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AceTraderFx Sept 25: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on USD/JPY
DAILY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 24 Sep 2014 23:58GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Up
Daily Indicators
Rising
21 HR EMA
108.90
55 HR EMA
108.81
Trend Hourly Chart
Up
Hourly Indicators
Rising
13 HR RSI
74
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation b4 uptrend resumes
Resistance
110.67 - 2008 peak (AUG)
109.90 - 61.8% proj. of 106.81-109.46 fm 108.26
109.46 - Last Fri's fresh 6-year high
Support
108.46 - Y'day's low
108.26 - Tue's low
108.14 - 50% r of 106.81-109.46
. USD/JPY - 109.27 ... Despite dlr's brief but sharp drop to 108.46 ahead of of Tokyo open on Wed due to Japan PM Abe's comment on weak yen, dlr rebounded to 108.78 in Asia on recovery in The Nikkei. The pair continued its intra-day gain n climbed to 109.15 near NY close due to dlr's broad-based strength.
. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, y'day's rebound n intra-day breach
of res at 109.19/20 suggests the correction fm last Fri's fresh 6-year peak at
109.46 has ended at 108.26 on Tue n upside bias remains for re-test of 109.46, abv wud confirm the LT uptrend fm 2011 record low at 75.32 (Nov) has once again resumed n yield gain to daily obj. at 109.70, however, as hourly oscillators wud display 'bearish divergences' on such move, reckon 109.90/110.00 wud cap upside, this is 61.8% proj. of 106.81-109.46 measured fm 108.26 n 'psychological' lvl respectively. On the downside, only below 108.26 wud defer bullishness on dlr.
. Today, as dlr has maintained a firm undertone after penetrating 109.19/20 res ahead of Tokyo open, buying on dips in anticipation of a resumption of said uptrend is favoured n only below 108.65/70 wud dampen bullish scenario, however, this week's low at 108.26 shud remain intact.
AceTraderFx Sept 26: Intra-Day News & Views & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
26 Sep 2014
Last night Atlanta Federal Reserve President Dennis Lockhart said that the Fed's main policy statement will almost certainly shift in October as its bond-buying program winds down.
The current statement says the Fed will wait "a considerable time" after the end of its bond-buying program before raising interest rates. The end of the bond-buying program means that phrase will have to change, Lockhart said, though the committee may just drop the reference to the asset purchases and keep the rest of the language. With the softening economy, Lockhart, for one, said he thinks "considerable time" should remain.
"Some adjustment will come because of the reference to the end of asset purchases. That does not mean necessarily that the use of the phrase considerable time will be dropped," Lockhart said. "Whether we like it or not any change in language will be viewed as a signal. As policymakers the question I have to evaluate is do I now want to make that signal?...I would prefer to see a little more time pass to confirm that we are on the path that we think we are on and that we are going to start normalization with our statutory objectives in sight."
He also said that global trends may keep that dollar at its current high levels, particularly the continued weakness in Europe.
From the rise in the dollar alone "it is hard to disentangle whether we are getting a vote of confidence or whether the rest of the world is showing more trouble or weakness," he said.
Fridaywill see the release of Japan's CPI Germany's Gfk consumer sentiment, France's consumer confidence, U.S. core PCE, GDP in Q2 and University of Michigan sentiment.
AceTraderFx Sept 26: Intra-Day News & Views EUR/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
26 Sep 2014
EUR/USD - 1.2746...... Euro finally gains respite in Asia after suffering from recent losing streak. Despite yesterday's climatic sell off in European morning after penetrating key daily sup at 1.2745 (2013 bottom in Apr) to a near 22-month trough of 1.2696 (1.26955 on EBS), minor short-covering lifted the pair to 1.2736 and price came under renewed selling on Dallas Fed Richard Fisher comments on Reuters that the Fed may start raising rates around the spring of 2015, at the earlier end of market expectations, bids above 1.2700 contained pullback and euro later climbed to 1.3765 in NY as weaker-than-expected U.S. data prompted further short-covering in euro.
Although euro has edged lower in Asia from 1.2761 on intra-day renewed dlr's strength caused by strong bounce in dlr/yen, range trading is expected to continue n traders would look to cover their shorts ahead of the weekend. Initial bids are noted at 1.3730-25 and more at 1.3700 with stops reported below 1.2695, however, good buying interest is touted near 1.2690/80.
On the upside, offers are tipped at 1.2760/65 and more at 1.2775/80 with stops (fairly large) building abv 1.3800/10 area.
