The London Open - page 154
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Good morning all
Its midnight and annoyingly i am thinking of GBP. So far i am happy in how i have read GBP (even with all the negative fundamentals) but i am starting to think how further can it go???
USD has weaknened a little across the board and thats kept GBP and EUR higher. The weakness of the JPY has also kep USDJPY and GBPJPY bid.
So GBPJPY has moved 1000 pips since the cross but it needs to keep momentum or GBP will fall right back down again. This week is key with it being retracement week and it needs to hold support soon.
CABLEs key support line is in 1.4400/1.4500 region and feel this could be tested again. If it rallies from here at 1.4700 the market will be too long of GBP and the potential of a double top at 1.5000 will be on and could see more sellers come back into the market. Either way i am having my doubts so happy to have banked some good pips over the last few days. I will definitely buy in the BUY ZONE and get you guys in as well but i need to be patient until we enter the ZONE.
The three trades have been keeping me up late into the nights due to Asia's volatility, which is annoying...
However still like EURGBP lower..Some of you guys are still short which is great and i still see my target at 0.8500 to be hit. This one i am happy with for now and havent reduced this in a big way. Hopefully i am right on this one....
I might regret closing the majority of my long GBP positions but i am uneasy at the moment and feel a further pullback could be on. The charts are in interesting setups for tomorrow and could argue it both ways. Either way at least i can rest a little...
Retracement weeks always ask more questions and lets see what the London Open brings to us! I will not be trading if the probability is not in our favour.
Sleep well for the remaining few hours!
D
London Open Notes - Wednesday 8th April
Good morning team
Been up all night thinking about GBP all night!! Closed the final part of my CABLE and GBPJPY positions and only holding EURGBP as longer term play now. Target remains the same at 0.8500… When we hit support in GBP again I will look to get back in for a tight bounce.
CABLE
• Its retracement week… Support around the 1.4400 level and this should be tested.
• The position of GBPUSD isn’t great this am and stuck in no mans land.
• Looks weak below the 4hr 20ma and 60min 20ma but WP is the problem.
• Probability isn’t swinging our way here so we must be very careful on any trade on this currency.
• Always best to sell at highs and buy off lows. When you are in the middle zone probability of a successful trade is thin.
• Watching closely…
EURUSD
• I like EUR lower against GBP and the USD.
• MP will offer support but any pullback to the 4hr 20ma and we should look for short plays after the break of the MP.
EURGBP
• EURGBP is moving aggressively lower after breaking support yesterday at 0.9030.
• No entry level at the moment on short term book.
• Need to be patient and wait for pullbacks to the 60min 20ma.
JPYs
The 3 look weak on the retracements.
I do not like trading currencies around BIG FIGURES like 100.00 in USDJPY. The market becomes lost so be careful around here.
GBPJPY looks very interesting sitting below the 4hr 20ma and looks best for a short. We need to watch USDJPY and CABLE for assistance.
Verdict
Not easy out there with these setups. Retracements weeks are always tougher to trade.
Looking for further weakness in GBP today against JPY and USD
Dan
Surely to goodness you can think of something else at night rather than GBP!
Take up knitting, do the ironing, worm the dog... don't be such a saddo!
Cheeky RS!
Had a few cheeky trades as i was leaving the office and came home to find myself up a few cheeky pips. Remember what i was talking about this am in the live room? Patience paid off and waited for the 60min trigger and looked at the 5min for an entry on a break of the 60min 20ma and ended up with some little piparoonies in GBPJPY, USDJPY & EURJPY. I havent traded CABLE due to the WP but glad with the JPY trades overall. Not going to hold these overnight due to the volatility on Asia...
I am going to be asking all of you tomorrow morning who traded these moves, as we talked about these 123s extensively? I was actually on the phone to one of you, talking you through the JPY trades at the time and that they would kick off when USDJPY breaks 99.95. I am hoping that a high % of you took these...
See u tom...
D
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London Open Notes - Thursday 9th April
Good morning
Last day of the week with Easter weekend ahead… Watch out for Anders in his 6ft bunny outfit!!!
Its interest rate day today in the UK and rates are expected to remain the same at 0.5%.
As explained from yesterdays session I was looking for the JPYs to have a small pullback so went short for a few pips in USDJPY, GBPJPY & EURJPY. I didn’t touch CABLE as WP held firm and reason why I didn’t hold the positions overnight.
Only position open at moment is EURGBP (short) on longer term book.
There are many triangles formed today so let’s wait for the breaks.
CABLE
• WP has held firm and this will give the market confidence today.
• Looks supported off this DP and technically could have a tight long play with stop behind DP. Would like to see a break of the triangle.
• Range has been very small over the last 48 hours so I need to see evidence that the other GBP currencies like GBPJPY want to push higher as well.
EURUSD
• Boxed between the DP and 4hr 20ma.
• Look for break of these levels as range is so small.
• The MP is key in EURUSD and if this is tested again we should look for the break of the MP.
EURGBP
• 0.9000 was always going to offer small support.
• Any break back above the 4hr 20ma at 0.9050 would signal a start of a retracement.
JPYs
• The JPYs are boxed in.
• If USDJPY can break up above the 4hr 20ma then the others will follow.
• Lets hold off until USDJPY shows the way.
Ok no trades for me...
Its been a quiet week but take a look at that CABLE chart. Its gone sideways!!!
Of course there are scalping opportunities but i am being patient and waiting for the next big drive.
Tuesday or Wednesday should see the start of this next move but the charts need to position themselves correctly.
Thanks for the emails...Many of you are happy that you havent traded and over the last 48 hours which is good to see. As Scorpion said earlier she isnt searching for silly trades.
