The London Open - page 138
You are missing trading opportunities:
- Free trading apps
- Over 8,000 signals for copying
- Economic news for exploring financial markets
Registration
Log in
You agree to website policy and terms of use
If you do not have an account, please register
A city trader
There is not much point doing a closing commentary on a daily basisthese day as every day seems to roll into one. Kazakh banks continuetheir march towards a price of zero thanks to continuing uncertaintysurrounding the nationalisation of Bta and Allibk coupled with themargin/stop loss selling I continue to see out of Asia. The short storyis that there is clearly some value in this sector however performancewill not be immediate and it is probably better to get more claritybefore you go swimming without any arm bands. Russia is still the same,treading water on the most part with the odd pocket of buying here andthere. My favourite rating agency downgraded a load of Kazakh andRussian institutions today, dare I say it but Desert Orchid has alreadyleft the stables!The developed world obviously continues to be a mess. As I am writing Iam listening to the latest enquiry/testimony from Capitol Hill. I maybemistaken but it seems to me that no one has a clue how to get us out ofthis mess and bailing the likes of AIG, GM or any there loss makingbusiness is not going to accelerate the recovery process. Every onecriticized the Japanese for bailing out the banks in the 90s but whatis happening right now in my view is much worse and will mean this D&Glasts far longer than it should have/could have had we taken the pain upfront as opposed to spreading it over a longer period of time. Goodnight all enjoy the Champ League games.
Mr P.....
Its interesting when you look at trading and work out why you have good days and bad days...
Is it down to your own ability or is it the market? Well being human it is probably a bit of both but i only tend to make mistakes trying to cheat the market (for example trying to find tops and bottoms of markets.) When i am patient and wait for good setups i tend to do vvv well...So should i punish myself when i have tried to beat the market at its own game??? The market was tough today, i didnt like the setups so i shouldnt have entered. Yes there were possibilities as there always are but you cant take every trade and every trend reversal on a 15min chart or a 5min chart..
Remember there is no pressure to trade all day...You are better off waiting for setups that you like and feel comfortable with, rather than jumping in.
The main thing is to keep it simple...You only need 250 pips a week to make a huge success so do you need to trade all day long to make 50 pips on average? No..... As long as you are patient and wait for the correct setups eg trade with the trend and 60min 20ma then the rest should take care of itself...
Look how Julie has made 60 pips today in a tough market. She has made her pips and moved on..That is what it is all about... Get in, get out and move on!!!
Stick to your business plans, dont over trade and make sure you feel comfortable with every trade you take.
Ok speak to you tomorrow.
Dan
London Open - Wednesday 25th February
Good morning London…
Bank stocks soared yesterday after Mr Bernanke made the strongest comments yet against nationalizing major Wall St firms… That’s a start!
Its been a tough week so far on the London Open and with the JPY´s powering up with no retracement as yet we need to be very careful of any long plays in GBP and EUR against the USD.
CABLE
• Lower highs on 60min chart with Daily 50ma holding as resistance.
• 4hr 20ma and Daily 20ma holding support so we have a box scenario
• Look for a break above 1.4560 level and stop below the 60min 20ma.
• Problem we have in GBPJPY needs a retracement so be careful.
EURUSD
• 4hr 20ma has crossed the 4hr 50ma for a positive note on the EUR.
• 15min chart shows support on the 60min 20ma.
• 1.2850 on topside would be level to break for a few cheeky pips.
• However EURGBP isn’t great and EURJPY must be getting top heavy at these levels so if EURJPY breaks the 60min 20ma/DP look for the south side to the WP level.
USDCAD
• 60min chart suggests weakness back into the USD and 15min chart shows a small sign of strength.
• Not interested on the upside unless we break the WP at 1.2525 or downside a break of the DP and 15min 50ma around the 1.2425 level.
EURGBP
• Boxed between the 60min 20ma and 50ma
• Looks weak and if GBPUSD can rally above the 55/60 level look for this to test the 60min 50ma.
• At mom it would be a very tight stop loss above the 60min 20ma.
AUDUSD
• 4hr 20ma crossing the 4hr 50ma which is good for the AUD.
• However there has been an oscillating market over the 4hr 20ma.
• I would like to see support off the 4hr 20ma for a real push through the Daily 20ma and WR1 (previous high) at 0.6550 for a move to the 0.6625 level.
GOLD
• After the cheeky 40 pip play up for Martin yesterday GOLD as expected has broken the 4hr 20ma.
• All uptrends come to an end at some point and the 4hr 20ma had to give in.
• The pullback happened overnight and has since moved down from the $965.00 level.
• Look for pullbacks and sell with the trend until the 60min 20ma is broken again.
