My Forex Prediction using Advanced GET - page 8
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Last Update: Tracking GBPJPY
It is vital that you close your position when (1) our Pips Profit Target of 100-300 pips is reached or (2) when our mental Stop Loss of 50-60 pips is touched; when prices have been moving in one direction for most of the day, there is bound to be a reaction.
If you miss this opportunity, you may find yourself trapped.
The GBPJPY went down from morning till 7:13 pm (Malaysian Time) with Pips to Open 142 pips down. I took the opportunity to close my position and lost around 65 pips. I do not want to take any chances.
Tomorrow, I shall not be around and shall only be back n the late afternoon. I can only update the EW charts when I am back home. Sorry about this, guys.
Goodnite.
Regards
Kenneth
Update No.2 - Tracking GBPJPY
Since my earlier posting warning that there were technical signs of GBPJPY easing its downward pressure (at that time the Pips to Open was 133 pips down), it is now 7:39 pm Malaysian Time Pips to Open 53 pips down.
Using a 5 min chart, the retracement is heading towards the Fibonacci Retracement ratio of 78.6%.
By now, readers will be familiar with this type of market behaviour as I have repeatedly pointed out - when prices move in one direction for too long in one day, later in the day there will be a sharp reaction.
This has not in any way affected the Primary downtrend direction of this currency pair.
Regards
Kenneth
Update No.1 Tracking GBPJPY
Just to let you guys know I have SHORT GBPJPY at 155.15; and I have also placed another order to SHORT at 155.97;
If for some reasons the trend goes against me and I have a paper loss, I shall turn into a POSITION TRADER, as the midterm and longer term are still DOWN.
Regards
Kenneth
Agreed
Hi Kenneth, your analysis is spot on .I have placed a short @155.15 as well.
Will hold and play position trading.Major trend is Down with some lows ahead of us.
It is always good to read your skillful market commentary,it reinforces my view and I am learning from you too.
Have a great day and keep those posts coming.
Regards,
Daniel
Update No.2 - Tracking GBPJPY
As long as Aget EW chart for this currency pair shows its PRIMARY trend is down, any rallies will be a good time to short. SELL ON RALLIES in a bear market is the way to play the game but because we do not know whether for today, prices will go up or down, we must be prepared to be a POSITION TRADER.
In fact, I have another order pending selling at 155.97.
At 155.15 the Pips to Open was 76 pips Up
At 155.97 the Pips to Open is 158 pips Up.
(Earlier this week it went up as much as 220 pips, then later gave up all these gains and dived down the next day.. This is a typical bearish market behaviour.)
When the downtrend resumes, there should not be any problem to recover these lost pips and more in a continuing downtrend UNTIL Elliott Wave Structure changed its primary direction.
Only thing - don't place too big an order. I am consistent at 0.5 lot per order (or less) depending on your balance deposit.
Regards
Kenneth
Update No.3 Tracking GBPJPY
At 5:26 pm (Malaysian Time), GBPJPY touched a high of 184 Pips to Open Up compared with the previous high of 220 Up Pips to Open.
It is as though there is no end to the price upsurge.
At time of writing 6:25 pm (MT) I saw the first signs of trend resuming downwards - 157 Pips Up Pips to Open.
My first order at 155.15 is showing a paper loss of 66 pips whilst the second order at 155.97 is showing a paper profit of a meagre 15 pips.
Let's see how things work out - Let the market run its downward course.
Regards
Kenneth
Morning, Guys:
Attached are the EW charts for GBPJPY, GBPUSD, EURUSD and USDJPY.
GBPJPY: It unnerved me when I saw the Pound made a fiery comeback, and at one stage Pips to Open was up by 270 pips. At that time my paper loss for my first order was almost 188 pips. Britain has not improved its economic fundamentals at the moment, and as long as its fundamentals are weak and the EW charts showed its Primary trend is still down, I am holding stubbornly to my short position BUT I shall NOT be adding any new short orders.
Today, Intra-day traders need to be careful as yesterday's daily bar has re-entered the up price channel. I would not do any short selling today as yesterday its rise was very strong.
Very likely we may see a continuation of an upward counter-trend to the major downtrend and see my paper loss piling up but I maintained my stand. In no way, am I suggesting you do the same. There will be a continuation of the downward trend but I do not see Martin Pring's weight of evidence yet although I see a negative divergence in the Elliott Wave Oscillator twice last night but it was beaten back.
For USDJPY, EURUSD and GBPUSD, please read the comments on the charts themselves.
General: As I have always mentioned in my postings, EXPECTATIONS and REALITY can sometimes be worlds apart. I expected the Pound to go down yesterday but the reality is that it went up for some reasons. Unlike the stock market, I can place an intrinsic value on a particular company. In commodities, the cost of production is the floor price at worst. But in forex, where is the intrinsic value and cost of production??? Do be careful and don't be overconfident even in my analysis as things in the real world can go wrong. It is a tricky business even looking at Aget's EW charts but I do not give up.
I shall be going out today, but I shall keep you updated when I am back.
Regards
Kenneth