Intraday trading signal - page 141
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AceTraderFx Feb 2: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/CHF)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
02 Feb 2015 08:10GMT
USD/CHF - ..... The Swiss franc weakens broadly in early European trading, price just hit fresh 2-week high of 0.9322 after Reuters news reported SNB's sight deposits rose 'again' to 383 bln CHF in the week ending Jan 30 vs 365 bln CHF a week earlier.
This morning in addition to a sharp gap-down open in dlr/yen, dlr/chf & eur/chf also gapped higher in hectic trading in thin NZ/AUD morning sessions Monday.
Reuters reported the SNB, which last month scrapped the cap it had imposed on the value of the franc, is unofficially targeting an exchange rate of 1.05-1.10 francs per euro, a Swiss newspaper reported on Sunday, citing sources close to the bank.
A spokesman for the central bank declined to comment on the story, published in the Schweiz am Sonntag newspaper. Citing unnamed sources close to the bank, the paper said the SNB was operating "a kind of minimum exchange rate against the euro".
"The talk is of a 'corridor' from 1.05 francs to 1.10 francs," the paper said. It also cited a well-informed source as saying the bank would incur losses of up to 10 bln francs, without giving a time frame.
Three days after his shock policy announcement, SNB President Thomas Jordan was asked in a newspaper interview if the bank could bring the policy back in another form. "We take account of exchange rates as a whole. And if the need arises, we will be active in the FX market," he said at the time.
AceTraderFx Feb 2: Weekly Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals USD/JPY
WEEKLY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 01 Feb 2015 23:54GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Neutral
21 HR EMA
117.52
55 HR EMA
117.74
Trend Hourly Chart
Near term down
Hourly Indicators
Falling
13 HR RSI
38
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Choppy consolidation to continue
Resistance
118.50 - Last Thur's high
118.12 - Hourly chart
117.66 - Hourly chart
Support
116.69 - Intra-day low in NZ (Reuters)
116.32 - Jan 16 European low
115.85 - Jan 16 low
. USD/JPY - 117.16... The greenback swung wildly last week inside previous broad range of 118.87-117.48. Dlr staged a strg bounce fm 117.27 (Mon) to 118.66 Tue but only to fall back to 117.27 Wed. Despite a rebound to 118.50 Thur, price fell to 117.30 in NY Fri, then gapped lower to 116.69 at NZ open today.
. Looking at the bigger picture, we've taken recent view dlr's volatile price action fm Dec's 7-1/2 year peak at 121.85 is developing into a triangle with a-leg trough at 115.57, 120.83 marked the b-leg top, the decline to Jan's low at 115.85 was the c-leg bottom. Then dlr's subsequent strg bounce to 118.87 was the 3-legged d-leg upmove. Despite today's weakness to 116.69, reckon downside wud hold well abv 115.85 n bring rebound later this week, however, a daily close abv 118.87 needed to signal an 'upside break' of recent broad consolidation has taken place. On the downside, only below key sup at 115.57 wud invalidate abv triangle scenario n yield correction of the LT uptrend fm 75.32 (2011 record low) to 114.55 n possibly twd 113.52 later.
. Today, intra-day buyong of yen on risk aversion following w/end's downbeat China PMIs may pressure dlr to 116.40/50 b4 prospect of another rebound.
AceTraderFx Feb 2: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
02 Feb 2015 09:36GMT
GBP/USD - ...... Although the British pound opened slightly higher in NZ adn rose to session high at 1.5100, price pared its gains and continued to retreat throughout Asia.
Price briefly dropped to session low at 1.5030 in European morning, however, renewed buying there after the release of better-than-expected UK manufacturing PMI lifted the pair and cabled rebounded strongly to 1.5088.
UK manufacturing PMI came in at 53.0, higher than forecast of 52.7.
Bids are now seen at 1.5050/60 adn more below at 1.5030/40 with stops building up abv there whilst initial offers are noted at 1.5100/10, suggesting buying on dips is still favored.
