Eur/usd - page 335

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EUR/USD: Dollar Drops on Disappointing Labor Market

The US economy created only 142,000 jobs in September, up from the downwardly revised 136,000 previously reported as 173,000 in August, according to the latest non-farm payrolls report. The unemployment rate remained at 5.1%.

Meanwhile, average hourly earnings dropped to 0.0% from 0.4% month-on-month, while the yearly change remained at 2.2%.

Over the past three months, payrolls grew just 167,000, which is the weakest print since the period of December 2013 to February 2014.

The initial reaction was volatile and the EUR/USD pair jumped one big figure to trade at new daily highs around $1.1250.

"The convergence of the 50/100 and 200 day MA should continue to act as support near 1.1140 and as such the potential for a move back towards 1.1400 remains. Only a move below the lows this month at 1.1080 suggests a move back towards 1.0820," Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK, wrote on Friday.

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NFP came lower than expected but still the EUR/USD didnt find enough support and rebounds from 1.1290 resistance

 

EUR/USD forecast for the week of October 5, 2015

The EUR/USD pair went back and forth during the course of the week, as we continue to bounce between the 1.11 level on the bottom and the 1.13 level on the top. We also have an uptrend line just below though, so having said that we feel that buying pressure will continue to push the market higher. The 1.15 level above is resistance, and as a result we think that this market is going to continue to be far too tight for longer-term traders to be involved at this point.

 

EUR/USD Forecast Oct. 5-9

EUR/USD had an interesting trade at the turn of the quarter, eventually jumping higher but unable to hold the gains once again. The ECB’s meeting minutes as well as industrial figures will set the tone. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

The euro-zone fell back into deflation but core figures remained stable, allowing Draghi some breathing space. Draghi did see economic growth rising but refrained from monetary policy hints. Elsewhere, Spain’s success story seems to fade with higher unemployment and disappointing manufacturing. In the US, data disappointing, with a nightmare NFP report, that sent the pair shooting higher coming back down towards the middle of the range.

  • Finance ministers meet: Monday and Tuesday for the Eurogroup and Tuesday for all EU 28 ministers. This is the first meeting since the new government in Athens has been sworn in. Will the big elephant of debt be discussed? In addition, the employment situation, the refugee crisis, the UK’s membership in the EUR and more topics will like be on the table.
  • Services PMI: Monday: Spain at 7:15, Italy at 7:45, final French number at 7:50, German final number at 7:55 and the final euro-zone figure at 8:00. According to Markit, the Spanish services sector enjoyed very strong growth in August, with 59.6 points, well above the 50 point mark separating growth and contraction.. A score of 59.7 is expected now. Italy lags behind with 54.6 points and is expected to print 54.8 points now. According to the preliminary assessment for France, the services sector was in expansion in September, albeit a slow one with 51.2 points. Germany had a stronger score of 54.3 points. The whole euro-zone had 54 points. The last three numbers will likely be confirmed in the final read.
  • Sentix Investor Confidence: Monday, 8:30. This wide survey has shown a significant drop in sentiment, with a score of 13.6 points in September. The fresh read for October could show a lower score: 12.2 points.
  • Retail Sales: Monday, 9:00. While the all-euro-zone figure is released after the German publication, it still carries weight. An advance of 0.4% was seen in July and a small drop of 0.1% is on the cards now.

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EUR/USD will continue to drop by the beginning of the week now price is under a resistance level of MVA 20, I wish everyone a good weekend.

 

1.12 is like a magnet!

 
arigoldman:
1.12 is like a magnet!

And it is becoming a support

 

The single currency ended the week with a small increase of 9 points. The pair registered a volatile session due to the US employment report. The resistance at 1.1290 endured the test and daily extreme levels were recorded respectively at 1.1150 and 1.1317. Currently the expectations are negative as next target is the levels at 1.1180.

 

Sentix Eurozone investor confidence Oct 11.7 vs 11.8 exp

Not key data but worth noting in general appraisal

  • 13.6 prev

EURGBP 0.7403 after 0.7409 highs in the wake of awful UK services PMI data

EURUSD still enjoying the session at 1.1257 after 1.1264 highs

 

On Friday session the EURUSD initially rallied with a wide range but gave out most of its gains back to the market, but still managed to close in the green near the open of the day.

The pair is making a downward triangle since late August suggesting a move of 626 pips on the break of the triangle until them we may expect a range bound move.

The key levels to watch are 1.1460 (Resistance), 1.1237 (resistance), the 10-day moving average at 1.1206 (support) and 1.1097 (support).

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