[Archive!] FOREX - Trends, Forecasts and Consequences (Episode 6: August 2011) - page 87
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*03.50 Moscow time zone. - Japan: June, current account balance (pre-term: +Y590.7bn, -51.7% y/y)
*03.50 MSK - Japan: July, bank lending (prior period: -0.6% y/y)
*03.50 Moscow time - Japan: July, M2 money supply (prior period: +2.9% y/y)
*09.00 Moscow time. - Japan: July, economic observer index (current estimate/prospects) (prior period: 49.6/49)
*09.45 Moscow time. - Switzerland: July, bp rate (Forecast: 3.0% Wed; Previous Period: 3.0% Wed)
*10.30 MSc. - France: July business sentiment survey (Bank of France) (prior period: 99)
12.30 Moscow time zone. - E-17: August, Sentix investor confidence (forecast: 4.1; prior period: 5.3)
*14.00 Moscow time. - E-17: June, OECD Leading Indicators Index (prior period: 102.5)
18.00 Moscow time. - USA: July, Employment Trends Index (prior period: 100.0)
?
The world is changing. How much the world changes. The same forest, the same air, and the same water, also the sky - blue again. And it's not the same rating anymore. The states have had a triple A since 1941, it was a couple or three generations of traders who thought AAA was an unshakable monolith. A stronghold. The rock. Armour. And so, we were lucky enough to find rusty holes in the armour. Who hit it, the armor? It's as rotten on the inside as Byzantium. I have long and persistently applied the comparison to Byzantium, for seven years now. But every day I never cease to be amazed. And every day I take risks from tomorrow's assessments. For example, todayS&P cut America's rating. And the rouble fell the day before and the dollar is worth 28.34 roubles today, Saturday. The question is - will the dollar fall back, or will it go up in spite of the rating dogs? That is, do I run to the bank with my quid, and dump them for roubles today - tomorrow, or sit still, and smile and drink tea? Basically, it's a position in the market. Wow, that was a good one - on Thursday the fund fell painfully, and squandered the entire year's supply of optimism - the indices in America fell below the values of 11, i.e. the whole pre-August game has gone to waste. Oil is down, even gold has toppled from new peaks. Beautiful, the dollar is up 55 kopecks for the day. And then that stupidS&P comes out and spoils the whole game for me. That uncut bastard. All people like people, Moody's and Fitch on the second confirmed America's triple A ratings. No, they need more than anyone else, vigilant as they are. The dollar has risen as expected. And August is a factor in a strong market change. Also went up. Question = will there be a continuation? Should we hold the quid or dump it? The answer is to hold. I think in the medium term this cut is factored into the prices of not only the dollar, but all assets. Long term is accounted for by the price. Short term in the NDP there will be a gap against the dollar - most likely. For example, the eu will gap above the blue flag, but not above 4526. And then it will deflate. And it will be left with a false break above. And the optimists will be beaten. The fund has technically turned bearish on Thursday. More precisely, the fund has been falling since May, and it didn't become so in one day. Just minus 512 points on the Dow Jones means full bearish control. They say there was panic, again there were pictures of traders, propped up or with their arms around their heads. Fly away, swan geese.
European Central Bank (ECB) governor Jean-Claude Trichet expects the governing council of the regulator to decide on the purchase of Italian government bonds in order to prevent a fiscal and debt crisis in the euro zone on the evening of 7 August 2011. This is reported by Reuters, citing informed sources.
.... On July 15 this year the Italian parliament approved a package of austerity measures amounting to 48 billion euros. This decision was made amid growing concerns about the debt crisis in the euro zone.Sources at the ECB said that if the regulator approves the purchase of Italian securities, the purchase of bonds will begin with the opening of markets August 8, 2011. According to them, the ECB is also examining the possibility of saturating the financial sector with liquidity in order to prevent stagnation in the global foreign exchange market.
The postponement of the Governing Council meeting to tonight was dictated by the desire to take a break and wait for comments from the US administration regarding the downgrade of the country's credit rating. The ECB expects that before the vote the White House will announce plans to deal with the panic that has started in the stock markets.