Well done team and see you on Tuesday.
Enjoy.
D
Hi Dan
Thanks for another great week, charts have been tricky but still good fun in the room. Still waiting for the breakfast order to be filled though, I must say the delivery service is terrible. You would make a rubbish waiter.
(Psssst - it's RS these days, remember? The pesky Administrator nicked my name here so I had to change it. Mind you, I'm not proud, I answer to most things).
Poor old Dan, thinking of your choccy easter eggs or did the hairy chest throw you off your train of thought. Unless of course there is another Scorpion in the house, in which case it's definitely handbags at dawn.
(Sorry Mr Scorpion oh most fabulous Administrator of FXFisherman in the world).
Have a great Easter everyone.
Scorpion/RS yeah, whatever
PS My smiley avator is my on-line trading buddy making a special guest Easter appearance.
Hi all
Well i am awake again...Not dreaming about GBP but EUR this time. Doesnt help that my daughter is passed out on my side of the bed so there is no room for me!!! Daddy therefore gets shunted off!!! Oh well its a pleasure to watch her sleep...
I have one position on and thats EURGBP. I speak to a lot of good traders and they all tell me a different story. Some say EUR is dead and buried for many reasons, others saying EUR will remain very strong as they can't print money like the rest of us in the US and UK. I see both side's but it still doesnt answer my question.
I am remaining a short term bear in EUR and will hold my 1 remaining position in EURGBP for now. The Daily chart has broken the triangle and I will be looking for a further push lower and a 123 b4 adding to my position.
Cable needs to hold support around the 1.4300/1.4400 on the triangle. If this can hold for the start of next week and USD remains weak across the board then the 1.4950 level should be tested again. However my head is telling me to sell eveything to do with GBP but i am ignoring my feelings and only going to trade what the chart is telling me. A break of these 2 levels will be key for the next big drive. I dont care which way as i will make pips on any break but until we test one of these levels i will be staying out of the market in CABLE. CABLE has been lost all week and virtually impossible to trade and thats why i have left it alone...
EURUSD has broken the weekly 20ma and is now testing the MP. A break here and a 123 will signal a very bearish move on the EUR for the nex week or two. I see this back down at 1.2600/1.2700. I am ignoring the bulls on the EUR for now..1.3000 will be a key psychological level to break and the Daily 50ma at this level will offer small support. Lets play the small bounce off here and look for a short after it.
USDJPY is interesting...The daily chart shows a fake out on the Golden cross back in July 2008. Will the same happen again? There is a clear support on the daily chart from January and if this is broken expect this to fall back down to the low 90.00s again with GBPJPY and EURJPY following. I will be looking to buy off the support until this level is broken..
GBPJPY is waiting for either CABLE or USDJPY to make up its mind. It looks a little toppy at these levels and needs a small pullback to support...
I hope you are starting to understand the currency market. I have hardly traded this week, whereby last week was huge. You must respect this market and be patient with it. I dont care if i miss a move, especially when i am unsure of direction on the 60min chart.
If you wait for the longer term charts to correct themselves into position, you will soon understand why we have more volatile weeks than others. I said this week was going to be rubbish from monday. Its retracement week so we closed out of long plays in GBP (except EURGBP) and sat back and ate more coco pops so as to avoid trading. You know me i only trade when the markets tell me too and not when i am tempted in on small punts...
I am in this for the long haul and if i dont trade one week because the markets are rubbish then i wont trade. I feel next week will be better and we will use the 60min chart to our full advantage and look some good swing trades. Have patience guys and dont put too much pressure on yourselves trying to play every trend reversal on short term charts. I tried it and failed misserably!!!
I will set u all up on tuesday with the major resistance and support levels and lets wait for these levels to be hit so we can play off them.
At dinner last night i was speaking to a very good friend of mine (Mr P.....) about what makes a successful trader. One thing he said that came to mind was that (when he was a boy on the life floor) his boss at the time said "You make most of your money in only 5% of your time"... So what does that mean?? Quite simple the more patient you are the more pips u make. Yes us humans are notoriously bad at being patient (as we want everything now) but that really does confirm my own thoughts. If i look back at the guys i have taught the ones who have excelled are the ones who have learnt the skill of being patient.
Mr P....took a trade last week which he was confident with but he assures me that if he had been sitting at his desk and not on golf tour he would have closed out the position. He said his emotions would have got the better of him but his patience paid off. The end result is he made 6months cash in 4 days. Not bad hey!!!
If i look back over 2009 and analyse my trades...When i wait for the 60min charts to position themselves in a trend and bounce off major support and resistance i then make lots of pips (for example last week). When the setups are poor and i go searching for trades I end up getting smashed. Its simple when u think about it!!! Lets be patient and wait for the big moves and not go searching or we will end up 2nd best...
My 3 most profitable trades this year have been CABLE, GBPJPY and EURGBP. Three trades all going long of GBP and ones i left to run for a while. Simple, controlled and emotion free...
I am waiting for the next big moves but we need to be patient and wait for the right setups and then we can attack. Next week should be good and big levels will be tested. I will talk you through everything early next week so u r well positioned and ready for the moves.
Sorry about my long email but been up since 4am. Off to play gold with Mr P.....
Have a great weekend.
D
Anyone watching the Masters?
How good are was Anthony Kim with a 65...11 birdies in one round. Thats unreal!
D
Morning all
Trust you had a good weekend.
Cabrera wins the masters, Harlequins get knocked out of the Heineken Cup & Arsenal have surely secured 4th spot... What a weekend of sport!
See you all tom at 6.30am.
D