Forecast of daily high and low. - page 9
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Too much or not enough...
Hi Zion_Lion,
We thank you for the chart and for the work. Questions remains...You have told us too much or not enough. Charts and comments are not on a regular day to day basis, pair to pair basis. Efficiency of the overall is poor.
xx3xxx requests more charts with attached levels, some others request more predictions...but I have also noticed that for personnal reasons you will be away for the next weeks or so. We understand,take care.
If I understand the system, you calculate some parameters that you project for the next day. Is that correct? At which GMT time do you make the high / low prediction ?
Would it be possible to build a work force to enlight this thread, pair by pair, probable degree of error of the system, means of improvments, timing... Just an idea if you wish Zion_Lion.
PM me if you want.
Take care.
Hi Zion_Lion,
We thank you for the chart and for the work. Questions remains...You have told us too much or not enough. Charts and comments are not on a regular day to day basis, pair to pair basis. Efficiency of the overall is poor.
xx3xxx requests more charts with attached levels, some others request more predictions...but I have also noticed that for personnal reasons you will be away for the next weeks or so. We understand,take care.
If I understand the system, you calculate some parameters that you project for the next day. Is that correct? At which GMT time do you make the high / low prediction ?
Would it be possible to build a work force to enlight this thread, pair by pair, probable degree of error of the system, means of improvments, timing... Just an idea if you wish Zion_Lion.
PM me if you want.
Take care.Very welcome.
I have actually been very, very busy with personal matters.
I have also noticed, and always made an apology for not fulfilling as many forecasts as I originally began to.
The process is time consuming, and I have little time this week, and the next 3 weeks, to even start making calculations.
The charts was a new idea started only a few days ago; and that is why they dont really appear to be on a regular basis.
Pair to pair was only possible when I had time.
"Efficiency of the overall is poor."...
This gave me a chuckle.
We are trying our best, and the matter is time consuming. Just sit tight and soon we shall all be able to build a nice thread, packed complete with all relevant pair forecasts, great review presentations, and of course more profitable traders.
My Friend and I have everything with the formula under control. But thank you for the offer of help.
Anyone here that helps is mostly needed for telling Us which pairs you want, how to present them, etc.
And now trying to find which indicator to use in conjunction with the forecast levels.
ya, with chart shown -- even better , write the prediction on chart
and with more currency pair
and how to estimate the margin of error in prediction -- or any early warning sign that the prediction won't be trueI thought about this, and I am considering using the charts for both forecast and review. We shall see.
More currency pairs? We all decided on the 4, plus the 3 (one being gold) that I added. Is there another one that you want? I can add it no problem. Just let me know.
Margin of error depends on volatility and volume, and also movement on other "synchronized" pairs.
Lets say the EU hit its forecast, but the GU is about 20 pips away from it's forecast. The final push on the GU MIGHT carry the EU over forecast by a few pips. This is one reason why calculation to the pip is a challenge.
The early warning depends on your current indicator system. Once a level is reached, and if your indicator doesn't indicate a reversal, than maybe ignore the forecasts???
If it does signal a reversal, than exit your current trade for profit.
I have been sifting through different indicators for some "indication" and synchronization with the reversals at the forecasts levels. Something to tell me that the price is highly probable to reverse at the currently reached forecast level.
I'm still looking though. If anyone has any ideas, let me know.
Another way of trading the forecasts is hedging.
If say, you are in a "buy" and you are up 55 pips.
Then a forecast high is reached, but it is off trading hours and/or the volume seems low.
The price MIGHT reverse at that forecast because there just isn't enough volume at this hour to push it too high.
But you don't want to dump the already 55 pipper!
So, you hedge.
Scenario 1- If the price does get through the forecast level, than you only lost whatever you put your stop at for the sell. But you are still in the buy and gaining profit from it, even covering the sell hedge loss if the price goes high enough.
BUT!
Scenario 2 - If the price does start to reverse and your indicators signal a reversal, then you exit the buy order and ride the price back down.
GodSpeed
Very welcome.
I have actually been very, very busy with personal matters.
I have also noticed, and always made an apology for not fulfilling as many forecasts as I originally began to.
The process is time consuming, and I have little time this week, and the next 3 weeks, to even start making calculations.
The charts was a new idea started only a few days ago; and that is why they dont really appear to be on a regular basis.
Pair to pair was only possible when I had time.
"Efficiency of the overall is poor."...
This gave me a chuckle.
