Goblin "BiPolar" Edition - page 50

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xxDavidxSxx:
...I ran all my forward testing on 1% risk and had no problems. So I am running now on .5% (1/2)percent risk, to be on the safe side....Dave

Well, 0.5% risk setting is an illusion, since you are not using stops. This setting only determines lot size, but not risk!

 
faifarni:
I appreciate the posts David...
smeden:
Me too. What a punk

thanks guys for the support. Next time I won't dignify that guy with a response.

Dave

 
alassio:
Well, 0.5% risk setting is an illusion, since you are not using stops. This setting only determines lot size, but not risk!

correct....Risking a true .5% would not bring any returns worth the trouble. Unless you have a 50k account.

5 open orders will have .3 mini lots total in the market. (per 1k in account)<---edited

I said before.....if you chose to run a martingale type of management be prepared to risk 2/3 account.

I could bust the whole account and wont care.

One of the first rules you learn when introduced to trading.....do not put money in your trade account you can't afford to lose. If you can't afford to lose your whole account then you shouldn't be trading.

A martingale style ea is not for every one.

But 3 months of forward testing tells me it will work. Only thing left to do is run it on real money.

Also remember the greater the risk the greater the reward. Donald Trump has gone bankrupt several times, because he is not afraid of risk. And he always recovers. Also because he is not afraid of risk.

I produced positive cyberia trader results with real money. I was heavily critisized untill certian people saw it working on real money.

And I will do the same here.

Dave

 

Expectation of Goblin Strategy

xxDavidxSxx:
correct....Risking a true .5% would not bring any returns worth the trouble. Unless you have a 50k account.

...But 3 months of forward testing tells me it will work. Only thing left to do is run it on real money.

...Dave

Sorry if I seem to be very picky about some details, but I want to clearly separate things out.

Now to add something constructive ... Attached you find an Excel sheet that computes the probabilities and the expectation of the Goblin strategy up to 5 orders per trade. All yellow cells are input cells. The most important one is the "Edge" cell, telling you how much better your entry method is than purely random (50%).

As you can expect, expectation=0 for edge=0. Playing around with the inputs such as Pips, T/P, S/L one can easily see that even with a random entry, one can increase success probability as far as we want. But finally, when loss hits you, the account may be wiped out ...

However, when edge > 0 (e.g. 2%), one should try to maximize expectation. First one can do this by playing around with my Excel sheet on a simulation basis, later test results from backtest/forward test can be used too. Here it soon becomes clear that using very high stop/losses are not at all optimal! Try to find some settings (pips, t/p, s/l and lot allocation) that give you an expectation > 3% ! Note that we even haven't touched the entry signal, we are only playing around with the exits. Different settings make a huge difference here ...

Files:
goblin_probabilities.zip  3 kb
 
xxDavidxSxx:
thanks guys for the support. Next time I won't dignify that guy with a response. Dave

good. dont. your still an arogant dick who ruin it for all of us and we dont forget. if you think you have support it only from a few helpless leachers, dork.

 
shibeng:
good. dont. your still an arogant dick who ruin it for all of us and we dont forget. if you think you have support it only from a few helpless leachers, dork.

Shibeng, it looks to me that you are more influenced by the Kuka_Fund guy than any common sense.

What happened on this thread between David and Bluto happened, you need to move on like the rest of us.

The reason why David has my support and others is because, for all his faults, he is putting his money where his mouth is and moving from demo trading onto trading the EA with real money.

Many people on this forum will never move to that stage with any EA!

So, I think it is time that you get all your anger out and just let it go....

 

Here is a shot of the account. Showing the deposit + 45$ promo from fxdd.

For all the skeptics out there....notice the first account and last account are real money accounts. I opened it in my parents name and next I will open one for my daughter and another for my brother. Then one more in someone elses name so I can run all five accounts from one platform. Need 5 before fxdd will allow control from one platform. Not sure if they can all be in the same name. So I open them all in family's names.

Dave

Files:
bipoler_real_money.gif  77 kb
 
Maji:
Phorex Phreak,

Interesting idea.

Can you please elaborate a little more or start another thread discussing the same? Why are you choosing the lot sizes as described? Also, can you elaborate on the profit taking levels?

Thanks.

maji,

the lot sizes chosen are small and are fibonacci sequentially based, in order to cover BIG market swings with martingale type of EA's you have to cover a broad range of the market like around 2000 pips, thats very safe in that i have never seen historically where a pair will move 2000 pips without a 200 or 300 pip retracement, as for the TP's, the first value is a take profit of 200 pips and the second exact value is a take profit of 300 pips, once the TP is reached the grid re-starts over and a new......on the eur/usd for example you have one EA going long and another EA going short, so that no matter where the market is going, your covered, when the EA executes a TP on either side, that side starts a new and the side that hasnt taken profit keeps going until it takes profit, and so on and so on......

http://phorex-phreak.blogspot.com/

 

week 1 bipoler

Files:
bipoler_week_1.htm  42 kb
 

A good week.

A good week. +7% (from 1500USD).

105USD are promo (+45USD and +60USD).

Is this with the version from the first Post and with You settings?

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