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Morning Trade - Friday 13th February
Good morning all
Its Friday and lets play sensible today
Use the 60min 20ma to your advantage and play the right side of it
CABLE
60min chart is not looking that attractive on the upside with MP, WP, 4hr 20ma, 4hr 50ma etc just above. However support seems to be coming back into the market with USDJPY and GBPJPY showing signs of strength.
The 15min chart shows the 60min 20ma close to crossing the 60min 50ma which will boost GBP this am. At present look to buy off the 60min 20ma with stop above
Any cross back down through the 60min 20ma and DP at 1.4265 level would mean further weakness in GBP and I would look to sell on the break of these levels.
The 4hr 20ma at the DR1 will be prime resistance at 1.4420 and look for a break here. Any pullback onto the 60min 20ma could offer a better entry.
Watch GBPJPY and GBPCHF for help in direction in GBP.
EURUSD
60min chart is very messy. A solid break out of triangle yesterday afternoon and the strong support was met at WS1 at 1.2750.
Where to now? Hard to read direction…Best to work off 15min chart and use the 60min 20ma to your advantage
15min chart showing signs of life this am above the WP but I need EURJPY to play ball so keep a firm eye here for EUR direction this morning.
EURGBP
60min chart suggests a lack of direction with GBP not quite sure which way to move over the last 24 hours.
0.9000 seems to be holding and any break above the MP at 0.9090 would signal further strength but you would need GBPUSD to weaken and at the moment GBP seems to be holding.
Look for further strength in EURGBP if CABLE breaks back down below its 60min 20ma.
USDCAD
60min chart suggests strong resistance at the 1.2540 level. How many times can it hit this level.
If the USD weakens against GBP this morning then USD should weaken here and a pullback would be on down to the DS1 at 1.2365.
Use the 60min 20ma to your advantage here.
AUDUSD
2 breaks yesterday in AUDUSD and banked just under 100 pips for 50%. Bit surprised my balance has been stopped out back above the 0.6500 level and AUD is showing a little bit of life again.
The 60min chart is not looking great but a break back above the WP at 0.6600 should see a break up to the MP at 0.6675 for starters.
Again it all depends on the USD and what direction it is driven this am.
Keep a firm eye on this today.
Dan
JPY Desk - Friday 13th February
Good morning all.
It’s Friday, so looking for minimum of 200 pips today to finish up rather sweetly.
Still holding the GBPJPY from yesterday’s PM session through 130.00.
Many are talking USDJPY back up to 110.00 so I might just hold this on the back of that speculation, knowing that all GBPUSD has to do is hold it’s own for my position to give me 500 pips or more.
USDJPY
• Only has the weekly pivot at 91.00 to content with then it’s potentially all systems go.
• Wait for break of previous high at 91.35
GBPJPY
• Too much resistance overhead to warrant new long position
• Need to break up through 4hr 50sma at 131.30 before you can start looking for the WP area at 133.00 as a target
EURJPY
• Appears to be a bit of room between WP at 117.50 and MP at 118.60
• Need USDJPY and EURUSD to push up but both have a lot of daylight up ahead so hopeful
• Stop needs to be behind weekly pivot if it does push up
• Waiting for some consolidation first then a break of the .85 region.
GBPCHF
• With some temporary sterling strength re-emerging late on yesterday now looking good to upside
• 4hr 20&50 have crossed negatively so can only play the box between the 2
• 1.6675 is the level to look for here aiming for 4hr 20 at 1.6735, then the 50 at 1.6848
Summary……
Would like to see USDJPY break the .35 level and go long for a longer-term position.
Another one worthy of mention is EURCHF although we don’t cover it. I have an order to go long through the weekly pivot at 1.4985
Have a good morning,
Zak
JPY PM Desk - Friday 13th February
Good afternoon all.
A nice start to the day with everything bar EURCHF going according to plan.
Going to be stubborn and hold it. If it breaks the pivot then it’s dead but theres a slim chance it won’t and theres a difference of only 15 pips from 60m 50 to that pivot.
GBPJPY continued up in good form though, USDJPY broke up, EURJPY broke up, and finally GBPCHF done the business in fine fashion, so 200 target completely smashed. Now want 300 more !!!