We are trying our best, and the matter is time consuming. Just sit tight and soon we shall all be able to build a nice thread, packed complete with all relevant pair forecasts, great review presentations, and of course more profitable traders.
My Friend and I have everything with the formula under control. But thank you for the offer of help.
Anyone here that helps is mostly needed for telling Us which pairs you want, how to present them, etc.
And now trying to find which indicator to use in conjunction with the forecast levels.m8!gu the most-show your forecast on this pair , thx
Back in the ring.
The long awaited daily forecasts have returned.
Finally.
I'm stepping back into the ring, and going to once again try to help some of the fine members of this forex community.
I'll keep it short. Hit me with a request pair, and I'll work it into tomorrow's list.
Daily forecasts September 26, 2010. Current local time 22:38 EST
EUR/USD
Low volume high- 1.3538 to 1.3550
Average volume high- 1.3594
Extra volume - 1.3655
Low Volume low - 1.3391 to 1.3385
Average volume low- 1.3338 to 1.3326
Extra volume low - 1.3294
If things get a little hectic - 1.3204
GBP/USD
Low volume high- 1.5887 - 1.5895
Average volume high- 1.5947
Extra volume - 1.6007
Low Volume low - 1.5690
Average volume low- 1.5655 to 1.5644
Extra volume low - 1.5563
I'm adding another level on the GU, it is not far from the open price, but still valid according to the calculations. I have small doubts about this level. Lets just see what happens.
1.5775
EUR/USD
Low volume high- 1.3488
Average volume high- 1.3537
Extra volume - 1.3577 to 1.3588
Low Volume low - 1.3410 to 1.3406
Average volume low- 1.3370
Extra volume low - 1.3327
GBP/USD
Low volume high- 1.5849
Average volume high- 1.5894
Extra volume - 1.5950
Extra Extra volume - 1.6014
Low Volume low - 1.5800
Average volume low- 1.5771 to 1.5765
Extra volume low - 1.5692
the long awaited daily forecasts have returned.
I'm stepping back into the ring, and going to once again try to help some of the fine members of this forex community.
I'll keep it short. Hit me with a request pair, and i'll work it into tomorrow's list.
Daily forecasts september 26, 2010. Current local time 22:38 est
eur/usd
low volume high- 1.3538 to 1.3550
average volume high- 1.3594
extra volume - 1.3655
low volume low - 1.3391 to 1.3385
average volume low- 1.3338 to 1.3326
extra volume low - 1.3294
if things get a little hectic - 1.3204
gbp/usd
low volume high- 1.5887 - 1.5895
average volume high- 1.5947
extra volume - 1.6007
low volume low - 1.5690
average volume low- 1.5655 to 1.5644
extra volume low - 1.5563
i'm adding another level on the gu, it is not far from the open price, but still valid according to the calculations. I have small doubts about this level. Lets just see what happens.
1.5775not so good
EUR/USD
The average low was nearly reached, only 10 pips shy.
Average low - 1.3370
Actual low- 1.3380
The low volume high gave some bouncing, and the price now floats within our forecasted range of 1.3577 to 1.3588.
IF, and that is a big "if", things go any higher, than we can anticipate a stop on 1.3617 or as high as 1.3656. But it seems unlikely to go so high. Perhaps I just give them as a "precaution" .
Extra volume high - 1.3577 to 1.3588
Current actual high- 1.3595
an over reach of only 7 pips
Cable
If things hold up, than we can declare that we found the Cable high of the day to the pip.
GBP/USD
Average volume high- 1.5894
Actual High- 1.5894
Adjusting the next potential low. Hoping to the pip as well, but it may fall anywhere in the range of 1.5698 to 1.5690.
Current price 1.5734
Extra volume low - 1.5692 (Adjusted to 1.5698 - 1.5690)
Current actual low- 1.5719
EUR/USD
Low volume high- 1.3641 to 1.3650
Average volume high- 1.3700 to 1.3705
Extra volume - 1.3765
Low Volume low - 1.3434
Average volume low- 1.3388
Extra volume low - 1.3296
(I also like 1.3535. might see at least some bouncing on it. )
GBP/USD (pardon the "extra extra". it is due to single top and bottom yesterday forming "S" shape with tails on either side, which means, at least to me, that a big wave could be coming either direction)
Low volume high- 1.5861
Average volume high- 1.5913
Extra volume - 1.5950
Extra Extra volume - 1.6089
Low Volume low - 1.5752
Average volume low- 1.5699
Extra volume low - 1.5667
Extra Extra volume - 1.5524