AceTraderFx Sept 26: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on GBP/USD
DAILY GBP/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 26 Sep 2014 00:45GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Down
Daily Indicators
Turning up
21 HR EMA
1.6321
55 HR EMA
1.6336
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Turning up
13 HR RSI
54
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation b4 one more fall
Resistance
1.6416 - Tue's high
1.6373 - Wed's European morning low
1.6353 - Tue's NY low
Support
1.6276 - Y'day's low
1.6247 - Last Thur's low (AUS)
1.6262 - Sep 16 low
. GBP/USD- 1.6330 ... The British pound swung wildly y'day. Price briefly penetrated last Fri's low at 1.6284 to 1.6276 in European morning, price staged a failed rally after mildly hawkish comments fm BOE's Carney but quickly reteated to 1.6294 in choppy NY session n later ratcheted higher near NY close.
. Although cable's rebound after y'day's resumption of decline fm last Fri;s 1.6525 to 1.6276, as this move signals at least the 1st leg of correction fm Sep's 9-1/2 month trough at 1.6052, downside bias remains for weakness twd 1.6233, this is the 'dynamic' 61.8% r of aforesaid rise. Below 1.6233 wud yield subsequent weakness twd 1.6175 (equality proj. of 1.6525-1.6284 measured fm 1.6416) but a daily close of 1.6162 sup is needed to signal correction fm 1.6052 is over. On the upside, only a daily close abv 1.6416 wud risk stronger gain to 1.6433 (61.8% r of 1.6525-1.6284) but reckon 1.6481 (last Fri's European high) wud cap upside.
. Today, we're holding a short position in anticipation of further weakness after initial consolidation in Asia but profit shud be taken on subsequent decline. Aabv 1.6373 may risk stronger gain to 1.6413/16 res area.
AceTraderFx Sept 26: Intra-Day News & Views USD/JPY
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
26 Sep 2014 08:42GMT
USD/JPY - ...... Despite the greenback's initial weakness to 108.48 in Australia, renewed buying emerged there n pushed the pair higher. Dlr rose to 109.11 ahead of Asian open, n then higher to 109.16 in Asian morning on comments from Japan's Shiozaki. However, price pared its gains and retreated briefly but sharply to 108.85 b4 rebounding again in Europe.
Japan Welfare minister Shiozaki said he has no intention to put off reforms for the Gov't Pension Ivestment Fund (GPIF).
Reform of this fund is expected to result in more investment being channeled into Japanese equities n overseas assets, thus causing weakness in yen.
Bids are now seen at 108.80/90 n more below at 108.50/60 with stops building up below there whilst initial offers are noted at 109.40/50, suggesting buying on dips is still favored.
Earlier this morning, despite extending previous day's gain to 109.34 ahead of Tokyo open on Thur, then a marginal rise to 109.37 at European open, the pair fell sharply below 109.00 level in Thur's NY morning on risk aversion due to decline in U.S. n European stock markets together with news of Japan's health minister Shiozaki who said no hurry to reform GPIF.
Price tanked to 108.51 n then briefly recovered to 108.88 b4 edging lower in NY afternoon. Dollar fell briefly to 108.47/48 in Tokyo morning but rebounded to 109.11 as Nikkei pared initial losses after a 286 points 'gap-down' opening.
Although yesterday's intra-day sell off fm 109.37 to 108.51 indicates choppy trading below last Fri's 6-year peak of 109.46 wud contniue as investors are reluctant to add bets ahead of the release of U.S. GDP data (even though it is a final reading) n consumer sentiment report later today, range trading abv this week's low at 108.26 (Tue) shud continue in Asia n early Europe.
Offers are noted at 108.75/80, 108.95/00 n around 109.20, whilst bids are placed at 108.35/30 n then 108.20 with mixture of bids n stops located just below 108.00.
On the data front, economists estimate the U.S. Q2 real GDP is likely revised higher to 4.6%, while no significant revisions are expected for the GDP price index n core PCE deflator in Q2.
Later, University of Michigan will release report for consumer sentiment in Sept n market expects the final Sept sentiment index to come in higher at 84.7 than the preliminary report.
AceTraderFx Sept 29: Intra-Day News & Views(EUR/USD) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views
29 Sep 2014 02:09GMT
EUR/USD - ..... Euro briefly fell marginally below Fri's NY low of 1.2677 to a fresh 22-month at 1.2667/68 in NZ as short-term specs bot the greenback broadly shortly after Mon open following Fri's renewed weakness in NY session after upbeat revised U.S. GDP data, however, lack of follow-through selling lifted the pair to 1.2688 in Asia.
Looks like range trading is in store until European open as traders await release of EZ confidence index n German inflation data at 09:00GMT.
With Fri's release of CFTC report which showed net long usd positions hitting at 15-month high, selling euro on intra-day recovery is the way to go as recent losing streak is expected to continue.