USDJPY
In this from .30 and looks promising for some more.
Stop now at breakeven so a free ride.
15m trigger just coming in now so might be worth another go here with a tight 20pip stop.
GBPJPY
Had a big run and possibly not over yet. Banked part position but leaving rest open.
Can’t go long after so much green on 60m
Wait for retracement on 60m chart
Sterling has been very strong but could easily fall back
EURJPY
Played the gap between WP & MP for a cheeky few
60m looks interesting
Really needs EURUSD on our side but that particular pair needs to break above 12900 first.
Wait for trigger on 60m
GBPCHF
Still looking bid. A great easy straight-forward break of that 16665 from morning notes nailed that and both targets hit in good fashion.
Needs 60m retrace really and a potential double top on 15m could give opportunity to short from WP if it materializes.
USDCHF
Good to go north in my opinion
Breaking DP as I write, this might make a move to the resistance at 11670
Look for 123 on 5m or play break small and add later.
EURCHF
With Swiss weakness this once dead and buried trade is back on the menu.
Obvious level of WP needs to get broken at .85 as before
Unlucky to those spiked in and stopped out. not a massive loser and just unfortunate with Euro weakness creeping in.
Summary…..
EURUSD short through DP is one I am going for along with USDCHF long. More to follow.
Have a great afternoon
Zak
Have a great weekend. Come on England!!!
D
Hello London Open Thread
How sad and lonely you appear to be. I still love you, I still want you, I still read you every day.
In fact, condensed Dan, (all to myself!).
Lovely.
Thanks Dan, you are still very much appreciated (and I can read you like a book, ha ha).
RS
PS The rugby was rubbish! I'm going to defect to NZ, all those lovely rugby boys who know how to play rugby, phwoar!!!! The only bit I enjoyed were the anthems for Italy - Italia, Italia... and Les Bleu - the Marse wotsit, always good for a sing-a-long.
Hello London Open Thread How sad and lonely you appear to be. I still love you, I still want you, I still read you every day. In fact, condensed Dan, (all to myself!). Lovely. Thanks Dan, you are still very much appreciated (and I can read you like a book, ha ha). RS PS The rugby was rubbish! I'm going to defect to NZ, all those lovely rugby boys who know how to play rugby, phwoar!!!! The only bit I enjoyed were the anthems for Italy - Italia, Italia... and Les Bleu - the Marse wotsit, always good for a sing-a-long.
Hey R,
The rugby on Saturday was immense. For those of us actually in the Millenium Stadium that is!! I was sat behind the posts with my lad and it was just a great day out. You need to learn the Welsh one....."Mae hen wlad fy nhadau yn annwyl i mi............."That puts a shiver down the spine. Now remind me what was the score Wales 23 - England 15.
Pipless Rockie
Morning Trade - Monday 16th February
Morning all
Trust you had a good weekend
Short GBPJPY and EURJPY on breaks of support and looking at USDCAD for break.
Trade with the 60min 20ma as much as possible and limit risk with stop behind.
CABLE
Trend is down with 60min 20ma crossing the 60min 50ma.
Support on 15min chart has been broken.
Risk is high at the moment with the 60min 20ma over 120 pips away at 1.4300
Watch GBPCHF and GBPJPY for further GBP weakness.
GBPCHF
Trend is down with 60min 20ma crossing the 60min 50ma on the downside.
15min support at 1.6530 level. Need a break here for confirmation of further GBP weakness.
GBPJPY***
Trend is down and breaking MP at 130.50 as we speak.
Previous low at 130.00 and needs to break here for confirmation that GBP will weaken further.
60min 20ma at 131.00 so risk is around 100 pips.
EURGBP
Trend is flat but trying to creep up with GBP weakness. Problems lies that EURUSD is falling as well.
60min 20ma showing signs of support and a break back above 0.9005 should signal further weakness in GBP.
Watch GBPUSD and GBP across the board for direction.
USDJPY
This is our curve ball as trend is up at the moment with support above the 60min 20ma.
Need to be careful of a fake out and see if GBPJPY breaks down and drags USDJPY with it. However if USDJPY does move up then we need to be careful of GBPJPY on the downside. Patience is needed
Any break back below the 60min 20ma would help GBPJPY through its support at 130.00.
