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first, let the newbs understand that there are two schools of thought on this idea, and as Chunnel states, it can give you a BASIC idea of how something performs.
BUT --- NO amount of backtesting in the world would have prepared any system or EA for the way the market is working NOW (since summer).
While Im now down from my normal 350 pips a day to an average of 250 (some days are better, of course) my BEING IN THE MARKET which is the same as FORWARD TESTING has shown WHAT must be done to trade these NEW markets.
but to repeat, NO AMOUNT OF BACKTESTING IN THE WORLD could prepare a system or EA for what is presently happening in the market
so while in more normal times I could agree with your concept of "basic idea", that concept has been blown off the face of the earth at this time.
enjoy and trade well
mpVerry well said!
MP -- a conversation between friends over Cognac
A short conversation with my very old friend, Don Jose Della Vega Florencia Vargas --- a man of the people and loved by his neighbors and the peons who have worked his vineyards and cattle farms for years.
Senior Vargas became interested in Forex a while back simply because he could not believe the absolutely unabashed manner in which i pursued and spoke about what is considered to be so SACRED amongst so many, and putting aside his winery and cattle to his daughters for a bit, decided to learn yet another craft to add to his many !
SO FOLLOWS A SHORT CONVERSATION WE HAD - - - - - - -
vargas (12/11/2009 5:16:10 PM): so what triggered the free fall...? Did bernanke promise ever investor a holiday turkey gift wrapped from the fed?
mp6140 (12/11/2009 5:17:15 PM): "theoretically" was good news for the dollar
vargas (12/11/2009 5:17:23 PM): i see some news sitting about that time
vargas (12/11/2009 5:17:24 PM): yup
mp6140 (12/11/2009 5:18:03 PM): its highly fashionable to put down the euro these days --- cnbc is starting to yak it up a lot
mp6140 (12/11/2009 5:18:23 PM): which means when they get EVERYONE into the dollar, it reverses
vargas (12/11/2009 5:18:31 PM): i c
vargas (12/11/2009 5:18:45 PM): well the producers will give em a different script soon enough
mp6140 (12/11/2009 5:19:27 PM): but of course -- perhaps as early as monday
mp6140 (12/11/2009 5:20:04 PM): i have to admit, its so hard to have cocktail party conversations with those not in the "biz"
mp6140 (12/11/2009 5:20:16 PM): cause they normal, and im just a jaded old coot
vargas(12/11/2009 5:20:22 PM): yeah well i would dearly love to see a 500 pip bullish surge in the e/u....asssuming im smart enough to take part in it
vargas (12/11/2009 5:20:27 PM): indeed my freind
mp6140 (12/11/2009 5:21:13 PM): someone once told me that the stock market had a great function
mp6140 (12/11/2009 5:21:28 PM): that it existed to give small companies money to get started
mp6140 (12/11/2009 5:22:11 PM): i gently agreed that perhaps 100 or so times a year that may indeed be true, although the money could just as easily come from a bank and the firm remain private
mp6140 (12/11/2009 5:22:53 PM): of course the thousands of people who work wall street are needed to support these 100 companies -- obviously the work load must be tremendous.
vargas (12/11/2009 5:23:08 PM): true and interesting thought
mp6140 (12/11/2009 5:23:22 PM): and with an average salary of 300K for the middle class employee, its obvious that the service pays well
vargas (12/11/2009 5:23:43 PM): seemingly
mp6140 (12/11/2009 5:24:06 PM): so then i pointed out that once the market was the venue of the VERY RICH, so they could bet on things without rubbing shoulders with SMALL and lower class crooks -- i remember when a single trade was $200, just for the trade
mp6140 (12/11/2009 5:24:27 PM): and NOW, its the venue of every tom, dick and harry to place their bets
mp6140 (12/11/2009 5:24:44 PM): which is why there are thousands of people employed by the market making oodles of money
mp6140 (12/11/2009 5:24:52 PM): i did not spend a lot of time telling him why his 401K was now a 201K, but he began to get the idea.
