Mp -- 7.14.2011 -- early evening updates
946 pm, edst
PRESENT UPSIDE showing only 4222 which is a highly logical point, but if well broken, there is 4266 above. PIVOT lives at 41793 so will be some activity at that point.
PRESENT DOWNSIDE shows 41140, 40949
all others later tonite
Mp -- 7.15.2011 -- overnites and tomorrows
BLACK BOX TRADES W/intermediate trend trades
UPSIDE ---------------------- 4189 (one minute), 4195(5 minute), 4180 (15 min), 4226(30 min), 4223 (60 min), 4302 (H4)
DOWNSIDE ------------------ 4164 (one min), 4152(5 min), 4152(15 min), 4153 (30 min), 4113 (60 min), 3903(H4)
DAILY CHART --- presently 4253 heading for 4268 with 4303 showing WITH DOWNSIDE REVERSAL WHEN FINISHED
TREND CHART SHOWS
UPSIDE ---------------------------- 41793 (PIVOT), 4192, 4220, 4264, 4257 and 4300 agreeing with DAILY
DOWNSIDE ------------------------ 4170, 4138, 4114, 4102, 4091, 4070(possible)
ENJOY AND TRADE WELL
Mp -- 7.17.2011 -- rambling
The olde crystal ball is showing some fun stuff, from a downside in the 3670 area (WHICH number depends on daily, weekly or monthly chart) and an upside of 5804 ending with 6985 on down the road a piece.
a way back near the beginnings of my posts, I said we were going into the 3700 area and it seems highly likely at this point AND its taken a a bit of time ---------- well, 5804 and 6985 IS gonna happen and our trend points to that and unless youve got a few spare million hanging about, its probably NOT the trade to take at this point in time, although even a ONE lot trade would have you singing, in the rain or not !
But thats on down the road and now we concentrate on NOW and the present numbers we have are still valid --- when we hook into a new trend and something for the Black Box to grab onto on sunday, we shall try for the updated version of the couple day old numbers and see where we be going, although at this moment it looks like DOWN into the 3674 area of town.
Mp -- 7.17.2011 -- end of one era -- beginning of next.
As is so normal when government gets involved in something, the infamous Dodd-Franks bill as interpreted by the CFTC has RUINED trading in forex for USA residents and then gone on to push the muscle of the USA on all of Europe, who will not allow USA residents to trade thru their brokerages without some legal wrangling. That this is in effect government decreed stoppage of free trade and a horrible millstone against both my and thousands of others trading for a living, this "forever" democrat can find no way to allow the present administration to continue on the road they appear to be walking, at least not with my votes any longer.
I am taking a short vacation from actual trading, but will continue my "predictions" as my charting services have not been closed by any of the idiots out there that are "protecting us from ourselves" and I shall study the legal methods of working "offshore" for my corporation and its ancillaries.
Not at all interested in "hiding" profits offshore, but simply being allowed to trade as I always have been, both long and short at the same time, and since ALL of the rest of the world can do it, aside from waiting for a Supreme Court decision on the new regulations illegality, I have to move forward.
so one door closes and another will open, I'm sure, but what has been done to the retail trader, who HAD NOTHING TO DO WITH THE USA bank "meltdowns", is an open crime and somewhere out there is an answer as to why WE are being punished.
enjoy and trade well
Mp -- 7.17.2011 -- opening bell madness
DOWNSIDE PRESENTLY SHOWING 3996 which was anticipated, but I didnt expect it today, but then what is forex if not a surprise indeed ?
4057, 4031,4003, 3999, 3996
548pm, edst ---- DOWNSIDE TREND SHOWS 40878 short term presently with longer term to the DOWNSIDE
UPSIDE TREND presently shows 4123 as a reversal point and when all is said and done, 4147 and then 4157 with movement into 4170 area later
LONGER TERM TREND shows 4065 as a good bottom as of this moment with our beloved lower numbers in the futrure (but not DISTANT)
4065 SHOULD BOUNCE US UP INTO THE 4148 (pivot) to 4199 area and then let us come back down with a very possible alternate scenerio of moving to 4273 which is EXTREMELY STRONG RESISTANCE ---- i mean like STRONG !
