Euro Dollar Rate Forecasts for 2014-2015 - page 38
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Here they go with the parity talks again.
And then a break up us prepared
EUR/USD: En-Route To Re-Test 1.09 EUR/USD overnight reversal lower suggests that a revisit to key 1.0900 is possible in the near term,says UOB Group.
"We maintain neutral for now and will review when 1.0900 or 1.1100 is tested," UOB adds.
Dollar off highs amid caution ahead of U.S. payrolls report The dollar edged down on Thursday on caution ahead of this week's U.S. employment figures, pulling away from a three-month high against a basket of major currencies touched after Federal Reserve officials said a December "lift-off" in U.S. rates is possible.
The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against six major peers, was down about 0.1 percent at 97.874, after it rose to a three-month peak of 98.054 on Wednesday.
Economists expect the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report on Friday to show that U.S. employers have added 180,000 jobs last month, according to a Reuters poll.
"We're getting into the pre-payrolls positioning now, and the usual malaise ahead of that number," said Sue Trinh, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets in Hong Kong.
"Especially after the recent large moves as well, the market would be rather reluctant to be pushing too far ahead of that number," she said.
The dollar's overnight gains were made after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen laid out what now appears the base case at the U.S. central bank: that the country is ready for higher interest rates.
EUR/USD: Pair Near Daily Highs, Remains Under $1.09 The US dollar strengthened against most of the major pairs and the EUR/USD pair dropped below the $1.09 mark on Wednesday, as the greenback was boosted by solid US data and somewhat hawkish Fed speakers.
During Thursday's London session, the pair was seen correcting some of the losses and was hovering around $1.088, marginally higher on the day.
The US trade deficit narrowed to $40.8 billion, from $48.0 billion previously, which should be positive for Q3 GDP revisions in the near future.
The ADP employment report for October showed a 182,000 jobs gain, down from a revised 190,000 in September. Moreover, ISM's non-manufacturing PMI for October came out above market estimates, when it printed 59.1, while analysts had expected the figure to decline from 56.9 to 56.5.
"The slide below the 1.0900 area has now opened up the euro for a move back towards the May and July lows at 1.0820, having broken trend line support from the 1.0460 lows. A break through 1.0800 would increase the prospect of a move lower towards 1.0500. Any rebounds need to push back above the 1.1080 area," Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK, stated.
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USD: Asymmetric Response To Payrolls - Credit Agricole Ahead today the main focus will be on the US October payrolls report. The market is looking for a solid bounce back of 184k from the 142k level seen a month earlier. This is above the 3m run rate of 167k but still below the 6m trend of 199. CACIB is below consensus at 165k yet close to the 3m trend. The unemployment rate is seen dropping to 5.0% and forecasters call for a 2.3% annual rise in wage growth. All three numbers will be closely watched but keep in mind our estimates show that at full employment the break-even level for NFP is 124k.
This is the first of two payrolls releases ahead of the December Fed meeting so stakes are high.
We look for an asymmetric response from the USD so expect it to rally on a number in line or above expectations.
Given our read of the breakeven payroll level (124 +/- 30k margin of error), we suspect that 150k is still a good release. More importantly, it should be strong enough to keep a December hike in play