MP --- AINT LIFE GRAND, at least sometimes !
thnx for the questions and lemme answer both together in no intended order.
when I began posting years ago I will admit my style was a tad "flamboyant" but having been active in the motion picture and advertising world for so long, it was simply a part of my humor and fun approach ---- little did i realize how angry it would make the entrenched "guru's", who could not handle a newcomer who beat them so easily.
Back then, 350 pips a day was my aim, which has been thoroughly beaten at this point because of tremendous increases in equity which allow me to extend my daily open trades to, at this point, over 100 per day. What I do is find my upside and downside maximum and minimum points, set a hard trade at each (NOT a pending trade) and then set individual trades leading from the present price to each extreme, often at each and every single pip leading to the final TP. with that many trades on the board I have tremendous "wiggle" room to adjust as things change during the day, although simple observation of most of my predictions show the numbers dont really change much, even over 24 hours.
While the above description is "basically" what I do, MANY days the price will take a full circular move, coming right back to where it started and then continuing --- unfortunately, then, all of the upcoming TP points have already been taken out on the last "circle" and we have to start all over again, laying in TP points to be hit at least a second time (and often, the next day, the same points get hit yet again) ---- anyway, to maximize profits, I start trading at approx 8am edst and end up at approx 2am, edst (I do other things during the day, but never more than a few steps from a monitor in case things get silly). I have thought of my time spent as an "addiction", but since I can actually leave for a whole day and not have withdrawal anxieties, I have to figure I'm simply greedy !
While constantly accused of "selling something" it has never happened and never will because everything i have taught is simply "give back" for a phenominally wonderful life that led to an early forced retirement and that brought forth the desire to LEARN trading, no matter what the financial instrument is --- being retired, especially against my will, certainly did not stop my brain from wanting to continue to learn.
To this end, after close to 9 years or so, I've pretty much come up with the ability to both follow and PREDICT where the banks, market makers or floor traders will be moving the price, be it in stocks, forex, index trading, commodities or baseball cards ---- once learned, it becomes a game whose rewards are great both financially and knowing you BEAT the bank to the numbers and were WAITING for them, not the other way around.
The amount of pips I show is true and proveable on any day, week or month of the year, but I must admit I have that ability because my equity is at a VERY comfortable amount, grown over the years and accrued in the accounts --- without the amount I trade with, I would never be able to accomplish the profits.
Concerning the "join the dots" RED DOT, it shows you (with amazing accuracy) that THIS IS NOT THE FINAL MOVE --- THAT THIS POINT WILL BE BROKEN at another time, which depending on momentum and the timeframe you're working in, could be a matter of minutes or less and if the momentum is high, it could be the next day also --- and its simply not easy to tell how long. Normally you will see it when a price meets a resistance point, the pro's them short the currency down to support, bail and go long and the price then reverses back UP to BREAK thru that RED DOT POINT. If you have a "collection" of red dots (translation = MANY) and the price is either rising or falling from them, AT SOME TIME LATER IN THE DAY, perhaps the evening session, THOSE POINTS WILL BE BROKEN, but the one clue is with multiple dots, such as 5 or more, it will take a bit of time for the price to come back through --- a single dot can usually be taken out fairly quickly, but if you have multiple dots, prepare to wait a little bit if youre holding a TP point ABOVE those dots.
All of my teachings are over at "stockhideout.com" under the name "mp6140 forex and indexes school" although you have to register with stockhideout to even see that the school is there (which means i better start yelling about that to the mods(
anyway, thnx for the questions cause I post these predictions in many places and FEW are the ones who bother to ask questions, enjoying obviously the free cookies and profits, but then thats what i wrote about when i was complaining, isnt it ?
