EURUSD Technical Analysis 2016, 30.10 - 06.11: bearish with ranging rally - page 2

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.03 16:42

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and USD/CAD : The Institute for Supply Management Non-Manufacturing PMI

2016-11-03 14:00 GMT | [USD - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers, excluding the manufacturing industry.

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From official report:

"The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The NMI® registered 54.8 percent in October, 2.3 percentage points lower than the September reading of 57.1 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a slower rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index decreased to 57.7 percent, 2.6 percentage points lower than the September reading of 60.3 percent, reflecting growth for the 87th consecutive month, at a slower rate in October."

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EUR/USD M5: 16 pips range price movement by ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news events


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USD/CAD M5: 17 pips range price movement by ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news events


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.04 11:46

Trading News Events: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (adapted from dailyfx)

  • "A 175K expansion in U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) accompanied by a downtick in the jobless-rate may heighten the appeal of the greenback and spark a near-term pullback in EUR/USD should the report fuel speculation for an imminent Fed rate-hike."
  • "Despite the 8 to 2 split within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), Chair Janet Yellen and Co. appear to be following a similar path to 2015 as officials warn ‘that the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has continued to strengthen,’ and the dollar may outperform its major counterparts over the remainder of the year as the central bank takes a more collective approach in preparing U.S. households and businesses for higher borrowing-costs. However, a further reduction in the Fed’s long-run interest rate forecast may curtail the bullish outlook for the greenback as the committee argues ‘market-based measures of inflation compensation have moved up but remain low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months,’ and the permanent-voting members may continue to endorse a ‘gradual’ path in normalizing monetary policy as the central bank remains ‘data-dependent.’"


Bullish USD Trade: Employment Climbs 175K or Greater, Jobless Rate Narrows to 4.9%

  • "Need red, five-minute candle following the print to consider a short EUR/USD position."
  • "If market reaction favors a bullish dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position."
  • "Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward."
  • "Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit."
Bearish USD Trade: U.S. NFP Report Falls Short of Market Forecast
  • "Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade."
  • "Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction."


Daily price is located below Ichimoku cloud in the bearish area of the chart. The price is on local uptrend as the bear market rally to be started on Monday for 1.1125 resistance level to be testing for the secondary rally to be continuing. Ascending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to above, Trend Strength indicator and Absolute Strength indicator are estimating the trend as the rally with the possible daily bullish reversal.

  • If the price will break 1.1125 resistance level on close daily bar so the bear market rally will be continuing with 1.1216 re-enter target as a Senkou Span line value for the bullish reversal.
  • If price will break 1.0892 support on close daily bar so the primary bearish trend will be resumed with 1.0850 nearest bearish daily target.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.04 13:52

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CAD and GBP/USD : Non-Farm Payrolls

2016-11-04 12:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

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From official report:

"Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 161,000 in October, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in health care, professional and business services, and financial activities."

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EUR/USD M5: 20 pips range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events


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USD/CAD M5: 65 pips range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events


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GBP/USD M5: 25 pips range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2016.11.05 09:38

EUR/USD Turns Lower on Lackluster NFP Data (based on the article)


"The EUR/USD continues to trade lower despite the release of lackluster NFP figures. NFP release was expected at +175k, and was released at +161k an actual. The big surprise on the day was a revision of September’s employment figures to 191k. This revision was up from the reported 156K, causing US Dollar based pairs to rally."


"Technically, the EUR/USD may be seen below being rejected from a 50% Fibonacci retracement value at 1.1108. This line has been acting as resistance now for three consecutive sessions, and is measured by taking the distance between the August 18th high at 1.1366 and the current October low of 1.0850. If prices continue to trade below this value, traders may see this rejection as the resumption of an ongoing 4th quarter downtrend. However if prices can break above this point, it may solidify a broader EUR/USD retracement."


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