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Hey Lep
If it's not to much trouble, I'd love to know exactly what your entry rules are for M15, based on the chart you posted and which indicators you have changed or are using differently?
Thanks
WayneSure thing, its still a work in progress though. I am using your Swing zig zag with laguerre RSI indicator with a setting of 0.7.
My entry rules are simple enough. For longs I wait until a get a swingZZ dot and the laguerre is bottomed out completely. For exits I wait until a get an opposite swingZZ dot then I'm out, most times at profit. For shorts its the opposite. If I am going to be away from my computer for a long time I will set a conservative take profit level based on support/resistance.
There are a lot of trades in between the ones I take, but I am using the laguerre as my filter for swingZZ so that keeps me out.
The laguerre is fairly good at indicating a trend exhaustion, sometimes it is wrong though and trend keeps on going, but if that happens we average down. I will add positions at support/resistance or the Fibs I have drawn because the trend will reverse but we just don't know when and how much.
I don't see how trading this type of system without averaging down. Its a system based purely on picking tops and bottoms, but you WILL get burned from time to time but the averaging down keeps you from getting burned too bad.
I'll post a pick of the last two trades on the geppy. The first one was a long that I closed for about 130 pips. The 2nd trade is a short I am still in. I have already averaged down once since the trend kept trucking.
MP
Many thanks for your reply to my question regarding gbp/usd . Your explanation
was exactly the info I was looking for and your later reply about average down
cleared that up for me as well. Sorry for delay in saying thanks but have been at work.
Kind Regards
Geoff
=========================================
Please dont ever apologize for not understanding --- more people actually ask questions and the more there will be who understand
quite literally, there are HUNDREDS of ways to trade anything and "averaging" down or "buy the dips" is one of them.
it simply means that if you are holding a long position, and the price is dropping, you buy the next lowest support area (the next DOT formed lower) and essentially do that till the stupid thing actually reverses back to the upside ---- what this does is LOWER your basis price for the original long, giving you a VERY good chance at increasing your profit (your "basis" price is now MUCH lower than originally) and if worse comes to worse (which should NOT happen with the ziggies) you will get out with no loss. It is often considered a defensive play, but I consider it extremely offensive as i now own more shares of the same currency at a lower price than originally and therefore stand to make a larger profit.
naturally, this is carried out with NO stoploss, or you will end up a loser instead of a winner.
of course, in a short position, simply hold everything upside down !
THE ONE THING TO WATCH IS THE TIME OF DAY ---- the mkts "usually" reverse at 10 am, est time "ish" and again at NOON, est --- then the 5 pm rollover and then the Japanese, aussies and chinese hit the currency, with activity at 10:30 pm and midnite, est ---- AND THEN EUROPE !
mpmp....thanks so much for your reply. It is crystal clear now.
Trend
MP, I am looking forward to seeing your trend indicator.
I have been using the attached Non-lag MA bar with a QQE. The reason for using the MTF bar is that if you only use the current timeframe non-lag MA it can be early and false - if you use it combined with at least one or two higher timeframes, plus a QQE cross after the Zig Zag I think you are laughing. Any opinions?
I also attach a zigzag that has fibo lines attached to it, but it is a longer time zig zag (like in Big Bear's) rather than a Swing one like here. However, if they both line up together it can be very useful.
Paul.
Mp -- Do Fibs Work With This ?
ABSOLUTELY !!
as ive said about GU, OFTEN you will get a "go" on the dots and the price starts up, and moves a bit more and youre suddenly feeling like the world is your oyster AND THEN it moves down to support once again !
NOW, if you are playing the indicated trend, you can do two things --- one is to simply remain in the trade because IT WILL go for the upside target, and another might be SELLING your long position and then going short back to support (what the "go" dot reads as a price !) OR, you could HOLD your long and take a short position back to support also --- your choice of methods !
OH YEAH --- I use fibs to determine this and have found THAT A 15 percent FIB is USUALLY the reversal point !
OTHER WORDS -- if youre holding a LONG on the H1 or H4 and the price moves up to the 15% FIB, holds, runs sideways, and then drops, ITS GOING BACK TO SUPPORT (THE "DOT "!) TO FORM A DBL BTM ! there are cases where it will actually go below that dot (which would be shown by the silverlining arrows) but in general, it simply formas a dbl bottom AND THEN GOES ALL THE WAY UP !
enjoy and trade well
mp
Azmel,Lepricus
Now about stop loss i won't let my trades go forever if it's on the minus side. I'll look if the resistance/support at the zigzag that was broken (the one i thought will not be broken) and start a counter trade from the point of the break.
Starting a counter trade is like freezing the loss on that point and giving you another chance for fixing the problems. (or aggravating things
))
If it's going to break suports/resistances in the opsite direction i close them both. (the loss will be only the diference between them +/- some spread)
Anyway if you can combine these things with looking for the same setups on higher tf than the chance for this to happen is even smaller.
Now what Kamper strategy has is that swing_zigzag, the trend indicator and the resistance and support added later. I think that one can do the same trick with whatever zigzag,trend indicator and support resistance.
If anyone knows a better trend indicator i would be interested because the indicator used here is not so good. (in my oppinion)
P.S take into consideration that not breaking suport/resistance means -direction change.
-breaking support/resistances inverts them. suport will be resistance and resistance -> suport.
Thanks, Victor=============================================
my thoughts completely victor.