This morning Cable opened higher in tandem with eur/usd in NZ and briefly touched intra-day high of 1.5100 (Reuters) after tripping light stops above Friday's 1.5090 high but soon retreated and later eased to 1.5070 in Asia.
Range trading below said Monday's high was expected until European open and as Friday's strong rebound from 1.4989 (NY) suggests further volatile consolidation above Jan's 17-month low at 1.4952 would continue, sideways move was expected.
AceTraderFx Feb 3: Intra-Day News and Views (EUR/USD) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
03 Feb 2015 02:14GMT
EUR/USD - ...... The single currency ratcheted higher to 1.1362 on Monday on renewed risk appetite n short-covering due to euro-positive news as Greece retreated from its call on the euro area to write down its debt, and instead proposed to exchange existing borrowings for new bonds linked to the country's growth.
Euro maintained a firm undertone in Asian morning and bids are now located at 1.1325-20 and more at 1.1310-05 with stop only seen below 1.1300.
On the upside, offers are tipped at 1.1360-65 n more at 1.1380.
Bloomberg news reported that Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis spoke to about 100 financiers in London late on Monday and outlined plans to swap some Greek debt owned by the European Central Bank and the European Financial Stability Fund for the new securities, according to a person who attended the meeting and asked not to be identified because they weren't authorized to speak publicly.
Reuters reported Germany's Angela Merkel will have the chance to meet Greece's new leader Alexis Tsipras at a EU summit on Feb. 12, while their 2 finance ministers will meet in coming days, officials said on Monday.
"The German gov't is looking forward to meeting the new Greek PM, there is no specific request for a meeting but there will be opportunities," Merkel's spokeswoman Christiane Wirtz told reporters, adding that Berlin was waiting to hear the Greek govt's ideas.
"There is a willingness and interest in having good relations with the Greek gov't, but Germany will stand by the foundations of its euro policy," Wirtz added.
Tuesday will see the release of Australia Trade Balance, Exports, Imports, Bulling Approvals, RBA rate decision and monetary policy statement, Switzerland's Trade Balance, UK's Markit/CIPS Construction PMI, Italy's CPI, euro zone Producer Prices, Canada Producer Prices, U.S's Redbook, and Factory orders.
AceTraderFx Feb 4: Intra-Day News and Views (NZD/USD) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
04 Feb 2015 00:46GMT
NZD/USD- ...... Breaking news from Reuters, Reserve Bank of NZ governor says non-tradable inflation rate, Auckland housing market shaping rate thinking.
Comments from reserve bank of NZ governor quote as below:
RBNZ governor says trade weighted nz dollar level unjustified, unsustainable despite recent easing; significant further fall expected;
period of cash rate stability most prudent option;
inflation seen below target band, negative for a while, before rising more gradually to around 2 pct;
inflation outlook suggests rates on hold for some time;
would need confidence spare capacity, labour market generating substantial inflation lift before any rate rise;
rate cut might be appropriate if sufficient capacity to cope with extra demand;
deteriorating domestic demand from drought or worse external outlook may warrant rate cut;
nz economic prospects good, growth drivers sustainable;
main risks are china economy outlook; house, dairy, oil prices; nz dlr;
house price inflation appears rising in auckland;
monitoring impact on financial stability, wider economy;
Wednesday will see the release of New Zealand's HLFS Job Growth, HLFS Unemployment rate, Labour Cost Index, China HSBC Service PMI, Italy's Markit/ADACI Service PMI, France's Markit Service PMI, Germany Markit Service PMI, euro zone's Markit Service PMI, Retail Sales, U.K.'s BRC shop price index, Markit/CIPS Service PMI, U.S. ADP National Employment, Markit Service PMI, ISM non-Manufacturing PMI, Canada Ivey PMI.