vargas (12/11/2009 5:25:53 PM): hmm...wonder how long it continues in its current course
mp6140 (12/11/2009 5:26:00 PM): or as said by some famous somebody once
mp6140 (12/11/2009 5:26:06 PM): THE MASSES ARE ASSES
vargas(12/11/2009 5:26:16 PM): and usually wrong
mp6140 (12/11/2009 5:26:31 PM): depends on what you mean by "current course"
mp6140 (12/11/2009 5:26:43 PM): temporary trend usually lasts into january
vargas (12/11/2009 5:27:18 PM): well i know next to nothing about the stock market.....i'm just your normal everyday lord of the manor, trying to carve out a atom sized portion of the fx world.
mp6140 (12/11/2009 5:28:15 PM): one, and certainly not all, the reasons why i get into such debate with forex "gurus" is because forex is not something that lives on a tropical island and exists all by itself
mp6140 (12/11/2009 5:28:28 PM): every single phase of the "market" is intertwined
mp6140 (12/11/2009 5:28:55 PM): dow goes up, forex goes down, gold goes up, metals follow and dollar goes down
vargas (12/11/2009 5:29:07 PM): most excellent point
mp6140 (12/11/2009 5:29:19 PM): bonds go up and equities go down and dollar goes up and gold goes down and oil goes up
vargas (12/11/2009 5:29:40 PM): i suppose thats why the "average" peoples try to take the fundamental angle to trading at least in part
vargas (12/11/2009 5:30:11 PM): personally i can't see much beyond the candlestick on my monitor
mp6140 (12/11/2009 5:30:22 PM): we happen to TRADE forex, but forex is just ONE single thing in the sea of financial instruments
vargas(12/11/2009 5:30:59 PM): oh yeah that makes sense and i understand that but since i don't know how they interconnected i pretty much ignore the other instruments
vargas (12/11/2009 5:31:17 PM): and hopefully it will all make some sense in the coming years
mp6140 (12/11/2009 5:31:19 PM): its always nice to gander at what the rest of the world is doing as it does provide some short term guidance to forex
vargas (12/11/2009 5:31:23 PM): as i start to understand a bit more
mp6140 (12/11/2009 5:31:33 PM): it makes it easier to see if you going up or down that day
mp6140 (12/11/2009 5:31:41 PM): thats what fair value is all about
vargas(12/11/2009 5:31:45 PM): cant' argue with that.
vargas (12/11/2009 5:31:58 PM): indeed senior....i read that article...
mp6140 (12/11/2009 5:33:04 PM): fair value and the dow will move faster than forex, being based on a MUCH shorter day, so taking a clue from the dow as the day progresses will tell you where the dollar is tending to go
mp6140 (12/11/2009 5:33:14 PM): for instance
mp6140 (12/11/2009 5:33:51 PM): if the dow is up and eu is heading towards the pivot, you can pretty safely assume it will hit and break down through the pivot, so your shorts will be stronger that day
mp6140 (12/11/2009 5:34:25 PM): the fair value takes all the overnite action and compresses it into ONE number
mp6140 (12/11/2009 5:34:45 PM): that number will at least tell you where forex is heading in the morning and what direction it will DEFINITELY take when the stock market opens in the USA.
vargas (12/11/2009 5:34:46 PM): makes sense....these are the kind of things that i need to get more tuned into.
mp6140 (12/11/2009 5:35:03 PM): forex does not exist in a bubble
vargas (12/11/2009 5:35:12 PM): the only thing i really look at is the fair value reading....