Verdict
CABLE looks good for a break of previous high at 55 but GBPJPY could be my curve ball and I need to see this to remain strong.
EURGBP only needs a tight stop above the 60min 20ma for a test down to the 60min 50ma.
AUDUSD holding the 60min 20ma… A tight play with stop below.
Not easy with JPYs overbought. The one thing we do know is that the market is long of JPY and figures from Japan are vvv weak, exports etc. Long term book on JPY´s looks good but short term makes JPYs very hard to trade today.
See you at 7.00am.
Dan
JPY Desk - Wednesday 25th February
Good morning all.
It appears I owe you all a couple of beers.
Pop over when you have a couple of hours to kill and the debt will gladly be paid.
100.00 for USDJPY doesn’t seem to be to far away at all now does it?
• In dire need for a pullback but no clear entry above 96.50
• Will be keeping a close eye on this this morning as a break of 60m 20ema will see this a little lower
GBPJPY
• Has just been trickling up but to the tune of over 1000 pips this month
• No chance of buying at these levels so need to either wait for pullback to 4hr 20ema or look for a short to that region
• Dangerous to play above 140.00 but a break of 60m 20ema could see the pivot targeted at 139.00 then maybe more
EURJPY
• 124.00 seems to be the level that needs breaking here but 60m 20ema is at 123.70
• Watch out for USDJPY and EURUSD to confirm
Verdict……….
Not a morning to get carried away and as we have discovered, playing against the trend can be lucrative but can also be highly risky so consider these ONLY if you are ready to pull the plug in an instant if the corresponding pairs do not behave.
Maybe we’re better off sitting on our hands, waiting for the retracements to happen before building long positions.
I like them to fall a bit and will be taking short positions if I get clean breaks.
Have a good morning
A great morning Team London... I felt like a kid in a sweet shop.
AUDUSD, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF...
Watch the JPYs. We ignored them this am but getting tempting for pullbacks. Tell me not to play them!!!
See u later.
D
New York Open - Wednesday 25th February
Good afternoon all……
Seems like yesterdays little reversal play was fully refunded with GBPJPY through 14000 and EURJPY through 12400. USDJPY not materialised into much yet but not bothered about a 10-20 pip hit. It doesn’t really put a dent in the possible 300 pips available on the former two, so will continue to look for reversals opposed to sitting back waiting for the retracements before going long again.
Not fair if Anders gets ALL the pips. I want my share and you deserve a few too but remember, SMALLER STAKES !
USDJPY-
• Failing to take out 60m 20ema so longer term still intact at the moment
• No news to stimulate until late-on but cannot go long again before 97.00
• Double bottom at 96.35 possible so need to see break of that level for push lower
GBPJPY-
• A nice pullback to pivot and 60m 50sma sees this pair weak with Sterling
• Might push back and re-test 60m 20ema at 14000 but move down happened already and impossible to just jump in
EURJPY-
• A nice break of 12400 has seen this fall 80 odd pips and bounce off WR2
• With EURUSD finding support off the 4hr 20ema and looking messy a continuation down for EURJPY looks unlikely at the moment
USDCHF-
• A mess at the moment
• Needs to break above WP at 11645 for push higher but not looking for anything at all here
GBPCHF-
• Played the break of 16830 after this am’s session down to weekly pivot for a cool 100 or so and really want to go long here at 16700
• Very dangerous so will refrain for the moment with price under all the averages
EURCHF
• Found support off WP after nice fall through 60m 20ema
• Still liking it down IF the averages catch up
• Needs to break 14800 ideally
Verdict…….
Hmmmmmmmmmm, tricky having seen some nice moves. 1m charts anyone??
Joking aside I don’t see any potential in any of these pairs at the moment so will take a look at indices and a couple of other pairs and keep you all posted.
Hi
Yes last trade for me was the GBPJPY for a quick 95... Overall a great day and a few pips made...Well done team.
Very happy with todays pips with controlled trading.
See u tom.
Dan
So a little action in EM to report. It appears that all the ratingagencies have recently returned from a 6 month sabbatical as they havebeen downgrading every man and his dog these past few days. Whatstaggers me is that rating agency moves still have an effect on themarket. Ukraine a country that has been on its knees for nearly 6months, its bonds trading at 35, its CDS trading up front, and yetfollowing a downgrade there are sellers out there!! Turkey is back onstock watch again tracking the S&P although interestingly the cash seemsto be in demand about as much as a Kazakh bank. I really don't have a clue where stocks are going near term, longer termlooking at the charts I fear much lower. People are banging on about USCDS trading at 100 over etc what if they default? Well bottom line itsnot happening, if you don't like the dollar what do you want to buy theEuro or Pound instead? For those of you who have seen Die Hard with aVengeance will know that thanks to Bruce Willis and Samuel L Jackson(it's a true story!) the US have got plenty of gold reserves (at leastGW didn't sell a chunk of reserves at the lows unlike some one else Iknow!) and the way all the economies are going Gold is going to be theonly commodity that the world cares about in the future and therefore ifyou have a lot of it your in better shape than your neighbours who soldtheirs. Bottom line this whole thing is all about the dollar, and theUS economy until we do see some green shoots in the US the outlook isstill extremely uncertain.
