Intraday trading signal - page 122
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AceTraderFx Sept 30: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on EUR/USD
DAILY EUR/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 29 Sep 2014 23:39GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Down
Daily Indicators
Bullish convergences
21 HR EMA
1.2691
55 HR EMA
1.2709
Trend Hourly Chart
Down
Hourly Indicators
Bullish convergences
13 HR RSI
49
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation b4 one more fall
Resistance
1.2801 - Hourly chart
1.2765 - Last Thur's NY high
1.2728 - Last Fri's European morning low
Support
1.2664 - Y'day's low
1.2641 - 61.8% proj. of 1.3433-1.2860 fm 1.2995
1.2600 - 2.236 times ext. of 1.3995-1.3503 fm 1.3700
. EUR/USD - 1.2691... Although Fri's close near the day's low pressured the single currency in Asia on Mon, price briefly weakened to a fresh 22-month trough of 1.2664 just ahead of European open, short-covering lifted the pair to 1.2715 in NY morning b4 coming off to 1.2678 b4 moving sideways in NY afternoon.
. Looking at the hourly & daily charts, although said Mon's low at 1.2664 was accompanied by 'bullish convergences' on the hourly indicators, as long as 1.2725/28 (prev. sup, now res) holds, the MT downtrend fm May's 2-1/2 year peak 1.3995 is en route to next chart obj. at at 1.2661 (Nov 13 2012 low), however, reckon 1.2600 (2.236 times extension of 1.3995-1.3503 measured fm 1.3700) wud hold on 1st testing ahead of Thur's ECB policy meeting n bring a much-needed minor correction. On the upside, a daily close abv 1.2765 wud be the 1st signal temporary low is made n yield stronger gain twd 1.2816, however, res at 1.2901 (last week's high on Tue) shud remain intact. In view of abv bearish analysis on euro, selling euro on recovery is the way to go.
. Today, we're holding a short position for one more fall but profit shud be taken on subsequent decline.
AceTraderFx Oct 2: Intra-Day News & Views (GBP/USD) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views
02 Oct 2014
GBP/USD - ...... Cable swung wildly in Wednesday's session as despite falling to a fresh 2-week low of 1.6161 after release of downbeat U.K. mfg PMI in European morning, short-covering together with broad-based selling in greenback after downbeat U.S. data lifted price to 1.6252 in NY before retreating to 1.6173 on renewed cross-selling in sterling.
Later, price edged higher after NY closing and recovered to 1.6199 in Aust. and 1.6206 in Asian morning.
The overnight rebound after holding above yesterday's low of 1.6161 suggests range trading is likely until European open, however, investors should pay attention to the release of U.K. Markit construction PMI at 08:30GMT.
In addition, investors should also closely watch the intra-day move of eur/gbp cross as yesterday's recovery after failing to penetrate Tuesday's 2-year low at 0.8766 may triggered broad-based short covering and pressure price here later in the day.
Bids are noted at 1.6185/80 and around 1.6170 with mixture of bids and stops at 1.6150/45 and further out at 1.6130.
On the upside, offers are placed at 1.6220-30 and then 1.6240/45 with stops emerging just above 1.6260.
Data to be released on Thursday:
China market holiday, Australia new home sales, exports, imports, trade balance, UK construction PMI, EU producer prices, ECB rate decision, U.S. jobless claims, ISM New-York index, durable goods and factory orders.
AceTraderFx Oct 3: Intra-Day News & Views(USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views
03 Oct 2014 02:40GMT
USD/JPY-......News from Japan Health Min Shiozaki, He said, quote
'what's most important in GPIF reform is to safely and efficiently manage public's pension funds;
reforming fund management, governance both important for GPIF.'
Another news from Japan PM Abe, he said, quote:
'its true Apr sales tax hike led to 7.1% contraction in Apr-Jun GDP;
must scrutinize impact of bad summer weather, rising fuel costs on economy, among other factors, in deciding whether to proceed with second sales tax hike.'
Yesterday saw USD/JPY, the pair was the major mover. Price came under renewed selling pressure due to broad-based buying of yen at Tokyo open as previous day sell off in the Dow pressured the Nikkei.