oh yeah, about the DAILY chart direction ---- presently showing bullish trend with UPSIDE moving to 4608 with 4639 showing IF IT BREAKS 4551. Should we reach the 4630 there "should" be a decent retrace to a possible 4210 and then we should head for 4697 where we should go bearish again into the 3900's
enjoy and trade well
with such a strategy as you have, and as far as your view of the full circular move- I'm sure that you have some type of market structure theorie or befief in what is actually determining the price of the given pair that your trading- my question for you is, was your strategy created with the thought of market equilibrium and rational expectaztions hypothesis, where price moves from one equilibrium to another? Have you ever expirenced any time that the cycle never completed- or never returned to it's previous equilibrium? Also, you say you trade from 8am est to 2am est,, did you mean 2pm est? Once again, thanks for your insight and experience that i consider to be borderline genius in your ability to share and post! one last question if you dont mind, and since no one else is asking- it appears that you would not use a stop loss in this strategy, because that would result in a loss before the cycle completes, and to do this you would need of course the correct lot size acording to your account.. the fact that you use a set lot size (1pip) tells me that you increase trade activivty instead of increasing the lot size.. this a newbie question, but because of new regs in us, i only place one trade at a time... and it is this way that i am now used to figuring out the correct trade size according to the account equity.. by having multiple posistions open at the same time, how do you control your margin level?
I'm afraid that I must state, in my opinion, there is NO theory concerning price movement thats worth a tinkers damn, but simply trading within known parameters by the banks (if i can tell you where the upside and downside lives, THEY are the ones creating it). Based completely on the time available to get from one point to another, with news thrown in to alter directions temporarily, the banks KNOW how long to spend trading and what style to use ---- for instance, we have all experienced the "dog days" of trading, where price seems to hang in one area for literally hours on end --- obviously, the banks feel NO need to move the price quickly because they already KNOW what is coming. Banks spend fortunes on analysts who can tell you, with or without "leaks", what the fed or the employment figures are going to be and they act on that information starting often days before. If the news is such that we would expect the price to move UP solidly, the banks spend a lot of time in prior days to the news release to SEND THE PRICE DOWN, so they have a lower point to go long with.
While during "boring" times during trading there will be a circular result, this is certainly not a "set in stone" rule, as it very often does NOT happen, and the price simply moves in one direction, "running" as it were ! Trading is not ONE manner of going about doing things, which is why only experience can prepare you for the many facets and moves the market makes --- just that once experienced, seeing what to a newb may appear "strange", immediately tells the experienced trader that "xyz something" may well be happening here, and while it may or may not happen, at least one is watching for it.
There is NO theory there, simply capitalism at work, trying for the best possible profit available and after all is said and done, thats the bottom line !
Also, you say you trade from 8am est to 2am est,, did you mean 2pm est?
The hours I spend trading do tend to vary, depending mostly on the momentum I see building or in existence before me -- I simply react to what the banks are doing and if they are (in my mind anyway) going to "get down and boggie" during the London session, I make it a habit to be awake for that, which is done by naps during the day or simply altering my work schedule from a "day" job to a "nite" job, but to answer your direct question, I meant i start normally at 8am on day one and finish at 2am on day two, sleep for a while and start over again.
Once again, thanks for your insight and experience that i consider to be borderline genius in your ability to share and post! (LOL -- thank you, but I've been measured as a genuine genius and not borderline, not that this is of any real assistance in this world except to allow me into MENSA where I meet rather plain looking women with enormous brains, quite the opposite to what i wish to be enormous !) one last question if you dont mind, and since no one else is asking- it appears that you would not use a stop loss in this strategy, because that would result in a loss before the cycle completes,
oooops --- please understand that we are speaking theoretically about a reality based situation --- You have no doubt seen lessons where the video showed you that what was yesterdays RESISTANCE area will become tomorrows SUPPORT area, and while this is very true, it doesnt mean it WILL happen tomorrow or even next week. If one is to think of what I said as a true circle, while it is real, that circle may not complete for a year or more ---- what I was intending more to say was that during some particularly slow periods, and this last friday was one, the same prices kept coming up, first as support, later as resistance and so forth --- the truth of what i teach and espouse is actually CHANNELS (top and bottom trend lines auto generated) and the rule of channels is that the price will move from one extreme (top) to the other extreme (bottom) if not ALWAYS, at least 99.9% of the time.
