Mp --- eu -- intermediate and long range - page 5
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MP -- 7.8.2011 --- morning madness
407 AM, edst
PRESENT DOWNSIDE SHOWING 4251 SECURE and a possible 4218
752 am, edst -- all the news thats fit to trade coming to your neighborhood in about half an hour --- ARE YOU TRADER ENOUGH ??
Mp --- there's always a storm after the calm
Presently, believe we will see UPSIDE move to 4278 - 4284 area coming week and DOWNSIDE TO 4219 --- REMEMBER that 4141 is due, although we should have "speed bumps" at 4219 when reached, 4199 and 4186 which should reverse UP scaring the living bejesus out of everyone before it then heads to 4159 where more reversal surprises await and finally down to 4141. 4075 is sitting down there smiling, but we have a bit before that one happens.
THOSE of you who miss Sunday miss a whole lot of fun by golly --- 1000 pips for half a days work has become commonplace and thats just a little too much for me to give away, especially as I can watch a movie on a spare monitor at the same time.
enjoy and trade well
mp
MP -- question for y'all PART 2
As I stated above, since Sept of 2010 the banks, brokers, pros and whatever extraterrestrial aliens the CFTC allows out there have been trading in a rather "whippy" and seemingly random manner, but the reality is that it is perfectly understandable (although not always predictable when sitting back with a double latte cappachino deluxe at your desk --- it becomes much easier when you are actually looking at a 30 second, one minute, 5 minute, 9 minute, 15 minute and 60 minute chart laid out in front of you while trading --- of course you had also better have looked at the H4 to give yourself an idea of where the market is heading in both its major and minor trends)
UNLESS the price activity is driven by tremendous momentum, such as just released news or a particular country's time for trading is ending (and things tend to move in a pretty well determined manner and VERY fast at that point) the present methods are to MAKE HASTE SLOWLY ---- if the price is moving UP on its trend, it will move up to a particular resistance area and then drop to a particular support area ----- in this case each UP AND DOWN MOVE within a timeframe will result in the oldest expression in the trading world --- the price is MAKING HIGHER HIGHS AND HIGHER LOWS which simply means that with each COMPLETED DIP AND RISE, each of the tops made by these rises IS GOING UP and the bottom support rises along with the top.
Essentially, unless the price activity is being momentum driven and moving fast, and its pretty simple to see that when its happening, the price moves as per the attached chart (same one i used a few days ago --- hey, why not ?)
Now the newbs have placed stop losses along the way but where they were taught to place these losses is constantly invaded by those opposing your trades (although I have always maintained that there is NO ONE really opposing YOUR trade, but simply opposite trades that dont even know yours exists --- "ZERO SUM" to me simply means being out of equity, because only the most philosophical of newbs think of this as warfare) But anyway, youve got these fine stop losses out there and WHAM since you went long on the downside move of the "wave" (NO, i dont follow wave theory, but the danged up and down chart LOOKS like a wave) your stop loss becomes a TRADE LOSER and 3 minutes later, after the downside move has ended and the long side started, you see you would have been in profit if YOU HAD JUST LEFT DANGED WELL ALONE !
ONE of the ways you can estimate if your trade will become good or not is to look at a higher timeframe chart ---- given the trend and price direction that day, is YOUR TRADE WITHIN THE UP OR DOWNSIDE LIMITS OF THAT TIMEFRAME, and therefore will it become a good trade in a few minutes or hours ?
All the "psychology of trading" wont do you a tinkers damn if you cant figure that ONE question out and to figure out that question requires experience that is based on fact.
You get that experience through an awful lot of "on job training" and its best done by shelving your ego and understanding that OLDER TRADERS KNOW MORE (assuming, of course, that they grew older while trading and not selling hot dogs)
GURU's are great but TEACHERS ARE TREMENDOUS and you had best spend more time finding one than diddling around with a 50K demo account for a week on your own and then announcing to the world your readiness to take on the best there is !
I no longer teach newbs because of the utter frustration of kindergarten classes, and I really no longer teach but a VERY VERY few at the intermediate and expert levels either, but there are those out there who do --- LOOK at their results that are published, see if they qualify every "prediction" with a "if this happens" or if "that roundheaded breakalong differing topside indicator" appears frequently in their postings ---- .ALL of us have to "reach into the air" often for an answer, and naturally qualify with a "if it breaks this line" because THATS IN THE FUTURE and almost impossible to tell over that double Latte but if your future instructor refers to a lot of "if this happens" and shies away from being VERY specific, if only in the short term, then they aint exactly where you want them to be.
FIND YOUR INSTRUCTOR AND CLING LIKE a debutante who has just found a rich "PRINCE about to become KING" to marry ---
I have a few "better students" left from my more general days of teaching, but if any new student comes along, and I think there is something worth teaching there, WE MEET FACE TO FACE and i can look into your eyes to see if you have the true desire to stick it out ---- often referred to as FIRE IN THE BELLY !
The trick to getting ANY person of worth to TEACH you is one of those difficult to define but very obvious traits the student will use. Back a while I was in a career that was IMPOSSIBLE TO ENTER --- absolutely IMPOSSIBLE TO BREAK INTO because of deeply developed "family" relationships, tightly controlled Union regulations and the desire, of those working within that industry, not to "water down the talent pool" who received incomes second only to the financial world (yeah, and see if you can get into that one also --- LOL !)
BUT EVERY YEAR A FEW "OUTSIDERS" MADE IT IN because of that "fire" and could not be stopped, growing their knowledge at the feet of their teachers at a phenominal rate !