Mr P.....
London Open Notes - Thursday 26th February
Good morning London and the rest of the world
I am packing my house and I have to say I hate every minute. Bring on Saturday when I can sit back and relax!!!
GBP Figs at 7.00am – Nationwide HP
10.30am – BOE Gov Kin
CABLE
GBP looks weak again with yesterdays low at 1.4160.
There is a lot of support around the 1.4000/1.4150 area
I would be very careful with CABLE around these levels until we break this support from early FEB.
If you are going to trade short, keep tight stops.
5.00am was the time to enter and same with EURUSD.
EURUSD*
My longer term view is bearish as you know and 60min chart looks weak again and testing the support level.
The trend hasn’t been clear over the last couple of weeks but with the 4hr 20ma at 1.2760 its worth looking at for a short play
Use the 4hr 20ma and 60min 20ma to your advantage.
USDCAD
With CABLE looking weak again and USD strength coming into play USDCAD has found support.
Resistance at 1.2600 on 60min chart.
15min chart shows break of resistance at 1.2545. If we see USD strength come into play look for small long but again with tight stop due to CABLE at large support levels.
Use trigger here if possible.
EURGBP
With GBP falling with EUR, EURGBP has gathered momentum and is now showing signs of support off the Daily 20ma.
Watch any break back above the 0.8940/50 level.
Likewise watch EURUSD and CABLE for help with direction.
Any break below the 60min 20ma could see a few pips down to the 4hr 20ma.
AUDUSD
USD strength coming back into play and if EURUSD falls watch AUDUSD weaken to its WP and support on the 60min chart.
Any break below the 0.6400 level would see larger moves south.
Daily 20ma at 0.6500 is previous high and immediate resistance.
If USD weakens then look for break here up to the WR1 for 50 pips.
GOLD
$1000 was a great place to bank the long trades ahead of previous highs.
The Golden Cross is coming back into pay on the south side but believe this is only a small retracement before taking off again.
Yesterdays low at $944.00.
Yes downward trend but too far away from the 60min 20ma this morning to trade.
Wait for better entry or play bounce off the $944.00 with tight stop below.
Dan
JPY & CHF Desk Notes - Thursday 26th February
Good morning all….
A very nice day yesterday overall, which was good after a slowish start to the week.
This morning sees a slightly conflicting opinion in my eyes with USDJPY looking pretty strong still but EURUSD and GBPUSD looking weak.
This is tough to gauge when trying to trade Yen crosses so we’ll take a good look at the Swiss pairs too.
USDJPY-
• Getting close to the all important 100.00. can we get it this week?
• Looks a little bit tired up here but not looking for short positions as there’s no gaps big enough
EURJPY-
• Potential double top at 12500 might be indicative of a little reversal
• Trying to break 60m 20ema but with pivot directly below there’s no potential of a short above 12400
• Look for break of that region then target 60m 50sma then WR2 then 4hr 20ema
GBPJPY-
• Potential 200 pips yesterday in all on this one from 14000 down to 4hr 20ema. Shame it didn’t fall to T3 & T4 but not bad all the same
• Need to see USDJPY fall off to get break of 15m 50sma to the south so watch that and GBPUSD, then look for break of 13880 and target 4hr 20ema at 13825, previous low of 13800 then WR1 at 13700
USDCHF-
• Looks quite good to move up even with resistance at 11750.
• A break of that area could see 11900 being hit
• Keep an eye on EURUSD moving in the opposite direction
• Only 25 pip stop required so small risk
GBPCHF-
• Fallen a long long way yesterday once through the 4hr 20ema. 4hr 50sma was also key here.
• Looks like a move lower imminent but with USDCHF moving up I am not interested in this pair for a push lower
EURCHF-
• Look for break of DP at 14865 targeting firstly the WP at .35 then 14800
VERDICT……..
Long position on USDCHF IF EURUSD holds below 12700
Short position on GBPCHF IF EURUSD moves up as USDCHF would then fall with a weak cable (if holding below 14200) forcing this pair lower
Have a great morning
Zak