5% per month possible? - page 2
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Hey this is interesting. Please provide the links. I really want to see this. As for making 5% a month, you can make higher than that.
1) Trend following.
2) Tight stops (not too tight please . If I recall you use 15min charts so your stops shouldn't be that large)
3) Let your profits run, and be creative with breakeven tactics.
Your suggestions for trading are very much appreciated.
Actually, the market is trending less time than it is drifting.
Of course, when it is trending, the profit is phenomenal.
But my trend-following system whipsaws like hell when the market is not trending.
So I try to determine when it is in one state or the other, and deploy the appropriate system.
One of the tools to do this is most generously donated here...
https://www.mql5.com/en/code/9175
The link is http://charlestradingchallenge.blogspot.com/
Your suggestions for trading are very much appreciated.
Actually, the market is trending less time than it is drifting.
Of course, when it is trending, the profit is phenomenal.
But my trend-following system whipsaws like hell when the market is not trending.
So I try to determine when it is in one state or the other, and deploy the appropriate system.
One of the tools to do this is most generously donated here...
https://www.mql5.com/en/code/9175
When I was a broker, there was a day (once only) when I lost $150,000. It so happens that I was booked in for a stress test the same day. I passed the test with flying colours. Yes, I can handle a loss of $150,000 as easily as I can handle a profit of $150,000 – it’s not money, it’s a number on a piece of paper.
That’s where you and I differ. You saw your winnings at Blackjack as MONEY and you spent it on good wine, nice dinners and beautiful women (can you sense the envy?).
Anyhow, getting back to Kelly. In its simplest form, the equation is f=2p-1 where f is the fraction of your bankroll to risk and p is the probability of winning in an even-money event.
Would you call a position in forex with equal stoploss and take profit an even-money event? If so, then your probability of winning has to be 0.51 to double your initial risk of 2% of your bankroll as recommended by most gurus.
Can this be done?
All in the eye of the beholder I guess. Me losing $150,000 as a Broker would move me as much as that Back-Tester lost $150,000. If your employer had a policy of "Lose $150,000 then you're fired" then I'm sure that would have changed the stress level :). You didn't see it as money, I wonder if all your clients toke the same approach.
From what I can gather, you're around retirement age and playing Forex as recreational activity. Your approach to Risk and Reward would obviously differ from someone in his mid-20s looking to built wealth. The link that sparked your question refers to a Charles with an association with FAP. If it's the Charles of FAP I have tattoo in my skull from seeing him countless times when I do a Ea/Automation search in Google; then I'd say Sigh. Well, he Failed on the first attempt with $500 right.
If a fellow Card Counter said to me "hey Ubzen, I've had it with the Casino commercials of Tom and Mary turning $1000 into $100,000 in one day in High-Stakes. Today, I'm going up there and making it happen with $500". I should already know this Man plans on slapping MM and our dearest Kelly in the face.
So, Would I call a position in forex with equal stoploss and take profit an even-money event? In simple terms after you factor in Spreads, Yes. If you look at the theoretical example from my back-test again:
Average
profit trade 12000.53
loss trade -11331.95
That pretty much tells me that I'll need more than 50-50 for winning. If the average profit was say 10% more then I could get away with 50-50 for winning. Can this be done? This is where we may differ. I look at the back-test as it being done. If someone would have employed that strategy for that time-frame they would have made that return.
Before everyone starts sending me hate letters :). I don't expect results that worked in the past as guarantee for future returns. I guess the best Approach really is Writing a formula on a piece of paper Mathematically which works. Then Back & Forward testing it and it works. Kinda like how Trope did with blackjack and card-counting but how many of us have that kind of insight and ability?
edit* Oh, I almost forgot my dis-claimer. This is all in my humble opinions.
All in the eye of the beholder I guess. Me losing $150,000 as a Broker would move me as much as that Back-Tester lost $150,000. If your employer had a policy of "Lose $150,000 then you're fired" then I'm sure that would have changed the stress level :). You didn't see it as money, I wonder if all your clients toke the same approach.
From what I can gather, you're around retirement age and playing Forex as recreational activity. Your approach to Risk and Reward would obviously differ from someone in his mid-20s looking to built wealth. The link that sparked your question refers to a Charles with an association with FAP. If it's the Charles of FAP I have tattoo in my skull from seeing him countless times when I do a Ea/Automation search in Google; then I'd say Sigh. Well, he Failed on the first attempt with $500 right.
If a fellow Card Counter said to me "hey Ubzen, I've had it with the Casino commercials of Tom and Mary turning $1000 into $100,000 in one day in High-Stakes. Today, I'm going up there and making it happen with $500". I should already know this Man plans on slapping MM and our dearest Kelly in the face.
So, Would I call a position in forex with equal stoploss and take profit an even-money event? In simple terms after you factor in Spreads, Yes.
ubzen, I really enjoy our conversations.
The $150,000 was my own real money, not any employer's. What I mean is that I treat the money in my trading account as a "number on a piece of paper", otherwise the market fluctuations would drive me nuts.
