FXiGoR DYNAMIC Breakout system on Daily Average Range - page 3
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about the backtesting with MetaStock professional:
I wil not be possible to do a reliable backtest with MS because I forgot that MS can only look to the close of a bar and not when a certain price is hit.
The fact that my data is mostly on 30min charts it will absolutly not be reliable because as we all know in a 30min bar price can move a lott to the close of a bar...
regards...iGoR
about the backtesting with MetaStock professional:
I wil not be possible to do a reliable backtest with MS because I forgot that MS can only look to the close of a bar and not when a certain price is hit.
The fact that my data is mostly on 30min charts it will absolutly not be reliable because as we all know in a 30min bar price can move a lott to the close of a bar...
regards...iGoRThank you iGoR for your patience in explaining the system. I have gone over it several times. Please can you summarize the rules ie entry/ exit/SL/TP etc
again
Thanks
Igor,
Thanks for introducing the system. However, a couple of things is still not clear to me. I hope you or someone else can answer my questions.
1. What is the time (in GMT or Central Euro Time) when the calcs are made and the orders put in?
2. The distance to entry from open, stop and trailing stops are all 0.5 times the average range... is that correct?
3. Trades are closed, pendings cancelled etc. at 18:00 CET... please confirm.
Thanks for your help.
Trading times
Igor,
Thanks for introducing the system. However, a couple of things is still not clear to me. I hope you or someone else can answer my questions.
1. What is the time (in GMT or Central Euro Time) when the calcs are made and the orders put in?
2. The distance to entry from open, stop and trailing stops are all 0.5 times the average range... is that correct?
3. Trades are closed, pendings cancelled etc. at 18:00 CET... please confirm.
Thanks for your help.I believe I can answer one of your questions. I know Igor feels very strongly about trading only between the times of the open of the London market and no later than the first 2 hours of the US session. He has done extensive testing along with several others to determine that most systems cannot remain profitable in the long run if traded outside of this timeframe. I hope this helps.
@ IgorFX - Hello Igor, I miss you all on the TSR forum but it is very difficult to catch being in the EST time zone. Truly remarkable and I know I speak for all when I say thank you for everything.
I have the full version of forex tester and I would be willing to manully trade these rules. I read over them and was a little confused so I skipped it with the intention of getting back to it. Here I am. I will review the rules carefully and get back to you with questions. Thanks again.
The entrys for the FXiGoR DBO system will be discussed and called live in the TSR Trend Slope Retracement room on Paltalk.
results for 2/10/2006
EUR/USD = + 46 pips
USD/CHF = + 53 pips
GBP/USD = + 118 pips
_________________
Total = + 217 pips
Total on last 3 days +454 pips
iGoR
statistics
statistics: From 01/01/2005 to today 03/10/2006, 455 trading days:
Average Daily High - Daily Low:
EURUSD : 104 pips
Case 1, 216 trading days over 100 pips: 47.5%
Case 2, 94 trading days between 80 to 100 pips: 20.66%
Case 3, 107 trading days between 60 to 80 pips: 23.52%
Case 4, 42 trading days less than 60 pips: 9.23%
You could get about 80% of win on Case 1, 70% of win on Case 2, 55% of win on Case 3, 10% of win on Case 4. So total win odds is arround: 66%
Pretty good
, I think just use simple method 1, don't need setup reverse order after. just take 30 pips of 66% trading days, and stoploos 50 pips of 33% trading days is good enough. That is a possibility to generate about 1000 pips per year per currency pair. And another beauty of this statistics is there is only once happened continuous 4 days less than 80 pips for last 2 years. That means we can use MM and odds to take more profit. for example double order lots after 3 continuous days less 80 pips.
Simple logic can make more money
I will make one EA to test this stratage.
statistics: From 01/01/2005 to today 03/10/2006, 455 trading days:
Average Daily High - Daily Low:
EURUSD : 104 pips
Case 1, 216 trading days over 100 pips: 47.5%
Case 2, 94 trading days between 80 to 100 pips: 20.66%
Case 3, 107 trading days between 60 to 80 pips: 23.52%
Case 4, 42 trading days less than 60 pips: 9.23%
You could get about 80% of win on Case 1, 70% of win on Case 2, 55% of win on Case 3, 10% of win on Case 4. So total win odds is arround: 66%
Pretty good
, I think just use simple method 1, don't need setup reverse order after. just take 30 pips of 66% trading days, and stoploos 50 pips of 33% trading days is good enough. That is a possibility to generate about 1000 pips per year per currency pair. And another beauty of this statistics is there is only once happened continuous 4 days less than 80 pips for last 2 years. That means we can use MM and odds to take more profit. for example double order lots after 3 continuous days less 80 pips.
