Trading the News: U.S. Durable Goods Orders (based on dailyfx article)
A 1.0% rebound in U.S. Durable Goods Orders may prompt a bullish
reaction in the dollar as it raises the outlook for growth and
Why Is This Event Important:
Indeed, prospects for a stronger recovery may encourage the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)
to normalize policy sooner rather than later, and we may see Fed Chair
Janet Yellen continue to soften her dovish tone for monetary policy as a
growing number of central bank officials see a stronger recovery in
2014.However, the slowdown in private sector credit paired with the pullback
in consumer confidence may generate a dismal release, and another
decline in U.S. Durable Goods Orders may trigger a selloff in the
greenback as it limits the Fed’s scope to remove the zero-interest rate
policy (ZIRP) later this year or in early 2015.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish USD Trade: Demands Increase 1.0% or Greater
Demands for large-ticket items decline another 1.0% in January following
a revised 5.3% drop the month prior, while Non-Defense Capital Goods
Orders excluding Aircrafts, a proxy for business investments,
unexpectedly increased 1.7% amid forecasts for a 0.2% contraction.
Nevertheless, the initial reaction to the data print was short-lived,
with the EURUSD coming off of the 1.3650 region, and the reserve
currency continued to lose ground throughout the North American trade as
the pair closed at 1.3708.
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Something Interesting in Financial Video February 2014
newdigital, 2014.02.10 11:15
06: DURABLE GOODS
This is the 6th video in a series on economic reports created for all
markets, or for those who simply have an interest in economics. In this
lesson we cover the Durable Goods report.
Durable Goods Orders (DGO) is an
indicator of orders placed for relatively long lasting goods. Durable
goods are expected to last more than three years, e.g.: cars, furniture,
This indicator is important for the
market because it gives an idea of the consumers' confidence in the
current economic situation. Since durable goods are expensive, the
increase in the number of orders for them shows the willingness of
consumers to spend their money on them. Thus, the growth of this
indicator is a positive factor for economic development and leads to
growth of the national currency.
USDJPY M5 : 47 pips price movement by USD - Durable Goods Orders news event
EURUSD M5 : 32 pips price movement by USD - Durable Goods Orders news event :
EURUSD Technical Analysis (based on dailyfx article)
2013-03-26 03:30 GMT (or 04:30 MQ MT5 time) | [AUD - RBA Gov Stevens Speech]
Speech at the 17th Annual Credit Suisse Asian Investment Conference, in Hong Kong
RBA Chief Sees Encouraging Signs Of Broader Private Demand Growth
Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens said there is
encouraging early evidence that the so-called 'handover' from mining-led
demand growth to broader private demand growth is beginning.
He expects economic growth to continue and to strengthen a little later this year and pick up further during 2015.
outlook is, obviously, a balance between the large negative force of
declining mining investment and, working the other way, the likely pick
up in some other areas of demand helped by very low interest rates,
improved confidence and so on, as well as higher resource shipments,"
central banker said.
RBA, in its biannual Financial Stability
Report, cautioned that a cyclical upswing in housing prices when
interest rates are low cannot continue indefinitely.
present conditions in the housing market are not assessed as posing a
near-term risk to financial stability, the recent pick-up in momentum
warrants close monitoring.
The bank advised investors and owner-occupiers not to base their decisions on an extrapolation of recent outcomes.
What is the ’Best’ Time Frame to Trade? (based on dailyfx article)
One of the most important aspects of a trader’s success is the approach
being utilized to speculate in markets. Sometimes, certain approaches
just don’t work for certain traders. Maybe its personality or risk
characteristics; or perhaps the approach is just un-workable to begin
with.When using multiple time frame analysis, traders will look to use a
longer-term chart to grade trends and investigate the general nature of
the current technical setup; while utilizing a shorter-term chart to
‘trigger’ or enter positions in consideration of that longer-term setup.