This action plays out better on the one or 5 minute chart where the activity can take a day of trading as opposed to the H4 which can take a week to complete its journey (sometimes more)
if you dont mind, and since no one else is asking- it appears that you would not use a stop loss in this strategy, because that would result in a loss before the cycle completes,
I dont normally like to answer your extremely observant question because in truth I DO NOT use a SL, which would have the exact effect you speak of, and even if the price did not come full circle (which it often does NOT do, btw) the sheer "whippiness" of the market would have me scattered and broken all over the place. Having said that, and impressing on my better students what stop losses create (LOSSES !) I DO NOT advise one proceed without them, but as you get far more proficient in your trading abilities, you will begin to let them become bigger and bigger and one day you simply stop using them, because they get in the way. That day may not come for years, but over time every single good trader stops using them and I ask you to remember that during regular intraday trading, I know of no single bank or liquidity provider who uses stop losses --- they use their brains and knowledge instead.
and to do this you would need of course the correct lot size acording to your account.. the fact that you use a set lot size (1pip) tells me that you increase trade activivty instead of increasing the lot size.. this a newbie question, but because of new regs in us, i only place one trade at a time... and it is this way that i am now used to figuring out the correct trade size according to the account equity.. by having multiple posistions open at the same time, how do you control your margin level?
ah, the new regs --- humbug !
Presently, and that will end soon unless I can immediately change country of residence and citizenship (or find something that satisfies that situation for the time being) I trade through switzerland, which allows me to hold both UP and DOWN trades at the same time, which i believe is what the gods of forex originally intended when they handed warren buffet the tablets !
Anyway, until my cohorts and I build our offshore country to trade from (its NOT that preposterous, btw as it can be a barge anchored 3 miles offshore and satellite linked, or one of the thousands of tiny islands for sale in Micro Nesia)
So the near term plans include trading TWO accounts through Citibank and using CONDITIONAL TRADES (ie: go long and TP at zyz and then automatically go short to zyx) which solve the problem of FIFO immediately and allow me to also use one account for longs and one for shorts.
Now with the old rules, every long position open would cancel the margin on every short position open, effectively making your margin ZERO even if you had 100 trades open as one long balanced out one short, but those were the good old days in the USA which "may" return, but I doubt it because the "new" regs favor the broker tremendously.
In fact, with the way the banks and liquidity providers (tier 2) are trading, I would imagine it almost impossible to make a profit using the new regulations, and so Citi alternative with 2 accounts is the ONLY USA legit method available.
BUT, like the days when decimilization hit the stock market, designed to destroy the "SOES bandits" who were the REAL scalpers, we were then forced to go to the Frankfurt exchange to work well. This time the USA has placed tremendous pressure on Europe, but there is ALWAYS A WAY, it just has to be found !
and to address the last open part of your question, I trade 6 lots at a time, but do not vary the lot amount, increasing or decreasing the trading activity as the market allows. I think you used the "one pip" remark remembering that I tend to place a trade at EACH one pip move as we head towards the final TP point, be it long or short
I know you probably dont get asked that too often, lol, so thanks allot for answering and so quickly also!!
well put, capitalism at work... it always intrigues me to understnd (try and understand) what is actually moving the price- I've read research papers by carol osler that suggest that the banks obtain asymetric information through cutomer order flow- the larger the banks, the better infrmation because they have the most customers order flow..
this "time available to get from one point to another" "the banks spend alot of time in prior days to the news release to send price down, so they have a lower point to go long with "
I have never heard this before, MP, but it does make sense to me.. because I have seen this on charts before! I will be studying this concept and learning more about it if i can. I'm expecting the eur.usd to come down anytime now, and I can see from the prior days that the banks spent a lot of time sending the price up.. I wonder what news it is they know that we dont't... bail out?