AceTraderFx Feb 4: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals EUR/USD
DAILY EUR/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 03 Feb 2015 23:53GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Down
Daily Indicators
Turning up
21 HR EMA
1.1422
55 HR EMA
1.1374
Trend Hourly Chart
Near term up
Hourly Indicators
Rising
13 HR RSI
70
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with upside bias
Res
1.1651 - Jan 22 high
1.1587 - 100% proj. of 1.1098-1.1423 fm 1.1262
1.1534 - Y'day's high
Support
1.1423 - Last Tue's high, now sup
1.1368 - Last Thur's high, now sup
1.1313 - Y'day's low
. EUR/USD - 1.1467... Despite euro's sideways trading in Tue's Asia n European morning, hope for a breakthrough on recent standoff between the new Greek anti-bailout gov't n its international creditors lifted the euro n triggered a ferocious rally to 1.1534 once previous top at 1.1423 was penetrated.
. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, euro's rally abv last week's top at 1.1423 (now sup) confirms the LT downtrend fm 1.6040 (2008 record high) has formed a temporary low at last Mon's 11-year trough at 1.1098 n correction to 1.1587 is envisaged after consolidation, this is 100% projection of 1.1098-1.1423 measured fm 1.1262, however, as hourly oscillators wud be o/bot territory on such a move, reckon price wud falter below 1.1676/1.1680, being 50% r of 1.2254-1.1098 n daily res n yield retreat later this week. On the downside, only a daily close below 1.1423 wud indicate a top is possibly made n shift risk to downside for weakness twd 1.13662/68 but sup at 1.1262 shud remain intact.
. Today, intra-day retreat suggests initial consolidation is in store, however, as present price is abv both 21-he n 55-hr emas, buying euro on dips for further marginal gain to indicated upside target is favoured.
AceTraderFx Feb 5: Intra-Day News and Views (EUR/USD) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
05 Feb 2015 00:24GMT
EUR/USD - ....... Euro tumbled in NY afternoon after ECB announced cancellaton of acceptance of Greek bond for funding.
Earlier Reuters reported that the European Central Bank released the following statement on Wednesday on the eligibility of Greek bonds for use as security in its refinancing operations, quote:-
Eligibility of Greek bonds used as collateral in Euro system monetary policy operations.
ECB's Governing Council lifts current waiver of minimum credit rating requirements for marketable instruments issued or guaranteed by the Hellenic Republic.
Suspension is in line with existing Euro system rules, since it is currently not possible to assume a successful conclusion of the programme review.
Suspension has no impact on counter party status of Greek financial institutions.
Liquidity needs of affected Euro system counter parties can be satisfied by the relevant national central bank, in line with Euro system rules.
This decision does not bear consequences for the counter party status of Greek financial institutions in monetary policy operations. Liquidity needs of Euro system counter parties, for counter parties that do not have sufficient alternative collateral, can be satisfied by the relevant national central bank, by means of emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) within the existing Euro system rules.
The instruments in question will cease to be eligible as collateral as of the maturity of the current main refinancing operation.
Later, Reuters reported ECB has renewed its approval of an emergency liquidity assistance line (ELA) for Greek banks to enable them to fund themselves from the country's central bank, a Greek banking source told Reuters on Wednesday.
The ECB had granted a 2-week approval last month n reappraised the situation on Wed.
Thursday will see the release of Australia's HIA New Home Sales, Retail Sales, Switzerland's Consumer Confidence, Germany's Industrial Orders, UK's BoE rate decision and QE Total, U.S.'s International Trade, Labour Costs, Initial Jobless Claims, Productivity, Canada's Trade Balance, Exports and Imports.
AceTraderFx Feb 5: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD), more update from
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
05 Feb 2015 02:29GMT
EUR/USD - ...... The single currency tumbled from 1.1437 in late NY on Wednesday to as low as 1.1305 in Asian morning due to the euro-negative news that Greece lost a critical funding artery as the European Central Bank restricted loans to its financial system, raising pressure on the 10-day-old government to yield to German-led austerity demands to stay in the euro zone.
