split-screen, using Dec 14th 15:00 and 13:00. We swapped out the MML for the Gann_SQ9.
The upper channel caught the 12:00 candle peak, and the lower channel intersected the 45-degree for support, at that point in time.
Chart on right is 30-min AUD/USD, with SDC overlaid on Gann_SQ9. The first plot point for the SDC is Dec 15th 13:00. We moved the 2nd plot point from today's 03:00 to new peak 07:00.
This resulted in upper channel providing resistance twice at both peaks of BAJA bearish divergence on 07:00/12:00.
Price now breaking out of both pair's SDC plots.
EUR/USD would need to hurdle day's low 1.3007 and round number 1.300.
Our 4-hour SDC & FC plot has its lower SDC channel here at 1.3009.
It's Friday, and therefore risky toward possibly getting stuck in a trade that might get behind, without enough time to exit for profit or break-even.
Have a plan and understand the risk.
Let's review AUD/USD, using a split-screen and the aforementioned Standard Deviation Channel plot (SDC).
Chart on the left is a 15-min. We added intra-day fibs Low = 12:15 .99802 and High = 12:45 1.00269.
Chart on the right has PSQ9, MurreyMath1.0, and fibs using .99102/1.00269. Fib fan low is Dec 15th 05:30 .98603.
This particular example illustrates waiting until after U.S. CPI is released at 13:30. Entry effected at break of the mid-channel during the 14:00 period. Let's call the entry SELL fill at .9988.
The take-profit (TP) target can be the 15-min plot's 138.2 extension to the downside, or the lower SDC channel. We labeled the TP at the SDC lower channel. Minus spread = .9959.
The S/L can be just above the mid-channel, just above the 50% fib of 1.0000 on the 15-min chart plot. After cushion, let's call the S/L = 1.0004.
Reward = 29 pips Risk = 16 pips
Ratio = 1.8:1
Price pivoted just above the lower channel during the 14:45 period. 15-min candle closed at the 138.2% extension. The 30-min chart had a long-legged doji at the conclusion of the 14:30 candle period.
Price bounced back up to the mid-channel, prior to making a final dip to .9935 during 17:30. This pivot was at the Mars 270-degree, same as the 78.6% retrace on the 30-min chart. Fibo fan 61.8% ray (yellow) right there.
SQ9(Price) 22.5 Factor 56 indicator applied to 4-hour chart, with start price 1.32464, direction is down. We mentioned this plot before.
SDC plot = Nov 25th 08:00 and Dec 2nd 12:00
Fin channel aligned to upper and lower SDC channel lines.
From new week 12-11, plot horizontal fib. High = 12-11 22:00 1.33751 and Low = 12-12 12:00 1.32102
After Dec 13th pivot, price made a 200% extension to SQ9 225-degree level. on Dec 14th.
After a quick short on EUR/USD, we saw price plunge (pro-USD) after it was announced that North Korean's Kim passed away. We believe this was around 03:00 GMT.
It looks like most or all major pairs have recovered to their per-announcement levels now.
Attached is a 30-min chart with PSQ9. FC aligned to new week's Moon 45 and Moon 0-degree.
SDC plot is Dec 16th 13:00 and Dec 19th 03:30. We can see compliance with price in channels last week.
Currently, price bumping up against FC 100, same as Moon 315-degree. This was support, and now acting as resistance.
Mars 0-degree also significant S&R.
Continuance of our chart with PSQ9 and SDC plot.
We added fib channel alignment to SDC's upper and lower channel, then pulled down, aligning FC's upper plot line to the SDC's mid-channel.
Result is the FC 61.8 catching the pivot and support during 03:00 - 04:30.
Horizontal fib plot (gray) is 1.00269/.99351. This produced 138.2 extension at pivot low.