EURJPY***
Trend is down and following the shape of GBPJPY.
Support at 116.80 and needs to break here for further EUR weakness.
60min 20ma at 117.50 so risk will be 70 pips.
EURUSD
Trend is down and 60min 20ma is over 80 pips away.
The 15min support line has been broken but wary this am that the 15min 20ma crossed the 60min 20ma over 160 pips away.
Looking for selling opportunities and would prefer to wait to trade closer to the 60min 20ma.
USDCAD
With GBP weakening this am the USD should find support against the CAD.
1.2450 would signal a break of previous high.
The 60min 20ma is just below at 1.2400 so risk is limited
AUDUSD
Trend is down and broken support at 0,.6500.
DS1 too close and looking to trade closer to the 60min 20ma.
Look for selling opportunities when they arise.
Dan
Hey R,The rugby on Saturday was immense. For those of us actually in the Millenium Stadium that is!! I was sat behind the posts with my lad and it was just a great day out. You need to learn the Welsh one....."Mae hen wlad fy nhadau yn annwyl i mi............."That puts a shiver down the spine. Now remind me what was the score Wales 23 - England 15. Pipless Rockie
Hey Rock
One of the guys in my office is (posh) Welsh and boy have I had a ribbing all day! He loved it too. He said we were lucky Wales had a bad day and played a poor match or we would have been stuffed, hee hee. (Perm heads).
Glad it put a smile on your face - I'll just go and ogle Dan Carter and Rupert Pembrey-Jones and Johnny Depp and then I'll have a smile on my face too!
Thanks for the email it really, really, really cheered me up.
Bora da!
RS
Its really very nice of you Dan007 for your information . i am really obliged.
London Open - Tuesday 17th February
Good morning all
Asia has had a lot of fun and big moves were made…Risk today of pullbacks so be aware
Its not easy this morning…Remember to trade with the trend as much as possible and reduce your risk by trading close to the 60min 20ma
CABLE
Trend is down and below 60min and 4hr 20ma.
Surprisingly this currency moved the least last night with the EUR taking most of the impact.
1.4150 is support and where we stand at 1.4200 makes CABLE very hard to trade this am.
It does look weak this morning but be aware of the 1.4150 support.
GBPJPY
60min chart looks messy with close support below (4hr20ma, Daily 20ma, MP) and close resistance above (4hr 50ma, Daily 50ma, WP)
Need to be patient here and wait for a break of these levels.
GBPCHF
A solid rally last night and now holding 4hr 20ma.
Not comfortable with GBP across the board today so will wait for GBPJPY to make its move to show us direction.
Watch GBPCHF above the 1.6700 level for a sign of strength in GBP
EURGBP
Classic break lower yesterday with the 60min 20ma crossing the 60min 50ma.
Hard to trade at this level with the market oversold in ASIA.
Look for further weakness here when triggers line up to downside and look for break of the 4hr 50ma.
EURUSD
As mentioned yesterday the EUR is under extreme pressure and I and many are bearish on this currency.
The important 1.2700 has been broken and we should look for selling opportunities with the trend.
The price is too far from the 60min 20ma to trade with the trend and risk of a pullback is too high so best to leave for now unless you play the pullback.
Watch the cross of the 7ma with the 15min 20ma but again a very risky trade.
EURJPY
EURJPY will be torn with USDJPY strong and EURUSD weak.
EUR is weak and USDJPY could pullback this am so you could see EURJPY weaken a little here but I am not overly convinced. Watch USDJPY for any pullback.
USDJPY
Looks supported and as mentioned this will continue to climb back to the 100.00 then the 110.00 level.
Price is too far from the 60min 20ma for any play at the moment so we need a pullback before looking for any long plays.
Remember to play as close to the 60min 20ma to reduce risk and exposure.
AUDUSD
Heavy selling overnight and triggers too low for an entry.
Look to trade with trend but need to see retracement before an entry.
USDCAD
The USD is finding support and USDCAD is lining up the 1.2550 resistance level.
Wait for next 60min trigger for momentum to break this level.
If GBPUSD breaks the 1.4150 support level, USDCAD should make its attack.
Dan