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USD/JPY: Yen Edges Toward 100 Mark on Safe-Haven Bid
Another risk-off session in markets on Thursday supported the Japanese yen, which traded close to its strongest in more than two years against the greenback.
The USD/JPY fell 0.47% to ¥100.82 on Thursday morning in Tokyo from ¥101.30 where the pair closed in New York on Wednesday, heading back towards the November-2013 low of ¥100.30 seen a day earlier.
Demand for the Japanese yen has grown sharply since the UK voted to leave the European Union on June 23, with the volatility expected by markets in the months and years ahead supporting demand for safe havens.
"Price action in USD/JPY post the Brexit slump has been horrible and a lack of verbal intervention on the drop to 100 has not helped either," Martina Song, Richard Franulovich and Rob Rennie, currency strategists from Westpac Institutional Bank, said in a note.
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USD/JPY forecast for the week of July 11, 2016
The USD/JPY pair fell during the course of the week, but as you can see struggled to break down below the 100 level. With this being the case, it looks as if the market is probably fairly well supported and of course the Bank of Japan sits just below so it’s likely that we will continue to bounce from here and show quite a bit of volatility. Ultimately, the market is concerned about the possibility of intervention, and with that being the case it’s likely that sooner or later things will turn around. Expect a lot of volatility in the meantime though, so this is a situation where you must be patient.
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Abe confirms he has instructed govt to compile economic stimulus package
Japanese PM Abe confirms further economic stimulus on the way 11 July
Wires now confirming the earlier reports
Japan PPI (June): -0.1% m/m (expected -0.1%) and -4.2% y/y (expected -4.2%)
PPI data from Japan for June
Japan industrial production May final mm -2.6% vs -2.3% prev
Japan industrial production May final reading 13 July 2016
USD/JPY: Buck Steps From 3-Wk High, Rests After Powerful Run
The greenback was trading with modest losses against the Japanese yen in the afternoon, snapping its impressive two-day leap worth almost 500 pips.
As a result, the USD/JPY hit a three-week high at ¥104.98 on Tuesday, fueled by hopes of further fiscal and monetary stimulus by the Japanese government after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe confirmed his position in the election over the weekend.
"Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's party's comprehensive win in the upper house elections over the weekend have markets salivating, as talk of a massive stimulus dominates the news wires," senior economist Tom Kenny of ANZ said in a note.
On Wednesday, the pair gave up 0.58% to ¥104.06, while the US dollar index lost 0.37% to 96.16 points during US market hours.
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USD/JPY: Pair Soars Towards ¥106
The yen plunged again on Thursday and the USD/JPY pair was trading more than 1% stronger, seen rising through the ¥105.00 level during the European session and trading around ¥105.60.
Over the weekend in Japan, Upper House elections took place and the results have undermined the yen since then, with the USD/JPY pair rising around five figures this week.
The election results revealed that the ruling coalition captured 70 seats out of the 121 which were up for grabs. The LDP secured 56 seats and Komeito 14 seats. It provides a vote of confidence for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his economic policies. With independents, there are now 165 supporters of constitutional reform in the 242-member Upper House.
Sentiment was positive throughout the week as US stocks set new record highs and European equities also pushed higher, with Germany's DAX rising above 10,000 points.
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Yen slides as solid Chinese data bolsters risk sentiment
The yen fell broadly and hit a three-week low versus the dollar after China's second-quarter gross domestic product and June activity data pointed to stabilization in China's economy and bolstered risk sentiment.
The dollar rose 0.9 percent to 106.27 yen and touched a high of 106.32 yen at one point, its strongest level since June 24.
For the week, the dollar has jumped 5.6 percent against the yen, putting the greenback on track for its best weekly performance versus the yen since February 1999.
The euro gained 1 percent to 118.33 yen (EURJPY=R), while the Australian dollar surged 1.2 percent to 81.29 yen (AUDJPY=R).
"There had been some concerns about the (Chinese) economy but the latest numbers show that it's doing alright," said Masashi Murata, currency strategist for Brown Brothers Harriman in Tokyo.
Earlier on Friday, the risk-sensitive Australian dollar briefly dipped against the yen (AUDJPY=R), following reports that an attacker killed up to 80 people and injured scores when he drove a truck at high speed into a crowd watching Bastille Day fireworks in the French Riviera city of Nice late on Thursday.
The yen is regarded as a safe haven currency partly because of Japan's net creditor status. As a result, the yen tends to rise in times of market stress, but often comes under pressure when investor risk appetite improves.
China's economy grew 6.7 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, steady from the first quarter and slightly better than expected. June retail sales and industrial output also exceeded the market's expectations.
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USD/JPY forecast for the week of July 18, 2016
The USD/JPY pair broke higher during the course of the week, slicing above the 105 level. Having said that, we did form a little bit of a negative candle on Friday so it’s likely that we could get a little bit of bearish pressure. However, I do believe that longer-term this market continues to grind higher due to threats from the Bank of Japan of either stimulus or currency intervention, so having said that I believe that the only thing you can do is buy this market on a shorter-term chart. Long-term charts will be difficult to deal with.
Japan chief cabinet secretary Suga: BOJ has options for further easing
Bloomberg with the headlines a few minutes ago. A few network issues here delaying this post.