vargas(12/11/2009 5:35:23 PM): no it a great point i will spend the weekend pondering
mp6140 (12/11/2009 5:36:02 PM): and im about to post our conversation as a regular post, cause it was a flash of brilliance in a dark and cloudy sky
mp6140 (12/11/2009 5:36:12 PM): like the sun coming out behind a tornado
mp6140 (12/11/2009 5:36:25 PM): the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow
vargas (12/11/2009 5:36:28 PM): Senior, you are waxing poetic as does my loyal friend, Pancho
vargas(12/11/2009 5:38:06 PM): but i encourage you pursue this thought...catch it ...bind it up....kill it ....fry it and then present it to the SHO'ers
mp6140 (12/11/2009 5:38:25 PM): i believe I shall do just so, Senior Don Jose Della Vega Florencia Vargas---- to you, your most ravishing wife and your many intelligent daughters, I thank you for this conversation and remind you to be very careful of the "family tradition"
MP -- currenesee.com
Presently having a little conversation concerning a forex social networking site that promises to put you in contact with like minded (or totally different minded) traders, where you can exchange ideas, concepts etc.
only problem i found was the overwhelming majority of the traders were calling currency pairs WRONGLY but more importantly, the SITE IS ALIGNED WITH 100 BROKERS AND THE NFA ! Now, I aint never seen a site aligned with the NFA before, except their own propaganda mill and that got my feathers in a ruffle --- see what ya'll think !
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certainly an interesting concept, ASSUMING - - - - - - -
i hoped over there all excited, figuring i could stop teaching and make oodles more money and noticed that 80% of their members are SHORT AUD/CHF which so far has been an excellent LONG trade run up and has more room to go.
So i would love to know it by SHORT, they are simply referring to the present retrace or do they believe we are indeed going short since i see daily resist at 94509 before any sizeable retrace (on the daily, of course)
now there is a small downside move that took place when the last high was hit, but it sure dont look like a whole big deal
anyone REALLY a member so i can satisfy my curiosities ?
and i just noticed they are a MEMBER of the NFA ---- THAT is REALLY interesting as ive never yet seen an independent site that is ALIGNED with THOSE PEOPLE.
Perhaps the NFA wants to find MORE things they can outlaw by following traders real time thoughts ? (and YES, with those people, im paranoid)
mp
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MP -- its kinda a poll, but more a "post in", which is similar to a "love in" but sans herbs !
well, one day after reading about currensee's prediction of short the audchf, the sucker is moving up as it has been, true to what i thought (hey, even i gotta get one right every now and again)
its heading towards its top and THEN should become a short, but so far currensee's people dont impress me much.
NOW --- and i KNOW Im paranoid (which of course brings up the old saw --- "just cause youre paranoid doesnt mean they aint after you !") BUT WHY IS A SITE LIKE THIS ALIGNED WITH 100 BROKERS AND THE NFA ?????
I put this out as a fair question of which I hold only ONE thought --- a "social" network for retail traders gives them the best darn access to a cross section of traders that has ever been invented and I DONT LIKE THE NFA to be fed information that can be used against us, as they so much seem to enjoy !
I would love to hear from others on this subject, cause you all know where i stand with "them" so im biased --- LETS HEAR FROM SOME LEVEL HEADED THINKING PEOPLE OUT THERE !
WHAT DO YOU THINK ?
Thnx bunches
mp
MP -- one of the problems is MT4 itself
ah, allow me to make a small point --- IN THIS PRESENT MARKET, "they" are trading each and every s+r point, up and down, even when they are moving in one direction according to trend.
you WILL NOT see this on a 15 min chart because ALL THE UP AND DOWN MOVEMENT is contained WITHIN the 15 min candle and therefore invisible to you, but you WILL SEE IT on a one or five minute chart.
there are TIMEFRAMES that are being traded that YOU CANNOT SEE on MT4, and they do the same thing --- a SUB ONE MINUTE MOVE can actually hit 4 or more support and resistance points before you even notice a move on the one minute of any significance, which is what is causing so much problems with trading. The timeframe moves that you CANNOT SEE are all contained WITHIN the one minute candle, invisible to you but earning pesos for "them" --- while they do this, they SLOW down the total movement of the currency, no matter what timeframe you observe.