Dlr fell below Wednesday's 108.87 low to 138.55 after N225 index tumbled 420 points n despite a brief recovery to 108.96 at yesterday European open, renewed weakness in the Nikkei futures prompted another wave of broad-based buying in yen, the pair tumbled to session low of 108.32.
However, price pares yesterday intra-day loss as Nikkei futures staged a recovery after having fallen 120 points earlier.
Data to be released on Friday:
China market holiday, non-manufacturing PMI, Australia new home sales, Japan services PMI, Italy services PMI, France services PMI, Germany market holiday, services PMI, EU services PMI, retail sales, UK services PMI, U.S. non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, avg. earnings, trade balance, services PMI, ISM non-manufacturing PMI, Canada imports, exports and trade balance.
AceTraderFx Oct 3: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on USD/JPY
DAILY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 03 Oct 2014 00:20GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Up
Daily Indicators
Easing fm o/bot
21 HR EMA
108.58
55 HR EMA
108.91
Trend Hourly Chart
Nr term down
Hourly Indicators
Rising fm o/sold
13 HR RSI
52
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with downside bias
Resistance
109.69 - Prev. sup, now res
109.12 - Y'day's high in Aust.
108.89 - Y'day's NY morning res
Support
108.01 - Y'day's low
107.60 - 1.23 times extn of 110.09-108.87 fm 109.12
107.40 - Sep 12 high, now sup
. USD/JPY- 108.68 ... Dlr found renewed selling at 109.12 in Aust. on Thur n easily penetrated Wed's NY low at 108.87 in Asia due to tumble in N225, price ratcheted lower in Europe n fell to 108.01 in NY midday b4 short-covering lifted price in NY afternoon. Dlr rebounded to 108.73 shortly after Fri's Tokyo open.
. Y'day's breach of 108.26 (Sep 23 low) to 108.01 signals LT uptrend fm 2011 record low at 75.32 (Nov) has indeed made a temporary top at Wed's fresh 6-year peak at 110.09 n although subsequent intra-day rebound indicates initial choppy trading wud be seen in Asia, reckon 109.05, the 'natural' 50% r of 110.09-108.01 , wud cap upside n bearishness remains for another corrective fall to take place later. Having said that, as 'bullish converging signals' wud appear on hourly oscillators on next decline, sharp move below 108.01 is not likely today n price shud hold abv 107.60, this is the 1.23 times extension of 110.09-108.87 measured fm 109.12, n yield strg rebound.
. Today, whilst selling dlr on intra-day recovery is recommended, one may look to buy next decline to 107.85 n take profit on subsequent rebound. On the upside, only abv 109.30 (61.8% r fm 110.09) indicates correction over, 109.69.
AceTraderFx Oct 6: Intra-Day News & Views(GBP/USD) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views
06 Oct 2014 01:01GMT
GBP/USD- ..... Cable came under renewed selling pressure at NZ open today on bearish comments by U.K. Business Secretary Vince Cable.
Bloomberg reported Vince Cable said U.K.'s economic growth is being hampered by stalled exports, partly as a result of the high value of sterling.
"Arguably, the pound is overvalued by 10 to 15% on a trade-weighted basis," Cable told a side meeting yesterday at his Liberal Democrat party's annual conference in Glasgow, Scotland. "This feeds back into monetary policy. It is a significant problem that we can't directly address."
His comments echo those of BoE Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent, who said in an interview in July that it's "quite possible" the pound is 10% overvalued n its strength may have a long-lasting impact on inflation. The IMF said the same month in its External Stability Report that the pound was overvalued by 10% to 15%.
Sterling is nursing loss in subdued Asian trading after opening lower in NZ on w/end bearish comments by U.K. Bus. Secretary Vince Cable. Short-term specs sold cable at Mon open on stop hunting, price briefly fell below Fri's 1.5953 low to a near 1-year trough of 1.5943 (Reuters), however, lack of follow-through selling later lifted the pound at Asian open.
Although range trading is in store in quiet Asian morning, Fri's sell off below Sept's 1.6052 low suggests signals recent decline has once again, so selling cable on recovery is the way to go. Order board is pretty empty, some offers are noted at 1.5980/890 n more abv with stops touted abv 1.6050. Some bids are noted at 1.5945-35. The only data due out at London open is Halifax house price at 07:00GMT.