Im fairly new to trading , and i've just recently started to grasp the whole concept of trying to pick the upside/downside levels... one new idea that i thought of but have not been able to try yet,, is since gold, oil, and eur is usd denominated,, wouldn't the upside/downside levels occurr near or around the same time through correlation of usd?
do you use correlation of any sort for confirmation on these levels? hopefully i am not asking questions irrelevant to your trading... but i am very intrigued therefore full of questions that would drive anyone crazy, unlesss of course your intrigured by the same concepts..
the 2 citi accounts is very clever, I have been studying and trading just a bit over 2years now and not workins so i can learn,,, at this point i wish i could have just one account with citi, lol, but very useful information from you indeed, MP... a few other topics in your post i will have to analyze and think on before i can comment..
the "circular result, during boring times that is certainly not a "set in stone" rule",, i take this to be a consolidated region,, i think ,, well in your previous post you wrote "the ability to both follow and predict where the banks are moving price",, now I'm not sure,, but to me this could be the difference between breakout strategy and reversal strategy,, which is big difference, one is lagging, "follow"and late (breakout) and one is predictive (reversal) to me this is what that meant,, but I could be wrong (most likely am lol)
well put, capitalism at work... it always intrigues me to understnd (try and understand) what is actually moving the price- I've read research papers by carol osler that suggest that the banks obtain asymetric information through cutomer order flow- the larger the banks, the better infrmation because they have the most customers order flow.. The inner workings of the forex market are fairly straightforward and described in much detail as long as you avoid THEORY --- there is a very legitimate reason behind the market, which of course has to do with companies buying and selling goods in many countries and the needs to work in many currencies, but that you can google easily (but PLEASE, stay away from theory as currency exchange has been around a very long time and the underlying reasons are very well documented. THEORY is a wonderful exercise in a college classroom but bears small credence in real life situations.
I have never heard this before, MP, but it does make sense to me.. because I have seen this on charts before! I will be studying this concept and learning more about it if i can. I'm expecting the eur.usd to come down anytime now, and I can see from the prior days that the banks spent a lot of time sending the price up.. I wonder what news it is they know that we dont't... bail out? The banks spend a lot of time both raising AND lowering the price and while we still have some upside to complete on EU, the price WILL DROP YET AGAIN (in fact, in previous posts of mine on this and other boards, I give the price it should get to, simply because its the way the whole mess works.
Im fairly new to trading , and i've just recently started to grasp the whole concept of trying to pick the upside/downside levels... one new idea that i thought of but have not been able to try yet,, is since gold, oil, and eur is usd denominated,, wouldn't the upside/downside levels occurr near or around the same time through correlation of usd? Sometimes they do and sometimes they dont --- an old saw that proves fairly consistent, but not written in stone, is that UJ will move almost exactly opposite to EU, and ive touted it as a mini baby hedge fund move, trading both of them as opposites ---- Unfortunately, one cannot simply assume this to be a "forever" thing, as there are times they almost move in lockstep in the same direction, but "on average", the suggestion (if not rule) tends to work well as the financial markets are extremely interconnected amongst all the trading instruments available --- one goes up while another goes down and they all tend to either reach a bottom or top at "approximately" the same time. (btw, GU is ahead of EU and will be heading down by next week, with a low of at least 6006 and probably a final, when all is said and done and the dust clears in a few weeks, of 5871 to 5819 ---- UJ is heading for 80.9921 which should provide some resistance and a possible short reversal, and ending at 82.4141 before it turns back south to 78.5642 while our darling EU is heading for MASS resistance in the 4585 to 4608 area and straining to reach 4669 and 4697
as for the various trading instruments reaching decisive points at approx the same time, this tends to be true --- EU "used" to move 180 degrees opposite the DOW, but now moves according to the US DOLLAR INDEX, in an opposite direction to the index movement, of course.
Correlation -- lets see . . . . . . . . . . it being really a "statistical theory" word, I do not use it in the manner you mean because Forex IS NOT RANDOM (a prime part of correlation in the statistical world), although I do use indicators that give me a decent idea of how much movement is left and where the top or bottom may lie, so in this way I have a form of "correlation" between horizontal indicators and vertical candles and price movement, (you can use an indicator to estimate the remaining move available, such as if you have 50 percent of an indicators UPSIDE movement remaining, you can measure your chart price direction and action and look to see where a strong resistance may live, 50% higher --- dont laugh, cause it works VERY well. (I measure with a pencil, from bottom of a move to where it presently is, then look at the indicator to see how far in percentages it has moved --- it then becomes VERY simple to predict, since i have most all support and resistance areas on my chart, where the price is heading and when you get really good, which im working on, you can even see the retraces along the way and judge them also. The ONLY real difficulty lies in judging TIME, as news can speed up or slow down the movement tremendously.