By slowing down the movements, any longer timeframe trades you take can go on for what certainly seems to be "forever !"
other words, WHAT "THEY" ARE DOING IS SOMETHING THAT YOU CANNOT SEE ON YOUR CHARTS !
now to the channels --- remember that the lower timeframe channels WILL change while the HIGHER channels DO NOT until a day after they are violated, giving you statistical points of reference in which to place your TP.
as the currency moves between its support and resistance points within the channels, the LOWER timeframe channels WILL CHANGE, but you should have already chosen your TP POINT based on what WAS ---- where things become interesting is now using the new and redrawing information along with the higher timeframes (up to the 15 for shorter term trades) and following what i have said for bunches of times --- DO THE HIGHER TIMEFRAMES AGREE with the lower. Does the MACD on EACH of the timeframes, up to the 15, AGREE that this trade is a long or a short or they NOT agree ?
the way i judge direction is to watch the one minute, where i MAY take a counter trade IMMEDIATELY upon any support point being reached, but i will NOT HOLD IT unless my other timeframes start showing me confirmation of this counter move I am in --- as each timeframe DOES confirm, i will use the PRESENT TP POINTS as my exit guides, and wait to see if the NEXT HIGHER TIMEFRAME confirms the move or not. If it DOES, i will set my TP to the 15 min support area i choose, and let the trade go, which it will do by meandering all over the map until it settles at my TP ---- when you are doing this, be VERY mindful of time of day and take profit at any support point on the 5 minute chart (assuming youre using the 15 min) when a reversal point comes up ---- IF YOU MISS TAKING THE PROFIT, immediately check your higher timeframes to see if they show that yes, indeed, the price WILL go there but you will now have to wait until at least the next reversal point.
if you are in a trade, and the price is approaching the top of a H1 or H4 channel, rare indeed is the day that you do not take profit at the top of the channel and then WAIT for the next move. Even if the channel is going to be broken (and how much free space to the upside your indicators have left to move will TELL you, especially if you apply the "pencil test"), UNDERSTAND that when the top channel price is HIT, the price is going to retrace, perhaps a small amount or perhaps for all day depending on the time of day this retrace occurs --- if you hold your trade through this period of time waiting for the breakout, you are losing your profit (suffering drawdowns or hitting your SL) for what can become a whole day, which is why WE TAKE PROFIT AT SUCH A RESISTANCE POINT.
ONCE you have done that, you can then short the retrace or simply wait for the dip to end and climb BACK on the long side run, but if you take profit at the resistance point, youve ALREADY made a large amount, and have now bought into the breakout at a way lower price than when you exited with profit
I have shown the indicators that are the MOST valuable (in my opinion) --- BUT the indicators are, in many ways, nothing but guides (remember, although we can certainly use the indicators in a "normal" fashion, the methodology I wish you all to learn is to SEE what the indicators show.
For instance, you can get the DSS moving upwards, but the higher number DSS is moving downwards ---- this tells me we have a temporary upside move taking place BUT the overall trend is DOWN and i should be very carefull of taking a LONG exposure in a DOWN trend !
Forex is NEVER random --- it is pushed from one support to another resistance point and continues that until it hits the top (or bottom) of the H4 or DAILY channel ----
From the very beginning of my rants, I pointed out that YOU had to WATCH and learn from watching (thats called experience) and that if you learned, you could master forex, commodities, futures and index plays with not many problems.
LACK OF EXPERIENCE is what drives newbs to "systems" but unfortunately, in theis present market, "systems" and EA's are FAILING left and right because they, unlike humans, CANNOT grasp what is happening.
I have posted MANY TIMES to keep your trades away from the higher timeframes except for the overnite trades ---- in the USA market at present, its best to play the wee hours brit market going into the USA market up to TWELVE OCLOCK NOON EDT, and then you can place one or two trades to run to 5 oclock, because the afternoon sessions are now bird poop !
Find the right time to trade this current market and take a sensible trade (the 30 min timeframe if you will let your trade run from morning until night or the 15 min timeframe if you wish to be out by the time the market reverses --- taking an H1 or H4 trade these days is like solitary confinement at a supermax --- youre gonna be in it for a long time !
on the following charts please note that the first on the left is that "multi second" chart that remains invisible to users of MT4 (not overly important EXCEPT to show you whats happening here) -- the second is the one minute and the third is the 15 min.
as we all know by now, the 15 minute chart is made up of 15 of the ONE minute candles, and therefore the 15 min candle on the 15 min chart will show the very bottom of the one minute chart move and the very top of its move based on what is really 15 seperate one minute candle moves -- as you can see, the one minute had a lot of downside, but it also had some upside with ranging between support and resistance and a downside move with a retrace in the middle, and this is what causes short term channels to move, as they ADJUST to the changing s + r points.