Offers are tipped at 1.2690/00 n more abv with some stops touted abv 1.2730. On the downside, some bids are noted at 1.2670-60 with some stops below there.
Last week, ECB Governing Council member Luc Coene told a conference on Fri in Brussels the central bank be prepared to enact more stimulus measures if necessary to increase liquidity in the euro area.
Coene held out the possibility that the targeted-loan program that the ECB announced in Jun wouldn't be adequate to spur lending n stimulate the economy of the 18-nation euro area. He said "if we estimate that it? insufficient, inevitably we will add other instruments at our disposal to increase the balance sheet of the central bank, if it's necessary."
Coene added he considered Sep's demand to be at predicted levels, n he expected it to be greater at the next operation in Dec. "The fact that they didn't take a lot seemed to us more or less foreseeable in the month of Sep," "I think there will be more pronounced demand for the December offering."
Next week will see the release of U.K. mortgage approvals, eurozone business climate, consumer confidence, economic and industrial sentiment, Germany's CPI and HICP, U.S. PCE price index, core PCE price index, personal income and consumption, pending home index and pending sales change on Monday;
Gfk consumer confidence, Japan's unemployment rate, all household spending, industrial prelim. output, IP forecast and retail sales, China's final HSBC manufacturing PMI, Japan's construction orders and housing starts, Germany's retail sales, U.K. national house price, Swiss KOF indicator, Germany's unemployment rate, Canada's GDP and producer prices, U.S. Redbook, CaseShiller 20 MM house prices, Chicago PMI, consumer confidence on Tuesday;
Japan's Tankan, China's NBS manufacturing PMI, Australia's retail sales, Japan's manufacturing PMI, Swiss PMI, German and eurozone Markit manufacturing PMI, U.K. Markit manufacturing PMI, ADP National employment, Canada's RBC manufacturing PMI, U.S. final Markit manufacturing PMI, construction spending, ISM manufacturing PMI on Wednesday;
Australia's HIA new home sales, building approvals and trade balance, U.K. Markit construction PMI, eurozone producer prices, ECB rate decision, U.S. jobless claims, ISM New York index, revised durable goods and factory orders on Thursday;
China's NBS non-manufacturing PMI, German and eurozone Markit final services PMI, eurozone retail sales, Canada's imports, exports and trade balance, U.S. average earnings, government payrolls, unemployment rate, Markit services PMI, ISM non-manufacturing new orders and PMI on Friday.
AceTraderFx Sept 29: Intra-Day News & Views (USD/JPY)
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views
29 Sep 2014
USD/JPY - ..... The greenback strengthen against the yen ahead of Europe after comments from Japan PM Abe (see our prev. MMN), price rose above last Friday's 6-year peak at 109.54 to 109.75 b4 retreating to 109.55 due to renewed broad-based weakness in dlr.
Offers at 109.60-70 are being absorbing but more are noted at 109.80/85 and ahead of 110.00 with stops emerging just above there.
On the downside, fresh bids are building up at 109.40-30 and 109.20-10 with mixture of bids and stops located just below 109.00.
Japan's PM Abe said a need to keep cautious watch on impact on economy from sales tax hike, higher fuel prices and adverse weather;
want to achieve summit with Chinese leader at early stage.'
Earlier, BoJ Governor Kuroda said we should pay more attention to the needed to strengthen financial system as a whole on global basis; it is also critical to implement a wide range of initiatives to maintain financial system stability; if the function of the financial system declines, the effects of monetary policy will decline; central banks cannot be unconcerned about the stability of the financial system.
Kuroda continues n says history suggests substantial imbalances in financial, economic activity emerge via feedback loop in which changes in output gap, financial cycle reinforce each other; developments in Japan's financial intermediation show no indication of overheating or excessively bullish expectations; BoJ will make policy adjustment without hesitation if judged necessary to achieve its price target.
AceTraderFx Sept 29: Weekly Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on USD/CHF
WEEKLY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 29 Sep 2014 00:12GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Up
Daily Indicators
Rising
21 HR EMA
0.9503
55 HR EMA
0.9479
Trend Hourly Chart
Up
Hourly Indicators
Bearish divergences
13 HR RSI
70
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Resumption of MT uptrend
Resistance
0.9620 - 100% proj. fo 0.9353-0.9515 fm 0.457
0.9599 - 70.7% r of 0.9972-0.8698
0.9567 - Mar 2013 top
Support
0.9484 - Last Fri's European high (now sup)
0.9457 - Last Thur's NY low
0.9433 - Sep 167 high (now sup)
. USD/CHF - 0.9517... Dlr continued its recent winning streak last week after meeting renewed buying at 0.8353 on Tue, price climbed to a fresh 1-year peak of 0.9522 in Fri's NY session due to broad-based rally in the dlr.