the 2 citi accounts is very clever, I have been studying and trading just a bit over 2years now and not workins so i can learn,,, at this point i wish i could have just one account with citi, lol, but very useful information from you indeed, MP... a few other topics in your post i will have to analyze and think on before i can comment.. Why can you not have one account with Citi --- is it equity and if it IS, then immediately destroy your present demo and get one that has NO MORE EQUITY originally than you will actually be using in real trading === to provide yourself with far more equity (therefore far more margin than you will really have) is the worst thing you can do to yourself as it creates a false impression of your trading abilities. A few years ago I opened a $500 demo and in one year increased the equity to $10K (actually a bit more but 10 was my goal) ---- NOW, i need to have a $2000 demo account to make the same progress, essentially because of the new regs, but more because of the way trading is now being done, which is designed to STOP YOU OUT AND CLOSE YOUR ACCOUNT (sorry, thats how the banks are now trading, which throws the small retail trader for a total loop.
Please understand that along with the word "theory" the word "strategy" tends to grate on my nerves also. A price is either going to go up or its going to go down, and often it simply doesnt go anywhere for a while and while "strategy" sounds neat, any form of consolidation, and especially the type Im posting, will "breakout" of its range at some time and all one needs to know is that IT WILL HAPPEN and place a trade presupposing the concept. Im posting a chart which certainly looks like consolidation except for ONE small problem ---- each time the price moves from bottom to top, it INCREASES which is the classic illustration of rising prices (HIGHER tops and bottoms). Now, its doing it SO SLOWLY that you may not even notice, but unlike true consolidation, this is simply moving the price higher while enjoying MASSIVE scalping and short range trading abilities EXTREMELY SLOWLY --- take a look and i think you will agree. I am not showing the indicators attached to the chart cause they would simply make your head go round in directions you might not be able to control easily --- my use of indicators has to be approached slowly and absorbed one by one because, as i stated, I do NOT use indicators in any way similar to others usage, but more as a guideline to tell me i am on the right track and to show me how long that track will probably exist before i fall off the cliff at the end.
btw, the chart I send is also cleared of all the s+r gobbledygook that exists on my charts and simply shows the movement of the channels and how the whole process works in my mind --- hopefully a picture is worth a thousand words, cause Im getting tired of typing --- just notice the VERY SLOWLY rising prices or as is said, HIGHER HIGHS .
enjoy and trade well --- it takes time for the mind to assimilate the information, BUT the mind will, over time, like anything else new
I am currently looking for someone to manage my funds for me. However, since this strategy here doesn't use a stoploss, I will need an EA made. Can you please make me an EA with this strategy but put in option for a stoploss. I just can't have any of my funds managed for me with out the use of a stop loss, I am not saying that your strategy is bad, Im just saying an EA would be better and probably make more money too.
thanks in advance
MP -- now they will come out of the woodwork ~
FIRST AND FOREMOST, why do you peeps hide behind a nom de plume, or as we call it now -- an alias, when you start to attack me --- why cant you simply identify yourself and state your case --- if you want to question me in truth and for information, I have NO argument with that but if you simply wish to attack, with NOTHING behind it but perhaps a few beers, why even bother because I will reduce you to brainless mush in minutes !!!
Obviously youre looking for a robot, not a person, to manage your funds for you, which is certainly a very difficult operation in this world at the present time ---- perhaps you can find one down in a hanger in Rosewell, along with the alien to operate it --- GOOD LUCK !
AHHHHH PHOEY -- I cant let this go by without some comment so I shall take the bait so poorly offered ---- an EA is capable of allowing the lazy, the dilletante and the foolish to enjoy trading while learning NOTHING and doing NOTHING and is why so many look for them, but even with the great contests for EA's every year, the winners are always "special purpose" EA's designed to follow ONE set of rules and then the currency pair that it trades is chosen because it FITS into that rule. (examine the past years winners and you shall see why they won over the more "general" robots.)
Once a robot is locked on to a specific set of parameters, it does not have to sleep, eat or perform any normal human biological functions and therefore can "perform" wonderfully, free of the need for a mcdonalds or some fries.