REMEMBER, the zigzag trend is (can i say "never" ?) wrong, BUT it can be early, and that takes us into the averaging down situation that margin wise, can be easily covered by taking the counter trade as it moves down as has been stated by me and zmax (and anyone i missed --- Im beginning to see an interrelationship between dot color and moves that dont immediately change direction, but need a spot more time to verify it
averaging down "usually" does not have to be done, but without the complete gift of prophesy, it is best as you will be sitting there, watching the silly trade for who knows how many hours, and when it comes back into profit range, it will prob be a breakeven or 2 pip gain without the "averaging down" --- with it, the gains can be substantial !
Ive noticed, "on average" that GU will retrace back from a drop or from a rise by 50% (often more, but 50 is safe !) and all one has to do is average down enough to cover you to that 50% point, for you to break even -- remember the time of day, and take your averaging trades then, as it should be the highest or lowest price for the currency !
Most of this, as has been posted, can be eliminated by sticking with the higher timeframes as the shorter timeframes often give shorter moves that "rookies" will prob not be able to follow easily ! The disadvantage of the higher timeframes are higher drawdowns, as people are learning and the very reason why i say NO stoplosses.
IF THE H1 ZIGGY SHOWS AN UPTREND, THEN BY GOLLY THERE WILL BE AN UPTREND, its just a matter of what time it will happen, which is usually the 12 oclock reversals ---- at 10 AM, EST, for instance, let us imagine an H1 downtrend formed --- dollars to doughnuts you will not see that ACTUALLY reverse till noon --- fake reverses yes, but not the real one !
wild and wolly times can set off the zigzag (unfortunately, it cant yet tell whats coming further down the road), but I have a "trend indicator" thats as good as the best, I would imagine --- will post it later today, when all of my fits are finished with their trip to the shan !
enjoy and trade well
I understand what is meant with taking the opposite trade if the dot continues to re-paint, but I am unsure what is meant by averaging down. I apologize in advance for my ignorance. Great thread guys with a lot of new ideas for me! Chris
=========================================
Please dont ever apologize for not understanding --- more people actually ask questions and the more there will be who understand
quite literally, there are HUNDREDS of ways to trade anything and "averaging" down or "buy the dips" is one of them.
it simply means that if you are holding a long position, and the price is dropping, you buy the next lowest support area (the next DOT formed lower) and essentially do that till the stupid thing actually reverses back to the upside ---- what this does is LOWER your basis price for the original long, giving you a VERY good chance at increasing your profit (your "basis" price is now MUCH lower than originally) and if worse comes to worse (which should NOT happen with the ziggies) you will get out with no loss. It is often considered a defensive play, but I consider it extremely offensive as i now own more shares of the same currency at a lower price than originally and therefore stand to make a larger profit.
naturally, this is carried out with NO stoploss, or you will end up a loser instead of a winner.
of course, in a short position, simply hold everything upside down !
THE ONE THING TO WATCH IS THE TIME OF DAY ---- the mkts "usually" reverse at 10 am, est time "ish" and again at NOON, est --- then the 5 pm rollover and then the Japanese, aussies and chinese hit the currency, with activity at 10:30 pm and midnite, est ---- AND THEN EUROPE !
mp
MP, I am looking forward to seeing your trend indicator.
I have been using the attached Non-lag MA bar with a QQE. The reason for using the MTF bar is that if you only use the current timeframe non-lag MA it can be early and false - if you use it combined with at least one or two higher timeframes, plus a QQE cross after the Zig Zag I think you are laughing. Any opinions?
I also attach a zigzag that has fibo lines attached to it, but it is a longer time zig zag (like in Big Bear's) rather than a Swing one like here. However, if they both line up together it can be very useful.
Paul.======================================================
i use TWO ziggies --- one is box stock and the other is a HALF value -- the half value tends to point out the shorter moves contained within the longer moves, and as you say, if both come to the same point, you go home a winner !
havent looked at the indicators, but will
will prep the instructions for (after 5pm rollover) the MACD and MA crosses indicator that helps with trend and early warnings of a trend change.
mp
easier for me to just send it as a jpeg than to describe at this point --- notice when putting all indicators in one panel you have to set each indicator in the "apply to" box to "first indicators data" --- when you are finished with all indicators and the MACD (which is the first indicator you put up) you switch them all to their normal "apply to", which is usually "close".
in mine, the purple line is the MACD signal line, and a quick look will tell you if youre trending up or down --- and above the 50 ma is bullish and below is bearish, naturally !
a few days of watching it is all the manual youll need (especially as im to lazy to write one)
ON THE DOUBLE CHARTS, rookies should note that the trend is about to change on the H1 while on the M1, you see in closer detail what its doing, having hit the top point (agrees with the top dot on the H1, has started down and stopped at a lower point. One will figure it will go up now for anyone scalping this move, and the final jpeg shows this same move, just a bit down the road which shows we will go up again, BUT NOT AS HIGH, and then drop TO A LOWER POINT. --- this is known as a currency making LOWER highes and LOWER lows, and is our way of saying its in a downtrend, which you could see if you drew trendlines at the top points and the bottom points.
The OVERWHELMING advantage of seeing the blue dot with a silver trend or lining arrow pointing to a higher value is you KNOW if you entered long in error at that point, once the M15 goes thru its cycle, it will come back up to that higher point, but if you had a stoploss, you would be wiped out before that happened --- once you understand what the prices are doing hopefully you will never lose to a stoploss again !
more on that later
mp
Hi Mp
Could you tell us what this silver trend/lining arrow indicator is, what it tells
us and where do we find it? Really find your posts very educational.
Kind regards
Geoff