Simple logic can make more money
I will make one EA to test this stratage.Hi qldmatt,
Thank you for your posting.
But I looked over it with my friend Pipeline and we don't understand what you mean by it or how did you get those numbers. Was it true some testing?...
And you say "no reverse"... fact is that you don't know after a few hours after the break out of the first 1/2 of the dayrange that price will continue that direction. It happens a lot that after the first break out price reverses and places the other 1/2 of the day range at the other side of the first 1/2.
To explain with an example : daily range = 100 So 1/2 of that = 50.
Price takes of at 1.1100. It goes to 1.1150 there you have your long entry. Price goes further up but on 1.1160 it reverses. Then comes back down and desides that the other 40 pips (average potential to put it under the 1.1100. So at the end ot the day you would see in AVERAGE that price COULD end at 1.1060. So if one does not reverse you have your stoploss hit. If one takes reverse trades you will take 40 pips loss ( 1.1160 - 50 = 1.1110 --entry @ 1.1150 = 40pips) there you reverse and you end up at 1.1060 wich is a total of 100 pips average day range and would give you 50 pips profit on your reverse. Total + 10 pips profit instead of 50 pips loss.
And as I say these reversals happens a lot because after moving the first half of the potential average daily range it is not shure were the next half will be placed (under or above the first half). Aspecialy when the 1 st half is made around the opening price ex. opening price 1.1100 and price made a low at 1.1075 and a high at 1.1125
So the reverse orders are an essential part for the succes of this system.
regards..iGoR
PS. If you build an EA for this system, it would be nice to first make the rules as how I explained and then take it further from there as the way you see it... TNX a lot in advance...
Igor,
Due to my work schedule I can't attend the Paltalk room. Can you please answer my questions that I am reposting here for your convenience?
1. What is the time (in GMT or Central Euro Time) when the calcs are made and the orders put in?
2. The distance to entry from open, stop and trailing stops are all 0.5 times the average range... is that correct?
3. Trades are closed, pendings cancelled etc. at 18:00 CET... please confirm.
Thanks in advance.
Dear iGoR,
I am a full time programmer and database administrator.
I imported all the daily data into SQL database, and get the result from SQL query for how many days over 100 pips, and other fingers. So that is the true fingers.
And I normally use 2 years M1 data to test strategy use SQL database and ASP. That is much faster than MT4 back-testing and more accurate close to the fact. If good result can be produced, than do the MT4 coding, that is easiest part.
For my understanding your strategy is take the most possible long or short position whatever price goes 50 pips within a day, for example EURUSD yesterday (02/10/06) from 1.2672 upto 1.2722, and then you are assume 1.2672 is the lowest point for EURUSD that day, and assume that day's range is 100 pips, and still assume most of time the price will not go to another way done to 1.2672 (if happened go to next step below), so you take long on 1.2722 and set S/L at 1.2672 and with Trailing Stop 40. that will be your first trading that day, is that right?
Again, you can enter the first trade on 440 trading days of 455 trading days.97%
The next step with your strategy is if the first trade ending loss and than take a reverse trade at whatever first trade ending point, so that will be your second trading that day and whatever happened, the second trade will be closed at 18:00 cet time(why that time, please explain), or there is some extra rules for second trade ? Please explain.
I need to calculate what is the per centage of second trade happened, because i think the second trade is more risky than the first trade, this strategy is based on daily range more than 80 pips (that is happened 68% of 455 trading days), and second trade is nothing related daily range, more is like gamble the odds (50% x 50% assume two trade both loss odds is 25%). I will test this strategy later to see is that better just take 30 T/P on first trade and forget about reverse or we do need gamble the odds.
Again, thanks very much for sharing your strategy. Hope to talk you soon.
Sorry about my English, that is not my mother language.
Thanks
Matt