The ECB's decision, announced at 20:36GMT (9:36 p.m. in Frankfurt), will raise financing costs for Greek banks and stiffen oversight by the central bank. Greece's Finance Ministry said the decision doesn't reflect any negative developments in the nation's financial sector.
Offers are now tipped at 1.1360, 1.1380 and more at 1.1400.
On the downside, some bids are located at 1.1320-10 with mixture of stops and bids is noted at 1.1300.
AceTraderFx Feb 6: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
06 Feb 2015 00:21GMT
USD/JPY - ...... A piece of Reuters news which came out ahead of Tokyo open worth noting. FinMin Taro Aso said on Friday Japan will tell next week's gathering of G20 finance chiefs that the country's economy is steadily improving and that Tokyo will continue with efforts on fiscal consolidation.
Speaking to reporters after a cabinet meeting, Aso reiterated that terrorist financing may be discussed at the G20 meeting in Istanbul, adding that Japan will pledge to continue humanitarian aid to countries coping with terrorism.
Aso said the G20 will debate issues including the global economy, growth strategies, investments, IMF reform, financial regulation and taxation.
Yesterday although the greenback rebounded after holding above Asian low at 117.03 and then briefly rose to 117.56 shortly after New York open, release of mixed U.S. eco. reports capped intra-day gain there so far n dlr retreated to 117.37.
Earlier in New York, U.S. released upbeat U.S. jobless claims data but a disappointing U.S. trade balance report.
The U.S. Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ending Jan 31 increased by 11K to 278K from the previous week's revised total of 267K.
Market had expected initial jobless claims to rise by 23K to 290K last week. In a separate report showed that the U.S. trade deficit widened to $46.56 bln in Dec from $39.75 bln in Nov, whose figure was revised from a previously estimated deficit of $39.00 bln. Market had expected the trade deficit to narrow to $38.00 bln in Dec.
Friday will see the release of Australia's RBA monetary policy statement, Japan's Coincident Indicator, Leading Indicator, Germany's Industrial Output, France Budget Balance, Trade Balance, Exports, Imports, Switzerland's Retail Sales, UK's trade Balance, U.S.'s Average Earnings, Unemployment Rate, Non-Farm Payroll, Canada's Unemployment rate, Unemployment Change, Building Permits. Market holiday in New Zealand on Friday.
AceTraderFx Feb 6: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
06 Feb 2015 05:04GMT
USD/JPY - ...... Japan's leading indicator index came in at +1.5 versus previous reading of -0.7. Japan's government raises view on coincident indicator index, to say that it shows economy is recovering.
Japan PM Abe comment that he wanted BOJ to take responsibility in meeting 2% inflation target, and understood BOJ's explanation that slowing inflation was due to oil prices.
Wile BOJ Iwata's comments:
QQE exerting its intended effects;
see prices rising along with improvement in economy;
prices will continue to improve head as economy grows above potential; prices likely to hit 2% target in period centering on FY 2015/16;
decline in oil prices big factor in pushing down consumer prices;
prices expected to steadily rise ahead as a trend; decline in oil prices will have positive impact on Japan economy, pushing up prices in long run;
BOJ remains committed to meeting 2% inflation at earliest possible time, and keep it in stable manner.
This morning although the greenback ratcheted higher from yesterday's Asian low at 117.03 to 117.60 on short-covering, selling interest at 117.60-65 is likely to limit dlr's upside and more offers were tipped below 118.00 resistance.
On the downside, some bids were located at 117.25-20 and 117.05 with stops building up below 117.00.
Trading is expected to be thin in Asia n European session today as investors are waiting for the release of important U.S. jobs report at 13:30GMT.
Economists revised their estimates of U.S. economic growth downward on Thursday after the government reported a jump in the trade deficit during December to its highest level in more than two years.