Eur/usd - page 164
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yeah all indicators show that price is oversold on the daily but we are still in the bearish trend
EURUSD initially fell during the course of yesterday session, but found enough support just below the 1.27 level to turn things back around and form a hammer pattern. The hammer of suggests that we could get a bounce. If we can get above the 1.28 handle, the market will then head to the 1.30 level, with the area continuing to offer significant resistance.
EUR/USD holds steady, near 2-year lows after Gfk report
The euro held steady against the U.S. dollar on Friday, hovering close to two-year lows after the release of disappointing German consumer climate data added to concerns over a slowdown in the euro zone's biggest economy.
EUR/USD hit 1.2738 during late Asian trade, the session low; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.2742, dipping 0.06%.
The pair was likely to find support at 1.2660 and resistance at 1.2864, the high of September 24.
The euro remained under pressure after data showed that the Gfk German consumer climate index ticked down to 8.3 this month, from a reading of 8.6 in August. Analysts had expected the index to slip to 8.5.
The report added to concerns over the outlook for growth in the euro zone's biggest economy as data on Wednesday showed that Germany's Ifo business confidence index deteriorated for the fifth successive month in September.
The single currency dropped to nearly two-year lows against the dollar on Thursday after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi reiterated the bank's commitment to act with more policy measures to boost inflation in the euro zone.
"We stand ready to use additional unconventional instruments within our mandate, and alter the size or composition of our unconventional interventions should it become necessary to further address risks of a too prolonged period of low inflation," Draghi said.
On Wednesday, Mario Draghi had already vowed to keep monetary policy "accommodative" for as long as needed, and to use every tool at the ECB's disposal to fight deflation.
Meanwhile, demand for the dollar was still underpinned by expectations for an early U.S. rate hike.
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EUR/USD Sep. 26 – struggles to recover from big blow ahead of US GDP
EUR/USD is making attempts to regain the lost double bottom line of 1.2750, and continues trading at lows last seen in November 2012. The strength of the dollar is certainly the main theme, but European fundamentals cannot really help. In the last day of this exciting week, we have the final release of US GDP, among other events.
Are very important and will condition the next market movements, the latest statements of the ECB President how will do everything necessary to prevent the risk of deflation.
Euro hits fresh multi-month lows vs. stronger dollar
The euro dropped to fresh multi-month lows against the U.S. dollar on Friday, hovering close to a two-year trough as positive U.S. economic growth data lent further support to the greenback.
EUR/USD hit 1.2691 during U.S. morning trade, the pair's lowest since November 2012; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.2703, declining 0.37%.
The pair was likely to find support at 1.2500 level and resistance at 1.2864, the high of September 24.
In a revised report, the University of Michigan said its consumer sentiment index remained unchanged at 84.6 this month, compared to expectations for an uptick to 84.7.
The data came after the Commerce Department said U.S. gross domestic product expanded at an annual rate of 4.6% in the second quarter, in line with the consensus forecast, after contracting by 2.1% in the first three months of the year.
U.S. second quarter GDP was initially reported to have increased by 4.2%.
The positive data added to expectations for an early U.S. rate hike, after Dallas Federal Reserve President Richard Fisher said that the U.S. central bank may start raising interest rates around the spring of 2015.
The euro remained under pressure after data earlier showed that the Gfk German consumer climate index ticked down to 8.3 this month, from a reading of 8.6 in August. Analysts had expected the index to slip to 8.5.
The report added to concerns over the outlook for growth in the euro zone's biggest economy as data on Wednesday showed that Germany's Ifo business confidence index deteriorated for the fifth successive month in September.
The single currency dropped to nearly two-year lows against the dollar on Thursday after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi reiterated the bank's commitment to act with more policy measures to boost inflation in the euro zone.
"We stand ready to use additional unconventional instruments within our mandate, and alter the size or composition of our unconventional interventions should it become necessary to further address risks of a too prolonged period of low inflation," Draghi said.
The euro was near two-year lows against the pound, with EUR/GBP slipping 0.10% to 0.7807.
source
price is trying to close under the support and this can push the price for further downtrend
EUR/USD forecast for the week of September 29, 2014
The EUR/USD pair initially tried to rally during the week, but as you can see ended up falling and slicing through the 1.28 level like it wasn’t even there. Because of this, we believe that the euro continues to offer selling opportunities on rallies, but at this point in time we think that the market is probably aiming for the 1.25 handle. Be aware though, this is a market that is certainly oversold by any stretch of imagination and a snapback rally could happen at any point. Ultimately though, we have no plans on buying.
source
EUR/USD Forecast Sep. 29 – Oct. 3
EUR/USD continued deteriorating and broke down to the lowest levels since November 2012. Is it getting close to the bottom or can we expect more falls? The keys are in the hand of Mario Draghi. Apart from the ECB meeting, we have inflation numbers as well as PMIs and other events . Here is an outlook on the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.
Also another German survey showed worse than expected business confidence. Preliminary PMIs were mixed but certainly unimpressive and Draghi joined in by reiterating that the ECB is ready to do more. Yet a big part of the move came from the other side of the Atlantic, as the US dollar continued forward, beating all its major peers. It was boosted by the highest new home sales in 6 years, as well as the expected upgrade to GDP. How will the pair fare in the new quarter?
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Dollar Outlook: Near-Term Bull To Continue, But Market Extended
The dollar is staging an advance of a duration and magnitude that has not been seen for several years. The pace has taken many unaware, even though dollar bulls have been repeatedly frustrated. For several quarters, investors, analysts and reporters struggled to explain why the euro in particular was seemingly inexplicably strong, and now that is has reversed, there is feigned surprised.
Fundamental, technical and psychological factors are in alignment, pointing to a stronger dollar. The divergence between the US (and UK) on one hand, and the euro area and Japan, has been long anticipated.
It was expected to be driven by the tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. Instead, the precipitating factor has been driven by falling nominal rates in the euro area.
A rate hike by the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve are likely six and nine months away respectively (March and June 2015). The ECB has moved first. Although the ECB’s balance sheet has not expanded very much, it has signaled it will.
Despite all the talk after the FOMC new forecasts about a shift toward an earlier hike, we note that the June 2015 Eurodollar futures contract is very little changed. Consider the implied rate at last week's close was 55.5 bp. The 100-day average is 55.5 bp and the 200-day average is 58 bp.
The implications of negative 20 bp deposit have not proven to be as disruptive as feared, but the longer they persist, the greater the risk of unintended consequences. We simply have not been down this particular rabbit hole before, and, to mix metaphors, policy makers and investors are in uncharted waters.
The BOJ is also engaged in an experiment. The pace at which it is expanding its balance sheet is unprecedented. It is one thing to issue debt (which is to say, borrow) at negative rates like Germany has done. It is quite another to buy bills from the market, as the BOJ has done, at negative yields. It's not just where the Fed and BOE are headed or the ECB and BOJ, but together both sides are moving in opposite directions. This divergence, coupled with technical breakouts and follow through activity has emboldened many participants.
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