When I pull out some funds, I chase a bargain like anybody else. I don't say "it's only a pip's worth" and squander money.
You are right, at 79 I am near retirement age. But my interest in forex is not "recreational". Having been involved in futures, I am professionally intrigued what makes this market tick.
Of course, I recognize many self-destructive habits in the participants that some of my clients had. But the forex market IS different.
Most if not all of the technical analysis comes from the equities and futures markets and I suspect does NOT apply to the forex market.
If that is the case, then what does apply? If I find the answer, I'll let you know. If you know the answer, please tell us.
In the meantime, I shall try to get my winning probability to 0.51 so I can double my 2% stake and reach 5% per month.
ubzen, I really enjoy our conversations.
The $150,000 was my own real money...
Woah... Hats off to you my friend :))). If I lost that kind of money, I'd be crying for Mama. I enjoy our conversations also. Coming from the blackjack world, and having to psychologically and mathematically resolve in my head. How the heck, can this Trope guy tell me the Casino's will always have the winning Probability of >0.51 (in most cases it's far greater than that) but I'm gonna become a Net winner. When I started winning more counting cards than free-willy gambling, it started to sink in. I wouldn't narrow my view to winning probability, IMO you can have negative winning probability and come out ahead. You just have to know how to setup and execute the math. Because I can't do the math with confidence, I depend on good old simulators, and look at the bottom line. Did it make money or not? I don't know with confidence what works, and even if I did, what works now may change in the future as the (house) changes the rules of the game.
Woah... Hats off to you my friend :))). If I lost that kind of money, I'd be crying for Mama. I enjoy our conversations also.
But isn't that the point of money management.... you only risk what you can afford to lose... and if your MM says 150k loss is affordable and to be expected, then no sweats... If you decided to punt your last 150k and lost well, that's different and frankly no point crying... it would be my own fault.
V
But isn't that the point of money management.... you only risk what you can afford to lose... and if your MM says 150k loss is affordable and to be expected, then no sweats... If you decided to punt your last 150k and lost well, that's different and frankly no point crying... it would be my own fault.
V
Everyone treats money management like it's an exact science. Not you Viffer but in general. The books all say Know your MM and without MM blah..blah...blah. I'd like to hope the $150,000 was only 1% of engcomp's risk capital. (already made the mistake of assuming it wasn't his real money, not gonna repeat that again). Hence that's why I'm laughing with him. In reality MM is No exact science. I've had to Plunder at what risk level is acceptable, conclusion, no one can answer this question for someone else. If I can afford to lose my last 150k could I call that MM? Meaning lose Today and Tomorrow i get a pay check from work. Kelly and MM is Only good for telling you at what point, you'll be over-betting or at what point return would skyrocket; nice if your goal is capital preservation or maximization. Doesn't tell you what point you're gonna feel unpleasant, hence cannot tell you what risk-of-ruin appropriate for you 10%, 1% or 0.1%. IMHO
Fair points all... I used to play a lot of online poker. Always played within my bankroll and moved up stakes as MM allowed. Whilst my MM allowed me to play 20/40 and I could hold my own at that level, I just couldn't get used to the monetary size of the swings base on the turn of a card. Psychologically, I valued the money more than MM suggested I should. So I dropped to a level where win or lose a hand, the amount didn't matter... So, I agree that afford it or not, 150k loss personally is going to make me sick up in my mouth a bit. But once your over the psycological bit, the math is pretty powerful.
I use Kelly, but not in the way recommended. Personally, I can't stomach the aggression of full Kelly and work with the more sedate 2% fixed risk. But my trend trades have 3 scale out targets, easy, medium and stretch. I hold my past success for each target, dynamically calculate a Kelly for each target reweight the results as a percentage of the 2% stake and use this number to apportion lot volume to scale out at each target point. I haven't decided if it's worth all the effort but I figured it was more fun to code than lot*0.33 :). Feedback to this approach is welcome.
V
The books all say Know your MM and without MM blah..blah...blah.
A good friend of mine is a professional gambler - poker, horses, blackjack, and more. He explained to me that he treats his gambling funds as if they belonged to an employer. He pays himself a weekly wage and expense allowance and an occasional bonus, which he saves in a superannuation account. Other than that, he doesn't touch his gambling funds. He says it would be like putting his hand in his employer's till. I think THAT is money management.
Good-One, as I've heard that one before. My favorite analogy is the Odyssey version. If you're familiar with the story, Odysseus ordered his men to bind him with ropes unto the ships bows. He wants to see & hear the Sirens sing but don't wanna end up like every fool who leaps into the ocean after them mesmerized by their lovely voices and beauty.
For me, once I read some-where that over-betting would zig-zag and inflate my wins and losses. And eventually would kill my bank-roll as a mathematical fact. That was it for Not following money management. The good thing was by this time, I'd had enough experience with wins, losses and swings. Sticking to under-betting however was not easy. This lead to my personal description of MM. "It like tipple-reinforced-lava-heated-chains which binds you from shooting yourself in the head." This is all old news to experienced risk-takers (like You and I) but newbies need to learn this the hard way.