if actual > forecast (or actual data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[EUR - French Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry. It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly
to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the
most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.
French manufacturing PMI 48.8 vs. 47.0 forecast
France’s manufacturing PMI rose more-than-expected last month, preliminary data showed on Tuesday.
In a report, Markit Economics said that French manufacturing PMI rose to
a seasonally adjusted 48.8, from 46.9 in the prior month.Analysts had expected French manufacturing PMI to rise to 47.0 last month.
Trading the News: New Zealand Trade Balance (adapted from dailyfx article)
A marked expansion in New Zealand’s trade deficit may spark fresh
monthly lows in the NZD/USD as it dampens the outlook for growth and
What’s Expected (MQ Metatrader 5 time as GMT+2):Why Is This Event Important:
The weakening outlook for global trade may drag on interest rate
expectations as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) adopts a neutral
tone for monetary policy, and Governor Graeme Wheeler may keep the cash
rate on hold throughout the remainder of the year in an effort to combat
the downside risk surrounding the real economy.
The trade report may highlight a weakening outlook for growth as
business confidence deteriorates, and a marked expansion in the trade
deficit may keep the RBNZ on the sidelines as the central bank continues
to weigh the impact of the rate hikes from earlier this year.However, the improved terms of trade along withexpectations for a faster
recovery may generate a better-than-expected print, and we may see
central bank Governor Wheeler show a greater willingness to further
normalize monetary policy should the data dampen the downside risks
surrounding the New Zealand economy.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bearish NZD Trade: Deficit Widens to NZD1.125B or Greater
New Zealand Has NZ$472 Million Trade Deficit
New Zealand posted a merchandise trade deficit of NZ$472 million in
August, Statistics New Zealand said on Wednesday - representing 13
percent of exports.
That beat forecasts for a deficit of NZ$1.125
billion following the downwardly revised NZ$724 billion shortfall in
July (originally NZ$692 million).
Exports were worth NZ$3.52 billion, topping expectations for NZ$3.20 billion and down from NZ$3.69 billion.
animals led the rise in exports, due to live cattle. Milk powder,
butter, and cheese exports also contributed to the increase, led by
higher quantities. The 16-percent rise in milk powder, butter, and
cheese was led by milk fat and cheese.
"Cattle, milk fat, and
cheese contributed to the rise in exports," international statistics
manager Jason Attewell said. "It is the first time in three years that a
rise in dairy was not led by milk powder."
Technical Analysis: EURUSD Breakout (based on dailyfx article)
As price with any breakout, there is always the potential for a price reversal. In the event of a false breakout, traders would first look for price to move back into range resistance located at the R3 pivot at a price of 1.2860. Once price has moved back into the trading range, reversal traders can look for price to potentially traverse the current 29 pip range back to support found at 1.2831. It should also be noted that price has the potential to break towards a lower low in the direction of the daily trend below the S4 pivot at 1.2818. In either scenario, this would indicate an end of bullish momentum drawing a conclusion to the present breakout environment.
Silver Breakdown Hints at USD Turning Point; EUR/USD, USD/CAD Not Done (based on dailyfx article)
During August and early-September, the rise of US Treasury yields neatly
coincided with an already-bullish landscape for the US Dollar, proving
to be further fuel to the fire. Yet over the past two weeks, the
greenback has persisted as a top performer while long-end US yields have
come back in after their brief jump. See the brief video above for what the technical breakdown in Silver
means for the majors such as EURUSD and USDCAD over the coming days.
[USD - Durable Goods Orders] = Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods.
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Show Sharp Pullback In August
Reflecting volatility in commercial aircraft orders, the Commerce
Department released a report on Thursday showing a sharp pullback in
orders for manufactured durable goods in August following the
substantial increase seen in July.
The report said durable goods
orders tumbled by 18.2 percent in August after surging up by 22.5
percent in July. Economists had been expecting orders to plunge by about
Excluding orders for transportation equipment,
durable goods orders actually rose by 0.7 percent in August compared to a
0.5 percent drop in July. The rebound matched economist estimates.
EUR/USD Drops Below 1.27 on Divergent Outlooks
The euro hit a 22-month low against the dollar on Thursday on the
prospect of diverging monetary policy between the Federal Reserve and
the European Central Bank as rate differentials swing decisively in the
The common currency fell to $1.2730 on trading platform EBS, its
lowest since November 2012, and was down 0.3 percent on the day. The
dollar index hit a new four-year high. The latest drop came as yield
differentials between US 10-year Treasuries and their German
counterparts traded near 15-year highs, driving more investors to buy
A recent batch of economic data has also highlighted the diverging
economic outlook for the euro zone and the United States. While German
business sentiment fell again in September to its lowest level in nearly
1-1/2 years, sales of new U.S. single-family homes surged in August to
their highest level in more than six years.