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Forecast and levels for Dax Index - page 2

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Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.18 14:37

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Dax Index (based on the article)


Dax Index"The DAX will not embark on a big move by itself, material moves will unfold in other parts of the globe not called Germany. Looking to potential catalysts, we are left wanting as nothing of significance is penciled in on the economic calendar. This doesn’t mean, however, that the market can’t move on its own accord and unforeseen catalysts don’t show up."


Yasin Oksuz
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Yasin Oksuz  
İ THİNK DAX WİLL perform better than any markets..They r immune to deflation somehow.
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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.25 12:42

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Dax Index (based on the article)


Dax Index"Last week, we placed a lot of emphasis on the DAX for directional cues in general risk trends given it had at that time the clearest technical formation of the major indices. The rising wedge formation broke to the downside, but the DAX quickly found a low early Wednesday and recovered to close out the week. The rally doesn’t fully undermine the bearish break, but if it doesn’t turn lower soon we will need to consider alternatives. The Wednesday low carved out a lower low from 3/8, and with a downturn soon we could have a lower high in place from the 3/16 peak. In this scenario, the price sequence for the month of March will begin taking on the shape of a ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern. We would of course need to see a break of the neckline and drop below 11850 before getting the green light. On weakness below last week’s low we will look to 11722, then nothing substantial arrives until the February low of 11480."


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Sergey Golubev, 2017.04.01 11:48

Weekly Outlook: 2017,April 02 - April 09 (based on the article)



Currencies traded in a mixed manner in the last week of Q1. A rate decision in Australia, the FOMC meeting minutes a full build-up to the all-important Non-Farm Payrolls stand out. These are the top events on forex calendar.


    1. US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Monday, 14:00. Manufacturing PMI is expected to decline to 57.2 in March.
    2. Australian rate decision: Tuesday, 3:30.
    3. US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: Wednesday, 12:15. ADP report is expected to show a 191,000 jobs gain in March.
    4. US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Wednesday, 14:00. Non-Manufacturing PMI is expected to reach 57.1 this time.
    5. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 14:30.
    6. US FOMC Meeting Minutes: Wednesday, 18:00. Minutes from the Fed’s rate hike meeting in March will be released in April, providing an in-depth account on the reasons behind the 0.25 percentage point rate rise.
    7. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30.Jobless claims is expected to reach 251,000 this week.
    8. Canadian employment data: Friday, 12:30. Economists expect Canadian job creation of 5,700 and a rise to 6.7% in the unemployment rate.
    9. US Non-Farm Employment Payrolls: Friday, 12:30.US jobs report for March is expected to show a job gain of 176,000 while the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.7%.

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    Sergey Golubev, 2017.04.15 10:52

    Weekly Fundamental Forecast for DAX Index (based on the article)


    DAX"All economic data set to be released next week is of the ‘low’ to ‘medium’ impact variety. Since very nearly touching off at the record high of 12391 set in 2015 the DAX has been in pullback mode, but if it doesn’t soon turn higher from trend support the pullback could turn into an outright bearish decline. Given the way U.S. equities are heading, an outright bearish decline is looking like a probable scenario."


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    Sergey Golubev, 2017.04.20 17:52

    Dax Index - daily bullish with the secondary correction; 11,980 level is the key (based on the article)

    Daily price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the primary bullish area of the chart. The price was bounced from 12,411 resistance level to below for the correction to be started with 11,980 support level to be broken for the correction to be continuing and with 11,878 bearish reversal support level as a nearest daily target.


    • "Should the market get a little pep in its step, we’re looking to 12050 as resistance, and then the underside of the broken channel, which at this time comes in at over 12100. On the hourly chart the DAX is running lower in a descending channel, which we will use as a short-term guide; stay below the upper parallel and a bearish bias remains intact, while a jump above will warrant consideration for alternative paths. The lower parallel may act as minor support with further selling, but the next significant swing point comes in at 11850, with 11916 as a possible stopping point along the way. Below 11850, we look for 11722 to come into play."
    • "All-in-all, the game-plan is to continue to focus on short-term entries from the short-side, but should the DAX violate the current bearish posturing we will be quick to change gears."


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    Sergey Golubev, 2017.04.29 17:31

    Weekly Fundamental Forecast for DAX Index (based on the article)


    DAX Index - "Following last Monday’s surge, the DAX did a whole lot of nothing, trading bullishly quiet. Meaning, a market which doesn’t quickly begin retracing a large gain has an increased likelihood of making another push higher, sooner rather than later. Maintaining above the prior highs at 12375/91 is the most bullish scenario, with leniency towards testing the gap-day low of 12289. Should the market fall back into the gap, though; risk will quickly rise of seeing it fill back down to 12048. At this time, we look for the market to hold and push higher. Looking higher, resistance first arrives at last week’s high of 12486, the August 2016 top-side trend-line, and then the trend-line running over peaks since late-February."


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    Sergey Golubev, 2017.05.06 13:37

    Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Dax Index (based on the article)


    Dax Index"Front and center to start the week will be the outcome of the second and final round of the French elections; Macron is a heavy favorite to win. Will the CAC and risk-on respond positively to the ‘expected’ outcome, or will it be a “sell the news” scenario? We’re about to find out. If Le Pen pulls off the upset, it’s safe to say risk markets will be moving in reverse. Looking beyond the election, ‘high’ impact events include Draghi speaking in Dutch Parliament on Wednesday and the release of German 1Q GDP on Friday."


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    Sergey Golubev, 2017.05.17 13:16

    Dax Index - waiting for the bullish trend to be continuing or for the secondary correction to be started (based on the article)

    Daily price is on bullish ranging within 12,839 resistance and 12,518 support level waiting for the bullish trend to be continuing or for the secondary correction to be started.


    • "The market has taken back most of the ~100-point gap, and is also trying to recapture that broken trend-line. Looking for points of resistance: On a sustained rally, first up is the gap-fill and the under-side of the broken wedge, followed by the record high at 12842."
    • "Should we see the market fail to push beyond the gap and roll over we will look back towards the session low at 12770 first. A break below the intra-day low brings the 12660 area into play."


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    Sergey Golubev, 2017.05.19 15:42

    Dax Index - bullish ranging within narrow s/r levels (based on the article)

    Daily price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart. The price is on ranging within 12,843 resistance for the bullish trend to be continue and 12,491 support for the secondary correction to be started.


    • "In the process, the market also closed well below the February top-side trend-line it was leaning on as support for the week or so before. So far, yesterday’s reversal day is showing a little follow-through this morning, but we’ll be quickly looking at 12660 as a hurdle to overcome if the DAX is to see the bounce grow legs and become a full-blown rally. For now, it’s resistance until it’s not. A move beyond 12660 will bring attention towards the underside of the Feb trend-line, and possibly new highs."
    • "It’s still a little unclear whether this week’s down-move is all we’ll see, or whether another wave of selling will push the market lower. The thinking on this end is we will see another leg lower before making a serious attempt to resume higher. It’d be preferable, too, as key levels of support have not yet been met. Ideally, we see a move to the old record highs under 12400 and/or (depending on whether they collide for confluence or not) the trend-line rising up from December under the April swing-low."
    • "Getting to the point: 12660 is our focal point as resistance; maintain below there on a closing basis and the market will continue to be vulnerable to further selling. A move beyond will bring the underbelly of the Feb trend-line into play, but may also mean the market is gearing up for another run at record levels. Yesterday’s low at 12490 is our first level of support followed by much more significant support around 12390/75 and the December/April trend-line."


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