YOU MUST LEARN and with that knowledge comes UNDERSTANDING, and this process is not a "wham, bam, thank you ma'am" procedure, but one of the most intense study and then demo'ing to see if you REALLY understand what has been taught, and its a process repeated OVER AND OVER AND OVER and thats just on the demo, cause your first 100 trades with REAL MONEY now introduces a new phenomenon ---- ABJECT FEAR of losing the family jewels (and I dont mean them jewels)
Its TIME boys and girls and accepted aliens, that will get you through that particular speedbump (or wall to many) and NOTHING IN THIS UNIVERSE is gonna change it -- you simply have to see that, win or lose, you're still alive and will live to fight another day. (although a good teacher will speed it up by a number of years)
Look carefully at yourself in a mirror --- are you a dillatante or a debutante --- do you just wish to increase your school loan or does the fire burn so hotly within that you will sell your soul (thats a joke peeps) ---- DO YOU WANT IT MORE THAN ANYTHING ELSE OUT THERE cause THATS what is needed, cause NO EA, NO SYSTEM, NOT EVEN FREE TP POINTS will get you there unless you BRING YOURSELF THERE !
95 percent lose every year (according to statistics anyway) and only 5% remain --- after 4 years, whats left of even that 5% ?
BUT OH MY, IF YOU ARE HERE IN 4 YEARS, THEY NOW CALL YOU SIR/MA'AM and open doors for you (of course they have their hands out, but you also have the ability to easily put something INTO that hand !
there aint nothing better to my way of thinking, although the money has long ago taken a back seat in my life, but the sheer excitement of being RIGHT all during the day is the greatest reward in the world and well worth the hell it took to get here !
Your dog may snarl when you enter your house, your wife may be having an affair with the mongoloid who lives down the street and your kids may point at you and laugh in front of their friends, BUT WHEN YOU SIT DOWN to your workstation, casually look over todays charts, smile and press that first trade button and BINGO, set off a full day of slot machine jackpots at Vegas every few minutes, NONE of the world exists around you as you are a "master of the universe and the time/space continuum"
If you got better out there, PLEASE tell me about it --- I learn quickly !
enjoy and trade well
BTW, when you look at the chart IGNORE the wicks on the candles --- they DO signify future prices to those who understand their usage, but also cause untold grief to those who dont.
MP -- 7.10.2011 --- thoughts
- Today, 10:17 AM
THIS POST IS A "WORK IN PROGRESS" and should be completed at least by tonite --- for short term trades on Sunday, remember once again that sunday is the second part of friday and we trade accordingly (normally anyway, if there is a "normal" here) therefore :
heading to the temporary topside tonite, 4270 is a speedbump that should reverse us down to 4249 when the dust clears later tonite (take profits at 4252 though ----- 4219 shows BELOW and is very do--able !
PRESENT MONTHLY CHART shows UPSIDE continuance to 4908 as short range UPSIDE goal with but a bit more downside coming to make the case more interesting and give us more upside payoff. We have sincere resistance for this upside trip (which should take close to a year) at 4908, 5039, 5807 and topping in the 6987 area ---- for those who REALLY like to buy and hold, those figures WILL HAPPEN, but try not to hold your breath that long.
SHIFTING over to the DAILY CHART, which at least most of us can accomplish in our lifetimes without leaving the trade to our grandchildren, we find that a double bottom was created by TWO positions (duhhhhh) which happened in January of 09 and July of 2010, leading to the present run up heading to 6004.
5109 is the PRESENT respected resistance level on the DAILY but of course nothing is ever THAT simple in the life of a trader and we are presently moving DOWN (in an uptrend by golly) to hit 4166
MP -- 7.10.2011 - evening trades
954 pm, edst
present normal trend chart
downside -------------------- 4209, 4187, 4176, 4162
upside ----------------------- 4255
Mp -- 7.11.2011 -- overnites and tomorrows
BLACK BOX TRADING
DOWNSIDE ------------------------ 4181 (1 min), 4157 (5 min), 4165 (15 min), 4165 (30 min), 3783 (60 min), 3789 (H4) this is one of those times it gives a really strange number and the DAILY is only showing 4144, but on the other hand, this was predicted a while back --- I WILL NOT ASK ANYONE TO BELIEVE IT, AT LEAST NOT SUPER QUICKLY, BUT . . . . . . .
UPSIDE ---------------------------- 4253, 4277 (pivot)
we shall see what we shall see by golly but this is a quandry, or as the King said to Anna ---- "tis a puzzlement"
Mp -- 7.11.2011 -- morning becomes
1055am edst ----3969, 3960 showing and all other charts dropping like flies --- 3912 showing and daily heading for 3906 presently but very near TEMPORARY bottom
454am, edst
AND ITS BLOODY SOMETHING
PRESENT SHORT TERM TREND CHART SHOWS 4065, 4022 and dropping
UPSIDE ------------------------- 4180 and holding, but should drop with price
3998 very possible but we should bottom first, go up and then return to that point
Mp -- 7.11.2011 -- evening update
1011pm, edst
DOWNSIDE SHOWING 3918, 3892, 3832
UPSIDE ---------------- 3972 - 3984 but 40009 and 4029 lie above and certainly reachable
Mp -- early overnites and tomorrows
1130 PM, EDST --- tad bit early for this and I may well edit it later if significant changes take place
BLACK BOX TRADES
DOWNSIDE ------------------ 3960 (one min), 3902 (5 min), 3901 (15 min), 2913 (30 min and seems a bit much at this moment), 3992 (H1), 3264 (H4 --- now THATS interesting !)
UPSIDE --------------------- 4006, 4027, 4029, 4032(5 min), 4122 (15 min) 4173 if we break 4150 to the upside,
I wouldnt extend too far on the LONG side --- an awfully lot of downside momo and sheer pressure