The London Open - page 147
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USDJPY – Bought off support with many taking 50% out at top of triangle. Waiting for break of 70 level
EURUSD – Many were short from 1.3060 level early this morning with stop at 75. A solid way to start the day with 40 pips plus
GBPJPY – Descending triangle with support at 137.85. Had to wait for break at 85 before shorting. Many banking 50% after 40 pips profit and holding balance
CABLE – Resistance at 1.4075 and support at 1.4025. Remember the 4hr 20ma was at 1.4019. Many went short at 18 or around there for a great 50 pip trade
Overall a fantastic morning and I am very impressed with you all.
See you tomorrow for Thursdays London Open.
Dan
Hi
Thats why we bank 50%...GBPJPY has been a true winner. Banked part again at 136.75.
Dan
The New York Open Notes - Wednesday 18th March
Good afternoon all
It’s been a great day so far with GBP falling through key support levels.
CABLE
• GBP is very weak today after weak figures this am.
• I won’t be standing in its way and will probably have to sit out of CABLE this afternoon.
• The only way you to trade GBP would be with the short term charts with very tight stops.
• Hard to sell after falling 300 pips, hard to buy with such a weak GBP.
• Verdict be very careful and stay out unless an obvious trade appears.
EURUSD
• 1.3070 is still major resistance and has been tested twice today.
• The EUR is remaining strong with EURJPY holding firm above the DP.
• Difficult one to call with heavy resistance above. Be patient and wait for break or keep selling with tight stop above the 75 level.
EURGBP
• Broken resistance from this morning and is now overbought on the 60min chart.
• Yes could look for a pullback here with stop above the figure.
• It’s a tight play targeting the 60 level.
• Remember its against the trend so keep the stop rolling.
Verdict
EUR remains strong and play off the 1.3070 level.
CABLE remains weak but only option is a pullback so high risk
EURGBP remains strong but only option is a pullback so high risk
Charts not setup well for safe trades
Another pretty active session in my lovely world with locals continuingto have almost insatiable appetite for Russian Corporates. On the onehand I am asking myself when is this demand going to disappear, when dothey run out of ammo? On the other hand it kind of makes sense. TheKremlin has effectively said it will bail out all its quasis and all thematerially important private companies in Russia. Well while theRussians still have a decent amount of firepower (in terms of dollarreserves) we are effectively looking at one giant convergence trade tothe sovereign which will be the case until Russia run out of money andstop supporting their companies.I still haven't got a clue about the short term direction of marketshowever indicators like local currency weakness, govy bid and commodityand stock weakness is pointing towards a little wobble for generalmarkets. Whether this is just some profit taking or something moresinister is anyone's guess. More of the same tomorrow.
Mr P......
Lo Dan
I like your Mr P posts, especially the way you link the words together to make it a little brain teaser exercise to see if we're paying attention.
Hark fair maiden, when dothey run out of ammo? - that's Shakespeare isn't it?
Marketshowever was read as market showers first time around. Makes it even more interesting.
Tee ra a bit.
Brain box RS
Morning all
We made a decision as a group today and not trade after last nights aggressive moves.
The only potential setup we liked was CABLE (some took it) but many didn’t
I am happy with my decision to have stayed out of the market this am and will be looking for better setups this afternoon.
As you all know its about discipline and once you make a decision be happy with it.
See you later.
The USD is in big trouble...
Well traded team. Some good calls and some solid pips in the pip tin.
See u all tom.
D
New York Open Notes - Thursday 19th March
Good afternoon all……………
Unemployment claims out in 15mins so be careful but seems to be gearing up for weak dollar already.
Most definitely looking like a change in sentiment is coming. Now USDJPY is trading in the opposite direction to EURUSD and GBPUSD to maybe crosses are to be left alone and perhaps we need to stick with $ related pairs until this trend changes
Can’t touch GBPJPY or EURJPY whilst charts are set as they are and leading pairs are behaving like so.
Don't know if it was because I was busy yesterday or I am getting old.Either way it was very silly of me to dismiss the FOMC as a non event.As I see it the Fed fired one of its most powerful weapons in itsArsenal. You can't blame the Fed as they have got to try everything intheir power to avoid a deflationary spiral however if this exocetmissile, misses its target what happens next? One thing is for sure, weare not going to know for a long time, data will continue to be awfuland companies will get downgraded, job losses will continue, only in3-6 months time will we know if this weapon actually works. I stillhave my doubts, however this is the worst crisis since 1929 and the goodnews is that we have a scholar of the great depression as chairman ofthe most powerful central bank in the world so if anyone can get us outof this mess he is best equipped to do so. A word about currencies, Ihave been a well known bear on the Euro quite simply because the onefits all sizes does not work however my view on it currency changed afew weeks ago. The British, the US, the Canadians can print money (viaQuantitative easing), for the Euro nations it would be logisticalnightmare and with Trichet in charge the chances are slimmer than asupermodel anyway. What this does mean for the Euro countries is thatby default the Euro will continue to rally vs the dollar, pound etcinflicting more pain on the countries within the Euro and prolonging therecession. I still say the US were first in this mess and will be firstout of it, the Euro countries however will be paying the price for thisridiculous union for a lot longer.As for EM the rally obviously continued in spectacular style. To give you an idea of the rally and the liquidity, TNK and Tneft 18s are up acombined 12 points these past 24 hours and have traded about 1.5miobonds total in the street. The market is a shadow of its former selfand customers who think they can buy clips of 5 or 10mio will be leftfrustrated and disappointed. Looking at the oil price and generalmarket feel, it looks like this rally is set to continue. If Bernankeis right and this final bullet hits the target, EM specifically Russianand Kazakhstan will benefit unlike my lovely country that is screwedeither way. Good night more madness tomorrow!
Mr P.......
The London Open Notes - Friday 20th March
Today we concentrated on two solid breakouts in CABLE and EURUSD.
Many of you in the room today made between 80 and 100 pips. That is great trading and a great end to the week.
As mentioned it was worth looking at the 4hr chart as you could have shorted these two charts at yesterdays high. I am now short on both with tight 25 pip stops and seeing if Friday brings the retracements these markets need.
Really enjoying teaching you all and I feel I am slowly improving as a teacher. I am going to zone in on breakouts from Monday as most of you can trade these and make decent pips from them. I will talk you through the rolling stops so you feel confident with the risk.
See you all on Monday and happy piping!!!
Take care all
Dan