Mp -- 7.18.2011 -- overnites and tomorrows
1232 AM, edst
DAILY CHART SHOWS ---- 4043
BLACK BOX TRADES
DOWNSIDE ----------------------- 4048 (one minute), 4048 (5 min),4043, 4017(15 min), 4046 (30 min), 3806 (60 min has to break 4050), 3830 (H4)
UPSIDE --------------------------- 4077 (one min), 4039 (5 min), 4105, 4137 (15 min), 4122 (30 min), 4187 (60 min ???), 4313 (H4 ?????)
Mp -- 7.18.2011 -- just ambling along
Now to post over here, in the land of robots and artificial intelligence (OH LORD, could I ever go on about THAT statement on this site but i shall NOT succumb to my most devilish thoughts.
figure the way my readership grows, there has to be some manual traders skulking around here, cause you EA types certainly dont need to know where to take profits --- you got coded, artificial intelligence robots to do that, RIGHT ? ? ? ?
1258 pm, edst
sometimes its nice to watch the market move in a moderately "normal" manner, free of whipping about like a deranged chimpanzee on LSD -- today appears to be one of those days where the "thems" are waiting and moving slowly towards a position that SHOULD be affected by news down the road a piece and theres good stuff coming, like housing starts, unemployment and the gross national production of planters peanut butter, a TRUE arbiter of how well the masses are doing (although with school out for the summer, the figures have to have a "wiggle factor" thrown in because of the number of children NOT eating the stuff --- similar to when they figure the GNP BUT LEAVE OUT FOOD AND GAS, which of course would skew the numbers phenominally, and probably have Obama out of office by now.
anyway, enough politics and economics cause no one here wants that --- just the facts ma'am, as joe friday once said.
OH YEAH --- nothing much changed since my last post simply because nothings much changed !
Mp -- 7.18.2011 -- explanation of stuff
There are distinct differences between short, intermediate and long term TREND analysis and BLACK BOX analysis.
the TREND stuff is pretty self explanatory, short term is basically no more than the 15 minute chart while long term includes the H4 and daily and intermediate is that great "catch all" in the middle.
NOW -- BLACK BOX is something different --- its a software derived support and resistance prophesizing thingie that takes ALL prior information (and i mean ALL) over a set period of time and analyzes what happens when fibs, support or resistance, major moving averages, etc is broken for the currency being watched.
Its advantage is that it is unnervingly correct and its disadvantage is that it CANNOT TELL YOU WHEN this TP point will happen. When one gets used to working with it, using both the trend and the black box can get you into a better ballpark often, but as an example, we keep getting these 3900 and 3800 TP values on the higher timeframes on "blackie" (who is really "pinkie") BUT we dont KNOW WHEN !
SO one takes the daily and the trends and interpolates into the mix to come out with something that is more plausable in a shorter timeframe, and THAT is where a few of those numbers WITHOUT timeframes (a number that doesnt say (one min), for instance) come from on the BLACK BOX trader --- just there to keep you from drawdown hell.
hope that explains something and that i didnt make it as "clear as mud"
forex, at least as played now under the new regs, is a game of constant up and down, more often than not having the SAME support or resistance point hit multiple times before any type of progress, up or down, becomes significant.
those who adhere to ONE longer range trade with ONE TP, while perhaps one of the simplest of trades, although nail biting at times, LOSE a literal fortune because of this up and down movement
the market goes on for hours and hours and hours and hours and so does the flow of money --- to LIMIT oneself to just one trade is completely foolish.
TRY THIS, if only on a demo ---- watch your equity grow on your good trade and when it becomes obvious that we are in a reversal, GET OUT --- now the smart money simply does an opposite trade (long the upside and short the dips) and makes MORE money that way, but you can well enough just do NOTHING but WAIT for the price to go very low (much lower than when you took profits) and then RE-ENTER YOUR TRADE WITH THE SAME TP NUMBERS as before (many a time, since I have more than 100 trades open at any one time, I will have trades with NO TP and simply take profit from them as I see the market reverse direction.
By doing this, you increase your profits tremendously and never have to suffer the "oh God, why didnt i take profit cause i KNOW its never gonna come back again" (and of course it comes back, but does your stomach ?
theres a lot of ways to make love to your mistress, and this is only one of them, but trading has LOTS of different ways and they all work --- the one who dies with the most toys is the one who knows how to use ALL the different methods, depending on how the market is moving.