Data to be released next week:
China market holiday, Germany industrial orders, UK Halifax house prices, EU sentix index and Canada Ivey PMI on Monday.
New Zealand business confidence, Japan BoJ rate decision, leading indicators, Australia RBA rate decision, Germany industrial output, Swiss CPI, retail sales, UK industrial output, manufacturing output, Canada building permits and U.S. redbook retail sales on Tuesday.
UK BRC shop price index, Japan current account, China HSBC services PMI, Swiss unemployment, Canada housing starts and U.S. FOMC minutes on Wednesday.
Japan machinery orders, Australia employment, unemployment, consumer confidence, Germany imports, exports, trade balance, France imports, exports, trade balance, UK BoE rate decision, U.S. jobless claims, wholesale sales, wholesale inventories and Canada new housing price index on Thursday.
Japan BoJ minutes, consumer confidence, France industrial output, Italy industrial output, UK trade balance, Canada employment, unemployment, U.S. export price index and import price index on Friday.
AceTraderFx Oct 6: Weekly Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on USD/CHF
WEEKLY USD/CHF TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 06 Oct 2014 00:07GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Up
Daily Indicators
Overbought
21 HR EMA
0.9623
55 HR EMA
0.9585
Trend Hourly Chart
Up
Hourly Indicators
Overbought
13 HR RSI
85
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Resumption of MT uptrend
Resistance
0.9814 - 100% proj. of 0.9301-0.9597 fm 0.9518
0.9745 - 2.618 times ext. of 0.8698-0.9037 fm 0.8857
0.9701 - 61.8% proj. of 0.9301-0.9597 fm 0.9518
Support
0.9637 - Hourly chart
0.9597 - Last Tue's high (now sup)
0.9581 - Last Thur's johj ( now sup)
. USD/CHF - 0.9676... Although dlr resumed its recent uptrend to a fresh 1-year high of 0.9597 last Tue, broad-based profit taking in the greenback pushed back down to 0.9518 Thur b4 rallying again to fresh 2014 peak of 0.9684 on Fri due to robust U.S. jobs data together wuth buying in eur/chf cross.
. Fri's gain to 0.9684 confirms the 3-legged MT upmove fm Mar's 2-1/2 year trough at 0.8698 remains in progress. Looking at the bigger picture, dlr's said strg rise fm 0.8698 confirms correction fm 2012 peak at 0.9972 has ended n dlr is en route twd there later this month. Current rising daily technical indicators suggest gain to 0.9745 wud be seen next, this is 2.618 times extension of intermediate rise fm 0.8698-0.9037 measured fm 0.8857, o/bot readings on the daily oscillators wud prevent strg gain n reckon pivotal res at 0.9839 (2013 top in May)) wud hold on 1st testing. Therefore, buying dlr on dips is the way to go n only a daily close below 0.9489 wud signal temporary top is in place.
. Today, dlr briefly climbed to 0.9690 in NZ but has retreated. As current price is trading abv the 21-hr & 55-hr emas, buying on dips is favoured but upside is ltd to 0.9745. Below 0.9597 wud be the 1st signal a minor top is made.
AceTraderFx Oct 7: Intra-Day News & Views(USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views
07 Oct 2014 01:34GMT
USD/JPY - ...... Reuters news quoting BOJ GOV Kuroda who is speaking before the parliament and says, quote:
recent export moves lacking momentum;
exports likely to improve moderately as overseas growth picks up;
tankan showed CAPEX plans are pretty firm;
positive cycle of households, companies using their income for spending is in place;
effect of sales tax hike on economy being prolonged, bad weather also affecting economy;
weak yen is generally positive for Japan's economy if it reflects economic, market fundamentals;
in general, weak yen has some positive effects on exports, Japan firms operating overseas;
weak yen also pushes down earnings of non-manufacturers by pushing up import costs.
Kuroda continues n says BOJ ready to adjust policy if needed, which means we will ease policy if economic, price outlook undershoots our forecasts; economy on steady track to meet 2% inflation goal; receny yen weakness due to diverging monetary policies between Japan, U.S. n Europe; yen weakness up until now has not been a problem for Japan's economy; important for public finances to be sustainable; appreciate govt's effort to tackle fiscal reforms.