On the other hand, perhaps I am the ULTIMATE EA/TRANSFORMER/CROSSOVER TRADER/ALIEN/ROBOT/THINGIE, capable of producing 21 thousand pips in a week, using highly antiquated manual methods, although the programming community hates me for the fact that I DO sleep and I DO EAT (and rather well at that, by golly )
EVERYONE dreams of a piece of software that will make them rich --- its completely human, going back to amulets to ward off the evil spirits or to bring forth the good, bracelets, the fountain of youth, warclubs and swords that would protect and make invincible their owners, turning base metal into gold, water into wine, a fountain of youth or ANY of the wonderous things the human mind could wish for, and now, with computers, we wish to lie back, eat our bon bons and have a computer turn AIR into MONEY, a feat so tremendous that even the most foresighted alchemist NEVER dreamed of its possibility !
Heck, I was on this site years ago and listened to the same old same old ----- WHERE IS THE GREAT EA THAT WILL REPLACE EVERY HUMAN TRADER, allowing the great financial houses to eliminate entire staffs of humans, saving on bonuses, health plans and salaries (which sure would impact unemployment by golly and have the unintended consequence of destroying the financial world as we know it, forever ??????? (OH, no one has given THAT a thought, have they ?????)
Since my being here last, my daily average has gone from 350 pips a day to 21 thousand a week --- WHAT HAVE YOUR EA's DONE TO KEEP UP WITH MY VERY SIMPLE MIND and frail old hands that click a mouse ???? Years later and you peeps havent moved ONE INCH IN YOUR PURSUIT OF TURNING LEAD INTO GOLD, WATER INTO WINE, FINDING THE POT OF GOLD or turning NOTHING INTO RICHES --- and I'm chugging along like a bullet train, increasing equity and making a lot of so called "guru's" look danged silly.IM STILL WAITING, MANY YEARS LATER, FOR ALL YOUR EA'S TO SIMPLY CATCH UP WITH ME, a simple little manual trader type guy !!!!
with all the effort that you peeps spends on your alchemistic routines of trying to build an EA that works UNDER ALL CONDITIONS LIKE THE HUMAN MIND, one could simply LEARN to trade and make a fortune and forget the silliness !
enjoy and trade well MANUALLY
enjoy and trade well poop
Mp -- sunday, 07.03.2011
WHAT A DARN SHAME SO MANY OF YOU REFUSE TO TRADE ON SUNDAY CAUSE ITS GREAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAT !!!
upside figures unchanged since last post
although we should expect a "go down", momentum is very high, especially for a sunday and i think the powers that be want to get this price up to its high in preparation for a DECENT downside move, as predicted many many times
present downside shows 4531 bottom which could become the deep downside move
4538 NEW DOWNSIDE ON 5 MIN CHART
WE WILL GO BACK UP
PRESENT DAILY CHART TOPPING AT 4631
842pm, edst PRESENT SHORT TERM TREND CHART TOPPING AT 4586 with probable reverse to 4538
Mp -- 7.3.2011
A gentle evening by the fire, pipe aglow and the Iver sisters sitting and enjoying their new fashions --- a bucolic feeling pervades as we casually watch the price rising, true to what we felt about it for so long and can only repeat the simple mantra learned at my fathers knee ----
COME ON YOU SOB --- GET UP THERE AND LETS MAKE SOME REAL MONEY !!!!!!!!
dont forget monday is a bank holiday here in the USA, but ----------
Mp -- 7.4.2011 --- overnites and tomorrows
MY PRESENT RANGE ----
UPSIDE ---- 4574
SHORT TERM TREND CHART
DOWNSIDE ----------------- 4557, 4552, 4537, 4531, 4527 and a possible 4505 (PIVOT)
UPSIDE -------------------- 4580, 4584,
BLACK BOX TRADING
UPSIDE -------------------- 4555 (one minute), 4563 (5 min), 4601 (15 min), 4600 (30 min), 4601 ( 60 min), 5093 (H4)
DOWNSIDE ----------------- 4550 (one minute), 4551 (5 min), 4558 (15 min), 4491(30 min), 4496 (60 min), 4478, 4333 (H4)