We looked at one of the more common entry triggers in the article, MACD
as an Entry Trigger; but many others can be used since the longer-term
chart is doing the bulk of the ‘big picture’ analysisThe Long-Term Approach
Optimal Time Frames: Weekly, and Daily Chart
For some reason, many new traders do everything they can to avoid this
approach. This is likely because new, uninformed traders think that a
longer-term approach means it takes a lot longer to find profitability.
In most cases, this couldn’t be further from the truth.
By many accounts, trading with a shorter-term approach is quite a bit
more difficult to do profitably, and it often takes traders considerably
longer to develop their strategy to actually find profitability.
There are quite a few reasons for this, but the shorter the term, the
less information that goes into each and every candlestick. Variability
increases the shorter our outlooks get because we’re adding the limiting
factor of time.
There aren’t many successful scalpers that don’t know what to do on the
longer-term charts; and in many cases, day-traders are using the
longer-term charts to plot their shorter-term strategies.
All new traders should begin with a long-term approach; only getting
shorter-term as they see success with a longer-term strategy. This way,
as the margin of error increases with shorter-term charts and more
volatile information, the trader can dynamically make adjustments to
risk and trade management.
Traders utilizing a longer-term approach can look to use the weekly
chart to grade trends, and the daily chart to enter into positions.The ‘Swing-Trader’ Approach
Optimal Time Frames: Daily, and Four-Hour Charts
After a trader has gained comfort on the longer-term chart they can then
look to move slightly shorter in their approach and desired holding
times. This can introduce more variability into the trader’s approach,
so risk and money management should absolutely be addressed before
moving down to shorter time frames.
The Swing-Trader’s approach is a happy medium between a longer-term
approach, and a shorter-term, scalping-like approach. One of the large
benefits of swing-trading is that traders can get the benefits of both
styles without necessarily taking on all of the down-sides.
Swing-Traders will often look at the chart throughout the day in an
effort to take advantage of ‘big’ moves in the marketplace; and this
affords them the benefit of not having to watch markets continuously
while they’re trading. Once they find an opportunity or a setup that
matches their criteria for triggering a position, they place the trade
with a stop attached; and they then check back later to see the progress
of the trade.
In between trades (or checking the chart), these traders can go about living their lives.
A large benefit of this approach is that the trader is still looking at
charts often enough to seize opportunities as they exist; and this
eliminates one of the down-sides of longer-term trading in which entries
are generally placed on the daily chart.
For this approach, the daily chart is often used for determining trends
or general market direction; and the four-hour chart is used for
entering trades and placing positions.The Short-Term Approach (Scalping or Day-Trading)
Optimal Time Frames: Hourly, 15 minutes, and 5 minutes
this is probably the most difficult way of finding profitability; and
for the new trader, so many factors of complexity are introduced that
finding success as a scalper or day-trader can be daunting.
The scalper or day-trader is in the unenviable position of needing the
move(s) with which they are speculating to take place very quickly; and
trying to ‘force’ a market to make a move isn’t usually going to work
out that well. The shorter-term approach also affords a smaller margin
of error. Since less profit potential is generally available, tighter
stops need to be utilized; meaning failure will generally happen quite a
bit more often, or else the trader is opening themselves up to The
Number One Mistake that Forex Traders Make.
To trade with a very short-term approach, it’s advisable for a trader to
first get comfortable with a longer-term, and swing-trading approach
before moving down to the very fast time frames. But, once a trader is
comfortable there, it’s time to start building out the strategy.