01:12GMT Japan's GPIF now aims to decide portfolio overhaul between mid-Nov n mid-Dec, source.
Japan's Chief Govt. Spokesman says "had expected weak yen to boost exports but now moving sideways".
This morning BOJ Governor Kuroda to appear in parliament from around 01:20GMT - parliamentary source.
BOJ board meeting to recess for about 1-2 hours during time GOV Kuroda appears in parliament.
Last night, the greenback tumbled to as low as 108.65 due to active long liquidation in thin U.S. trading. Offers are tipped at 109.00-10 n more at 109.30. On the downside, a mixture of bids n stops is located at 108.50.
Tuesdaywill see the release of New Zealand business confidence, Japan BoJ rate decision, leading indicators, Australia RBA rate decision, Germany industrial output, Swiss CPI, retail sales, UK industrial output, manufacturing output, Canada building permits and U.S. redbook retail sales.
AceTraderFx Oct 7: Intra-Day News & Views NZD/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views
07 Oct 2014
NEW ZEALAND GOVT OPERATING DEFICIT (OBEGAL) TO JUNE 30 NZ$2.93 BLN, -13 PCT VS FORECAST
NZ GOVT DEBT AT JUNE 30 26.2 PCT GDP, VS FORECAST 25.9 PCT
NZ Finance mininster Bill English said reaching 2014/15 surplus will be a challenge
- 'won't speculate' on whether will reach surplus
- govt to focus on controlling spending
- exchange rate still a headwind for economy, exporters
- tax revenue may be less than forecast this year
- economic outlook positive compared with other developed economies
- growth expected at more normal levels, reflecting lower dairy prices, global outlook
- half-yr economic fiscal update to be on Dec. 16
AceTraderFx Oct 8: Intra-Day News and Views(USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
08 Oct 2014 02:20GMT
USD/JPY - ..... Dlr pares Tue's losses in Tokyo trading and staged a strong bounce from intra-day bottom at 107.76 to 108.44.
Although st specs sold the pair at 108.19 in Australia on stop hunting, price briefly fell below o/n NY low at 107.82 to 107.76. However, buyers quickly emerged and lifted the dlr.
The pair continued to climb just ahead of Tokyo open by Japanese names on 'bargain hunting' as sub-108.00 looked cheap to Japanese importers, price later climbed to 108.44 before easing.
Last night the Federal Reserve is prepared to adjust its approach to raising U.S. interest rates, when the time comes, depending on the reaction of financial markets, New York Fed President William Dudley said on Tuesday.
"The trickiest part will be, some things are just not knowable right now, and one thing is exactly how the financial markets will react to the process of monetary policy normalization," he said at a college here.
The central bank will "adjust the pace with which we'll do it, the way in which we do it, depending on how circumstances evolve," Dudley added.
Wednesday will see the release of UK BRC shop price index, Japan current account, China HSBC services PMI, Swiss unemployment, Canada housing starts and U.S. FOMC minutes.
AceTraderFx Oct 8: Intra-Day News and Views (EUR/USD)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
08 Oct 2014
EUR/USD - ..... The single currency continued to swing wildly in Tuesday's volatile trading. Despite staging a rebound from Asian low at 1.2605 to 1.2665 in Europe, offers below previous day's 1.2675 high checked intra-day gain n euro bears gave the apir another bashing after downbeat German industrial orders, euro fell to session lows of 1.2584 after tripping stops below 1.26000, however, renewed buying emerged n helped price ratchet higher in choppy fashion to a high of 1.2682.
Although st specs bot euro due to renewed dlr's weakness in yen ahead of Asian open n pushed price to 1.2683, another round of selling quickly emerged at Asian open n pressured euro to 1.2633 ahead of Tokyo lunch session.
Looks like we have seen an intra-day high for now n consolidation with downside bias is seen until European open. No eco data is due out today, so order flows would influence intra-day price movement. Offers are tipped at 1.2650/55 n more above with some stops touted above 1.2690. Some bids (not large) are reported at 1.2610-00 and more with stops below 1.2580, suggesting euro would remain under pressure in the near term.