Stocks in French Election
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Sergey Golubev, 2017.05.06 13:35
Weekly Fundamental Forecast for CAC 40 (based on the article)
CAC 40 - "The election. Will we see a Macron victory as expected or a surprise win by Le Pen? In the likely event we see Macron become the next president of France, a gap higher in the CAC is a reasonable expectation – but will it hold if it does? The CAC finished last week with a sharp rally, rising to its best levels since January 2008. The 7%+ run since the Friday before the first-round election is setting the market up for a ‘sell-the-news’ gap on a Macron victory. If the market gaps up and then fills the void it doesn’t necessarily mean the overall run higher will have come to an end, but a short-term retracement could be in order following a ‘euphoric’ rise. If Le Pen wins? The CAC will likely have the hurts put on it as market participants haven’t priced in such an outcome. The sell-off would likely be quite violent."
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