GBPUSD news - page 80
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GBP/USD forecast for the week of February 15, 2016 The GBP/USD pair initially fell during the course the week, then turned back around to form a bit of a hammer. The hammer of course is a bullish sign, so I feel that the market is going to continue to rally, and that we could go as high as the 1.48 level in the short-term. We could even go as high as 1.50 level, but the one thing that we have to question is whether or not the US dollar has already seen the highs. After all, Janet Yellen has suggested that the Federal Reserve cannot raise interest rates anytime soon, and that was part of what was driving the Forex market into the arms of the US dollar.
Ultimately though, you also have to keep in mind that there is a lot of uncertainty out there, so that does tend to put a bit of a natural bid in for the US dollar. This point in time though, it looks as if the market will rally because it looks as if the buyers continue to enter this market again and again. Ultimately though, we do recognize that there is a lot of noise above, especially once you get above the 1.50 handle so at this point in time while we are bullish, we also recognize that this run will only be for so long
If we break down below the bottom of the hammer, it’s very likely that the market will continue to go lower, and that would be extraordinarily bearish. The 1.40 level below is a bit of a floor, but ultimately we could go below there if there is a lot of concern around the world or some type of headline shock. However, the charts suggest that we are going to see strength so this would be more or less a bit of an outlier order reaction to something going on as far as economic announcements or some type of shock. Ultimately, this is a market that will be volatile regardless what happens, and therefore you will have to be careful and keep your position size somewhat small.
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Weak Inflation Keeps BoE Fast Asleep Market consensus suggests the UK's headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation edged up again slightly to 0.3% in January, but core inflation, a less volatile measure stripped of food and energy prices, is seen sliding again by one percentage point to 1.3%. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) is releasing fresh figures on Tuesday.
Inflation in the UK has been hovering near zero since early last year. Cheaper imports, the pass-through effect of the past appreciation of sterling, and subdued wage growth all keep consumer prices markedly tamed, allowing the Bank of England (BoE) to maintain an ultra-accommodative monetary policy for longer.
Oil continued to plunge at the turn of the year, sending petrol prices below £1 again during January. Regarding the currency exchange rate effect on CPI, the exact level of impact from sterling's past appreciation on inflation is still unknown. Plus the most recent depreciation of the pound, mostly against the US dollar, could offset those past rises, and their downward effect on inflation.
January 2016 UK CPI 0.3% vs 0.3% exp y/y UK PPI input Jan mm NSA -0.7% vs -1.2% exp
UK PPI input Jan mm NSA -0.7% vs -1.2% exp
Latest producer price index data now out
House Price Index Dec YY +6.7% vs +7.7% prev
Better than expected headline but the rest of it is soft still.
GBPUSD 1.4490 after dipping to 1.4465 on the as expected CPI data. I did warn about the buy rumour/sell fact in my preview
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UK wages and jobs data coming up at the bottom of the hour A quick heads up for UK data at 09.30 GMT that I've highlighted earlier today Sell any rallies still and trade what you see.
What more do you need from a preview?!
Check the order boards for levels to watch.
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GBP/USD slips lower after mixed U.K. data The pound slipped lower against the U.S. dollar on Friday, after the release of mixed economic reports from the U.K. and as investors continued to focus on discussions over Britain’s European Union membership
GBP/USD hit 1.4297 during European morning trade, the session low; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.4304, shedding 0.23%.
Cable was likely to find support at 1.4233, Wednesday’s low and resistance at 1.4517, Tuesday’s high.
The U.K. Office for National Statistics said that retail sales rose 2.3% in January, beating expectations for a 0.8% gain. Retail sales declined by 1.4% in December, whose figure was revised from a previously estimated 1.0% fall.
Year-on-year, retail sales climbed 5.2% last month, exceeding expectations for a 3.6% rise.
Core retail sales, which exclude automobiles and fuel, increased by 2.3% in January, compared to expectations for an uptick of 0.7%. Core retail sales slipped 1.3% in December, whose figure was revised from a previously estimated 0.9% decline.