. Looking at the bigger picture 1st, dlr's aforesaid gain to 0.9522 Fri confirms the 3-legged rise fm Mar's 2-1/2 year trough at 0.8698 to at least retracing MT fall fm 0.9972 (2012 peak) remains in progress n gain to 0.9599 is now envisaged, being 70.7% r of this move, however, as hourly indicators have displayed 'bearish divergences', reckon 0.9620 (equality measurement of 0.9353-0.9515 measured fm 0.9457) wud cap upside ahead of Fri's important U.S. payrolls report n yield a minor correction. Therefore, whilst buying on dips is the way to go, profit shud be taken on next upmove. On the downside, a daily close below 0.9457 wud be the 1st signal temporary top is in place n risk stronger retracement to 0.9389 but sup at 0.9332 shud remain intact.
. Today, as current price is trading abv the 21-hr & 55-hr emas, buying dlr on dips is recommended, however, reckon 0.9599 wud cap upside. Below 0.8457 wud abort present bullish scenario n risk retracement to 0.9433, 0.9407/10.
AceTraderFx Sept 30: Intra-Day News & Views(EUR/USD) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views
30 Sep 2014 01:46GMT
EUR/USD - ...... Euro trades narrowly with a downside bias on the last trading day of the month (also end of Q3) in Asia after staging a short-covering rebound from Monday's fresh 22-month low of 1.2664 to 1.2715 shortly after NY open.
However, renewed selling quickly emerged and pushed price lower to 1.2678 but another round of buying returned and lifted euro to 1.2712 ahead of European close but euro later drifted lower in NY afternoon after failure to absorb offers at 1.2710/15.
The single currency touched an intra-day low of 1.2681 in Asia and range trading with a soft bias is seen ahead of release of a slew of euro area eco. data later starting with Germany's retail sales at 06:00GMT, then German unemployment at 07:55GMT followed by Italy's unemployment at 08:00GMT. At 09:00GMT, EZ will release the key inflation & unemployment data, Italy will release CPI & PPI data.
Offers are reported at 1.2705/15 with stops above 1.2730. Initial bids are noted at 1.2880-70 with a mixture of buying interest n stops touted at 1.2665-60.
Data to be released on Tuesday:
Japan unemployment, household spending, industrial output, retail sales, New Zealand RBNZ business outlook, China manufacturing PMI, Germany retail sales, unemployment, UK consumer confidence, house prices, GDP, France producer prices, Swiss KOF indicator, Italy unemployment, CPI, EU inflation, Canada GDP, producer prices, U.S. redbook retail sales, caseshiller house prices, Chicago PMI and consumer confidence.
AceTraderFx Sept 30: Intra-Day News & Views GBP/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views
30 Sep 2014
GBP/USD - ...... U.K. Sept Nationwide house prices +9.4% y/y n -0.2% m/m. U.K.'s Nationwide says 'Q3 London house prices +21% y/y vs Q2 25.8%, 31% above 2007; U.K. house prices may soften in Q4, but outlook uncertain.''
Cable shrugged off the release of weaker-than-expected house price data and climbed above Asian high of 1.6268 to 1.6271 shortly after European open.
Fresh bids are noted at 1.6240-30 and more at 1.6220/15, then 1.6210 with mixture of bids and stops emerging below 1.6200.
On the upside, offers are placed at 1.6275/80 and 1.6290/95 with stops placed just above 1.6300.
Earlier cable swung wildly on Monday as despite a brief fall to 1.6210 in tandem with euro at NZ open, price ratcheted higher in Asia and Europe on broad-based weakness in greenback.
Later, the British pound climbed to a session high of 1.6275 in NY morning before retreating to 1.6245 and then 1.6225 shortly after Asian open on Tuesday.
Range trading above yesterday's low at 1.6210 is expected until European open as investors are reluctant to add bets ahead of the release of U.K. current account and the confirmation of Q2 GDP reading at 08:30GMT.
Bids are noted at 1.6220/15 n then 1.6210 with mixture of bids and stops located around 1.6200. On the upside, offers are placed at 1.6250-60 and then 1.6275/80 with stops placed just above 1.6300.
Market expects the U.K. Q2 final continues to post strong readings with a growth of 0.8% Q/Q and 3.2% Y/Y.
Meanwhile, economists estimate U.K. Q2 current account deficit to narrow to 17.00 bln pounds from 18.5 bln pounds in Q1 (in the other way to show increasing demand for pounds from foreigners).