Recall, August 4, 2011. The ECB confirmed the activity of the program of redemption of government bonds of peripheral eurozone countries. Earlier, a number of analysts, having analyzed the recent comments of the ECB managers, suggested that the program has actually been wound up.
will start at the opening of the markets on August 8, 2011.
Since there will be no Euro liquidity surge in the markets on the 7th, the EuR has reasons to go higher... as well as the 8th to start correcting...
It could take 9 to 18 years for the US to recover its top credit rating. This is the assessment of the US financial outlook given by the managing director of international rating agency Standard & Poor's (S&P) John Chambers, ABC News reports.
He also pointed to the possibility of a further downgrade of the US rating in the next two years. "A further rating downgrade could follow if the U.S. financial situation continues to deteriorate or political disagreements worsen," Chambers said.
"The authorities must first stabilise their debt service and overcome the coming economic downturn, and then demonstrate more clearly their determination to reach a compromise on financial problems," Chambers said.
The probability of further downgrade in the next two years, according to the head of S & P, is 1:3.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury believes that S&P made a $2 trillion mistake in its calculations. According to the ministry officials, the mistake lies in the calculation of the debt rating relative to the gross domestic product, as well as in the misunderstanding of key congressional data.
Global stock markets will continue to fall. This is the prediction made by former US Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan. He added that there is a high probability that "markets will soon hit bottom", the Associated Press reported.
At the same time, Greenspan assured that U.S. Treasury bonds remain a safe investment vehicle, and the decision of rating agency S&P will not affect their reliability. He said the experts' decision hurt the U.S.'s "self-esteem," while there is no chance of default.
Greenspan considers the situation in Italy a real threat, which, in his opinion, risks significantly destabilizing the European financial system.
Israeli stock market capitalization decreased by 7% in today's trading, which was a reaction to downgrade of US long-term credit rating by analysts of international rating agency Standard & Poor's (S&P).
Israel's TA-25 blue-chip index fell 6.99% to 1,074.27 points in the session. The TA-100 broad market index retreated 7.2%.
Earlier today, leading Middle Eastern stock indices also declined; the region's markets are the first to react to overseas news, as the S&P decision was announced when the world's stock exchanges were closed for the weekend.
At the end of trading, Qatar stock index DSM 20 retreated 2.5%, Abu Dhabi indicator ADI showed a three-month low, declining by 2.5%, Dubai Financial Market General Index sank 3.68%. The day before, on August 6, 2011, Saudi Arabia's stock market capitalization - the only one open on Saturday - had fallen 5.5%European Central Bank (ECB) governor Jean-Claude Trichet expects the governing council of the regulator to decide on the purchase of Italian government bonds in order to prevent a fiscal and debt crisis in the euro zone on the evening of 7 August 2011. This is reported by Reuters, citing informed sources.
.... On July 15 this year, the Italian parliament approved a package of austerity measures amounting to 48 billion euros. Such decision was made amid growing concerns about the debt crisis in the euro zone.Sources at the ECB said that if the regulator approves the purchase of Italian securities, the purchase of bonds will begin with the opening of markets August 8, 2011. According to them, the ECB is also examining the possibility of saturating the financial sector with liquidity in order to prevent stagnation in the global foreign exchange market.
The postponement of the Governing Council meeting to tonight was dictated by the desire to take a break and wait for comments from the US administration regarding the downgrade of the country's credit rating. The ECB expects that before the vote the White House will announce plans to deal with the panic that has started in the stock markets.
Recall, August 4, 2011. The ECB confirmed the activity of the program of redemption of government bonds of peripheral eurozone countries. Earlier, a number of analysts, having analyzed the recent comments of the ECB governors, suggested that the program has actually been curtailed.
I was born early :)
This is the conclusion reached by experts from the UK's Economics and Business Research Centre.
The experts say Italy will be able to avoid default, having weighed all financial and economic indicators, only if there is a significant jump in the growth of the gross domestic product.
Spain, meanwhile, has received a more positive outlook. The state stands a good chance of not defaulting, as the amount of foreign debts is much lower.
The Italian economy, despite approval of a series of tight budgets and plans to rid itself of budget deficits by 2014, needs even more stimulus to boost growth.