Scalpers can look to the hourly chart to grade trends, and the 5 or 15 minute charts for entries
AUDUSD Technical Analysis (based on dailyfx article)
2013-03-27 09:30 GMT (or 10:30 MQ MT5 time) | [GBP - Retail Sales]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for GBP in our case)
U.K. Retail Sales Growth Tops Expectations
Retail sales volume including automotive fuel rose 1.7 percent in
February from January, the Office for National Statistics said. Sales
were expected to grow 0.5 percent after falling 2 percent in January.
auto fuel, retail sales gained 1.8 percent in February, in contrast to a
2 percent fall in the prior month. Economists were looking for a 0.3
5 Software Stocks to Buy Now
Gold Down Again; Lack of Bullish Fundamental News Keeps Bearish Technicals in Focus
Gold prices ended the U.S. day session moderately lower and hit
another six-week low Thursday. Prices also fell below psychological
support at $1,300. A dearth of fresh, bullish fundamental news is
allowing the technically oriented bears to take advantage of the weak
chart posture of gold. April gold was last down $10.40 at $1,293.00 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted down $12.50 at $1,293.75. May Comex silver last traded down $0.07 at $19.71 an ounce.
The Russia-Ukraine tensions have not escalated
significantly recently, but the situation remains a concern to the
world market place. While the U.S. is leading a worldwide effort to
isolate Russia after its annexation of Crimea, reports Thursday said
Russian economic growth is set to slow to the weakest rate in years.
Foreign capital in Russia has seen a mass exodus since the crisis
emerged. Russia’s deteriorating economy and world isolation will very
likely only make Russian president Vladimir Putin more defiant on the
world stage. Remember that the Russian military is still very powerful
and is still bristling with nuclear missiles. Put another way, Russia
could become the next North Korea—only supersized. This entire matter
is likely to become a longer-term bullish underlying factor for
safe-haven gold. Some are now calling the present U.S.-Russia relations
“Cold War 2.0.”
Meantime, the IMF has agreed to loan Ukraine
up to $18 billion to help out that nation’s struggling economy, after
the Russian incursion.
Reports this week say demand for physical gold from Asia continues tepid.
U.S. economic data out Thursday included the
weekly jobless claims report, the third-quarter GDP estimate, the
Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey, and pending home sales. This data
set was generally upbeat, which was a bearish underlying factor for
the precious metals Thursday. The data falls into the camp of monetary
policy hawks who favor less stimulus from the U.S. Federal Reserve.
The markets paid little attention to news late
Wednesday that some U.S. and world banks, including Citi, failed a
government stress test due to inadequate capital plans. Those banks
will have to resubmit new capital plans to the Federal Reserve.
The London P.M. gold fixing was $1,296.00 versus the previous P.M. fixing of $1,304.00.
Technically, April gold futures
prices closed nearer the session low Thursday. Serious near-term chart
damage has been inflicted recently. Prices are in a steep two-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. The bears have the near-term
technical advantage. The gold bulls’ next upside near-term price
breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at $1,320.00. Bears' next near-term downside breakout price
objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $1,250.00.
First resistance is seen at $1,300.00 and then at Thursday’s high of
$1,307.60. First support is seen at Thursday’s low of $1,291.20 and
then at $1,285.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 3.5
May silver futures
prices closed near mid-range Thursday and hit a seven-week low. Prices
are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The bears
have the near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls’ next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance
at $20.63 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $19.00. First
resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of $19.87 and then at $20.00.
Next support is seen at Thursday’s low of $19.575 and then at $19.50.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.
May N.Y. copper closed up 300 points at 299.55
cents Thursday. Prices closed nearer the session high on short
covering. Prices are in a three-month-old downtrend on the daily bar
chart and bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Copper
bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
above solid technical resistance at 307.75 cents. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at the March low of 287.70 cents. First resistance is
seen at this week’s high of 301.90 cents and then at 304.00 cents.
First support is seen at Thursday’s low of 296.25 cents and then at
295.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.
Bitcoin Tumbles on Rumors of PBOC’s Order for Accounts Shutdown (based on forexminute article)
Bitcoin prices plummeted nearly 10 percent on Thursday as news filtered
in that China’s central bank had issued a directive to the local banks
to stop dealing with businesses that transact using the virtual
NZDUSD Technical Analysis (based on dailyfx article)