It becomes kinda sorta advanced as one gains experience with these movements, as you can begin to easily predict where the channels and TP points will move to over time --- when using the 15 min chart, notice how MANY support points are contained in its move and realize that as EACH of those support points are hit, PLUS each and every support point on the lower timeframe charts, the price then retraces either a small or large degree --- we do know that when a price hits a PRICE CHANNEL, there will be a large retrace, and this point "usually" coincides with our normal time based reversal points.
Its really all in there and simply takes watching, understanding and then using, for you to be ahead of the market --- is it horrendously simple . . . . . . nah, but once you catch on, the forex world becomes as plain as day.
and should you desire to avoid this part of the program, simply go with your DSS and TRIX/AD crosses and enter ONCE THE PRICE HAS PASSED THE EMA 5 on your 15 min chart.
One trick explained to me by the woman trader who is doing so well is to use the 12/50 ema cross on the 30 and H1 charts, with the 30 and H1 BOTH AGREEING as to direction, etc ! According to her, this is how she trades and considering how well she does, i aint arguing one bit !
I know it takes time, and i know it takes effort, but since it appears that ALL EA's and "systems" have fallen on their collective faces in response to the "new" market, maybe you owe it to yourself to learn the MARKET itself, and not some system that cant do diddly at the moment !
...
I've overheard rumor that people with long posts are trying to overcome shortcomings in other area of their life....is that true?...anyone?...
MP -- ah yes, the shortcomings in my life
ABSOLUTELY !
while i would not like them to read this, from my avatar you can see part of my problem --- The McGiver sisters are (one each) blonde and brunette (WAIT till you see the brunette) but they do not have a third sister who is a redhead.
THIS is a serious shortcoming in my life and is starting to become ever so slightly bothersome.
mp
I've overheard rumor that people with long posts are trying to overcome shortcomings in other area of their life....is that true?...anyone?...
FXDD GOES LEGIT (or stupid, depending on how you see it )
most recent emails received
FXDD announces full partnership with NFA
4 minutes later
FXDD announces opening of euro offices in Malta to deal with euro union, etc (and probably all the americans who want to be able to hedge !)
I guess they couldnt wait a full five minutes to tell the NFA where to get off !
I guess you may have noticed by now that i DO NOT hold a "reverent" attitude towards the trading of forex, index's or commodities, but I still manage to pull in between 225 and 350 pips a day at a one lot rate.
I guess it was a mite more serious a few years back, but now its just fun and games and understanding whats going on with those who move the markets and make us run amock keeping up.
been teaching how to do it the way i do it (which by definition may not be the greatest way, but works) and a few newbs are now not so newb and a lot more profitable with their manual trading.
SO -- dont immediately throw rotten tomatoes at me, cause inside a lot of what i say with my tongue firmly planted in my cheek is considered by many to be rather insightful information on the REALITY of trading the market, armed only with charts, a pencil and the strong right arm of the men and women of warfare.
aint nothing like eating them pips for breakfast every morning --- REFRESHING !
enjoy and trade well
mp
What is this nice momentum indicator called?
Hello,
Can anyone tell me the name of this indicator on youtube.com:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nNDzcr3dqus
The yellow arrow and the momentum line underneath, in other words. Thanks
indicator forexsignal 30 extreme?
someone has the indicator forexsignal 30 extreme? (down of the image)
thnks
someone has the indicator forexsignal 30 extreme? (down of the image)
thnksThank you so much for your share image Trade.
Can you share your Indi's ( like in your chart ). I',m very very interested !!!
Thank you for your kindness.
Best regards,
Paulinge