A separate report showed that U.K. public sector net borrowing declined by £11.81 billion in January, confounding expectations for a drop of £13.95 billion. Public sector net borrowing rose by £7.49 billion in December, whose figure was revised from a previously estimated increase of £6.87 billion.
Sentiment on the pound remained fragile as discussions were set to continue on Friday in Brussels regarding Britain's European Union membership.
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Tighten up those pound trades as the Brexit trade gets punted into the weekend With news that the EU/UK talks are likely to roll on and on, pound traders have a decision to make
There's still time or a deal headline or two but it's getting late and the EU comments suggest that we won't get a deal today. That punts everything into the weekend and that's a risk for GBP traders.
Most of the press still believes a deal is coming but the market wants confirmation. If it comes over the weekend then we could have a gap open next week. Those of you sitting in positions that aren't long term need to have a think about whether you want to hold or cash in and mitigate that risk.
I'd put the risk of a gap either way at a max of 50-100 pips, maybe a bit more if it's a huge deal. At the end of the day the referendum is what counts but a deal here will go a long way to deciding the how big a mountain Dave will have to climb in persuading voters in the run up to it.
For now he's probably got one eye on a hot bath and a cold pint.
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GBP/USD forecast for the week of February 22, 2016 The GBP/USD pair fell significantly during the course of the week, testing the 1.42 level for support. Ultimately, the market looks as if it will continue to go lower but we may get a slight bounce in this general vicinity. Rallies at this point in time should be selling opportunities, as the British pound continues to soften in general. We believe that this market is heading down to the 1.40 level given enough time, and as a result remain very bearish overall and believe that the market will continue to favor the short-sellers.
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Sterling to fall below 1.40 on Brexit - ANZ Political uncertainty will push cable into a 1.35-1.40 range Sterling has come under heavy selling pressure as the debate on whether to remain in or leave the EU appears to be increasingly polarised, notes ANZ Bank.
"Some senior cabinet ministers, the Mayor of London and up to 150 of 330 Conservative MPs are reported to be in favour of leaving," ANZ adds.
"Political uncertainty, the UK's current account deficit and diminished expectations of rate rises are weighing on sterling," ANZ argues.
"As the political uncertainty over "Brexit" continues and the opinion polls ebb and flow, sterling will remain vulnerable. We maintain our view that sterling will fall into a 1.35-1.40 range vs USD near term," ANZ projects.
"Whilst EUR/GBP may be expected to trade with an upward bias, political developments in the UK may also weigh on sentiment towards EUR/USD. Much of the European press has been quite negative about the agreement the EU reached with the UK. In Germany, the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung argued that "if the UK leaves it could be a turning point that in the worst case could mark the beginning of the end for the European project." In Spain, El Pais argued that if the UK leaves the EU it could inflict great danger on the European project. Despite elections this year, the US looks politically safe near term and the USD may find support as a result," ANZ adds.
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GBP/USD: Cable Holds at 7-Year Low as Brexit Campaign Ramps Up
Increasing bets that Britain will leave the European Union (EU) after the June 23 referendum led the pound to its weakest since the global financial crisis on Monday.
The GBP/USD pair plunged as low as 1.4057 on Monday during London's trading session, the weakest since early 2009, before regaining some strength to trade at 1.4149 on Monday afternoon in New York, some 1.75% lower for the day.
British Prime Minister David Cameron announced last week that the 'Brexit' referendum would be held in just four months time, after which Britons would decide if they wanted "in" or "out" of the trading bloc.
London Mayor Boris Johnson's public support for the "Out" vote sparked a sharp sell off on the GBP/USD on Monday, with several other high-profile politicians soon joining in announcing their support for Britain to leave the EU.
"Boris is one of the few British politicians liked by the British public and is a significant coo for the “Out” campaign," CMC Markets analyst Jasper Lawler said in a note on Monday. "The odds of a Brexit has shifted a few percentage points with Boris on the “Out” side."
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