Eur/usd - page 340
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The euro registered a neutral trade against the dollar on Monday. The pair kept the higher values reached on Friday, while short-term indicators continue to support the positive momentum of the single currency. In this case can be expected breakout of the resistance at 1.1436. The new week started at 1.1361 and the session ended 4 pips below. Peak of the day was reached around noon at 1.1396.
Yesterday the EURUSD tried to rally fell but found yet gain enough selling pressure to reverse and close in the red near the low of the day with a narrow range, creating a small shooting star.
The key levels to watch are 1.1460 (Resistance), the 10-day moving average at 1.1286 (support) and 1.1237 (support).
EUR/USD: Euro Strong Ahead of US Indicators
Despite poor results in the latest ZEW survey and the fact that economic sentiment in the euro zone's biggest economy has reached its lowest level in 12 months, the euro remained mostly unchanged against the US dollar, posting highs of $1.1411 today and oscillating in a narrow range between $1.1360 and $1.1400 for the rest of the day.
German CPI for September remained at -0.2% month-on-month and the yearly figures showed no inflation, well below the European Central Bank's (ECB) proposed target of 2%. The poor results can be attributed to a number of factors, with recent weakening business sentiment on account of China, VW and more recently Deutsche Bank.
Despite the disappointing news from ZEW, the ECB is still not considering more easing measures, with only one third of the quantitative easing implemented thus far, and an impact may not necessarily be felt immediately on the euro, as there are still lag effects from the previous measures as noted by central bank policymaker Benoît Cœuré.
There are no major events in the US on Tuesday, though Wednesday will see the publication of three decisive releases - Retail Sales, Core Retail Sales and PPI. Any underperformance could result in large moves in EUR/USD.
The German economy has suffered recently from a heavy reliance on exports, a large percentage of which are bound for China. The Volkswagen emissions scandal also likely played a part in the muted ZEW figures, with one in six Germans employed in the automotive industry and Volkswagen announcing plans to cut costs by €1 billion a year as a result of the scandal. Add to this the recent news that Germany's biggest bank Deutsche Bank has posted losses of €6.2 billion and its clear why investors are worried that the slowdown in the Chinese economy, Volkswagen scandal and Deutsche bank losses could affect the rest of the euro zone and weaken the euro.
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EUR/USD is now at very important levels 1.1400 I will go bullish once a break over is confirmed.
EUR/USD is now at very important levels 1.1400 I will go bullish once a break over is confirmed.
That is probably the most important level now - but I think that there will be a couple of fake breakouts
EUR/USD reaches 3-week high, as investors weigh rate hike arguments
EUR/USD posted moderate gains on Tuesday to reach its highest level in more than three weeks, as currency traders continued to weigh whether the Federal Reserve could raise short-term interest rates at some point this year.
The currency pair traded in a tight range between 1.1344 and 1.1411 before settling at 1.1383, up 0.0024 or 0.20% on the session. At one point, the euro moved above 1.14 against the dollar for the first time since Sept. 18. EUR/USD has closed higher in three of the last four and six of the last nine sessions. Over the last month of trading, the euro is relatively flat against the dollar up by approximately 0.41% during that span.
EUR/USD likely gained support at 1.103, the low from Sept. 23 and was met with resistance at 1.146, the high from Sept. 18.
In a speech at the National Association for Business Economics annual conference on Tuesday morning, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis president James Bullard stood firm on his position that economic conditions nationwide are strong enough to allow the Federal Open Market Committee to approve an initial rate hike. While Bullard noted that liftoff is appropriate despite a litany of challenges, he emphasized that the challenges are not robust enough to guide policy decisions. In addition, Bullard argued that strict inflation targeting should not compel the Fed to hold rates at a zero-bound range, even if the U.S. central bank doesn't hit its 2% target in the near future.
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EUR/USD: Euro Boosted by China Concerns, Hits $1.14
The shared European currency extended its gains from Asia into European session on Wednesday, passing the $1.14 handle.
The euro traded 0.33% higher at $1.1417 on Wednesday morning.
Disappointing Chinese data drove another selloff in Asia today as Chinese CPI came in below expectations. The Chinese CPI rose 1.6% year-on-year in September, adding to concerns about deflation and the overall state of the world's second-largest economy.
Weak chinese data continues to weigh on investors sentiment while European data also adds more oil to the fire. German ZEW economic sentiment expectations hit a one-year low in the previous session on the back of concerns about the ripple out effect of the VW defeat device on the German economy over the remainder of this year.
As for the US economy, this week offers a lot of views from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials as to when the Fed might make a move on interest rates.
"We’ve heard comments from Fed vice chairman Stanley Fischer at the weekend, as well as FOMC members Lockhart and Bullard which would appear to be at pains to keep the option available, though Chicago Fed President Charles Evans has been consistent in stating his preference for a move sometime next year at the earliest," Michael Hewson from CMC Markets wrote on Wednesday.
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The euro recorded an increase against the dollar on Tuesday. The single currency justified the short-term expectations and resume the upward move from the end of last week. There is high probability for testing the resistance at 1.1436. Tuesday session started at 1.1357 and the bullish sentiment was most intense in the early hours. As a result, currencies reached a peak for the day at 1.1410. Subsequently followed a correction and the session finished at 1.1378.
Yesterday the EURUSD went back and forward with a wide range plus without any clear direction but managed to close in the green at the middle of the daily range.
The key levels to watch are 1.1460 (Resistance), the 10-day moving average at 1.1305 (support) and 1.1237 (support).
EUR/USD: Pair Prints New Daily Highs as US Retail Sales Disappoint
US retail sales for September ticked higher to 0.1% from the downwardly revised 0.0% month-on-month, while the control core gauge dropped from 0.2% to -0.1% and the ex auto subindex declined to -0.3% from -0.1% previously, the US Census Bureau informed market participants on Wednesday.
The dollar dropped somewhat after the release, pushing the pair to fresh intra day highs trading at $1.1440.
Of more importance will be Thursday's US inflation data and with Germany and the UK already falling back to deflation in September, the same is expected for the US.
The single currency was bid again on Wednesday and conquered the $1.14 mark amid risk-off trading, which supported the euro and the yen on currency markets and sent down European stock indices. The euro now tends to rise in times of turmoil on the financial markets as it has become a funding currency for Carry Trades, mainly due to zero interest rates in the euro zone.
"While we understand that the euro is deriving support from the change in flows due to the increased financial market volatility and due to easing Fed hike expectations, we believe the market is under-estimating the potential for ECB action," analysts at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi believe.
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