Press review - page 118

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

EURUSD Fundamentals (based on dailyfx article)

Fundamental Forecast for Euro: Neutral
  • The Euro’s vulnerability was on full display this week.
  • Shifting fundamental momentum sees the Euro losing key support to the Australian and US Dollars.



Big Move Ahead as Euro’s Fate Depends on Outcome of ECB Meeting
Big Move Ahead as Euro’s Fate Depends on Outcome of ECB Meeting
  • Christopher Vecchio
  • www.dailyfx.com
The European Central Bank’s dovish rhetoric show hit the road this week as policymakers continued the pushback against the perceived hawkish nature of the March policy meeting. Several different policymakers commented on the fragmented state of Euro-Zone credit, the impact of the elevated Euro exchange rate on inflation, and the prospect of...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  
Forex Fundamentals - Weekly outlook: March 31 - April 4

The dollar rose to two-week highs against the yen on Friday, as indications that China’s government is prepared to do more to shore up the cooling economy bolstered risk appetite.

Market sentiment was boosted after China's premier Li Keqiang said the country has policies in place to counter economic volatility. The remarks eased concerns over recent signs of a slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy.

Data on Friday showing that U.S. consumer spending rose 0.3% last month after a downwardly revised gain of 0.2% in January also lifted the dollar higher against the yen.

USD/JPY rose 0.64% to end Friday’s session at 102.83, the highest since March 12. For the week, the pair gained 0.57%.

The euro edged up from one-month lows against the dollar following the comments, with EUR/USD inching up 0.07% to settle at 1.3752, recovering from lows of 1.3702. The pair ended the week down 0.61%.

The euro remained under pressure after European Central Bank officials indicated earlier in the week that they are considering fresh policy options to stave off the risk of deflation in the region.
ECB governing council member and Bundesbank head Jens Weidmann said Tuesday that a negative deposit rate could be an appropriate way to address the impact of strong gains in the euro.

The same day ECB President Mario Draghi that the central bank stood ready to act if inflation slipped lower than the ECB expected.

Data on Friday showing that the annual rate of inflation in Spain slipped 0.2% in March fuelled concerns that deflation could threaten the economic recovery in the euro area. A separate report showed that the annual rate of inflation in Germany slowed in March.

The dollar was lower against the pound on Friday, with GBP/USD up 0.185 to 1.6640 at the close of trade.

Sterling remained supported after a report on Friday showed that U.K. fourth quarter growth was left unrevised at 0.7% for the final three months of 2013. Another report showed that the U.K. current account deficit came in at a larger-than-expected 22.4 billion pounds in the fourth quarter.

Elsewhere, the Australian dollar rose to a four-month high of 0.9295 against the greenback on Friday, before trimming back gains slightly to settle at 0.9247. AUD/USD ended the week with gains of 1.33%.

The Aussie was boosted as recent reports indicated that the economy is picking up, while hopes for fresh stimulus measures from China also supported the Australian’s dollar’s gains. Meanwhile, NZD/USD edged down 0.18% to 0.8654 at the close on Friday, after hitting two-and-a-half year highs of 0.8696 earlier in the session. The pair ended the week with gains of 1.31%.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking to Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for March for further indications on the strength of the labor market, while Monday’s euro zone inflation report will also be in focus, ahead of the ECB policy meeting and press conference on Thursday.

Monday, March 31
  • Japan is to release preliminary data on industrial production.
  • New Zealand is to produce private sector data on business confidence, while Australia is to publish data on private sector credit.
  • Switzerland is to publish its KOF economic barometer.
  • The U.K. is to release data on net lending to individuals.
  • The euro zone is to produce preliminary data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.
  • Canada is to publish the monthly report on gross domestic product, the broadest indicator of economic activity and the leading indicator of economic growth.
Tuesday, April 1
  • Japan is to publish its Tankan manufacturing and non-manufacturing index, as well as data on average cash earnings.
  • China is to release data on manufacturing activity.
  • The Reserve Bank of Australia is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision.
  • The euro zone is to release data on the unemployment rate. Germany is release data on the change in the number of people unemployed, while Spain and Italy are to release reports on manufacturing activity.
  • Switzerland is to release its SVME manufacturing index.
  • The U.K. is to release data on manufacturing activity.
  • Later Tuesday, the Institute of Supply Management is to publish a report on U.S. manufacturing growth.
Wednesday, April 2
  • Australia is to produce data on building approvals, a leading indicator of future construction activity.
  • The U.K. is to produce private sector data on house price inflation, as well as official data on construction activity.
  • In the euro zone, Spain is release data on the change in the number of people unemployed.
  • The U.S. is to release the ADP report on private sector job creation, which leads the government’s nonfarm payrolls report by two days. The U.S. is also to release data on factory orders.
Thursday, April 3
  • Australia is to release data on retail sales and the trade balance, the difference in value between imports and exports.
  • China is to produce data on service sector activity.
  • The euro zone is to release data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. Spain and Italy are to publish data on service sector activity.
  • The U.K. is also to release data on service sector growth, while the Bank of England is to announce its benchmark interest rate.
  • Later in the day, the European Central Bank is to announce its benchmark interest rate. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference with President Mario Draghi.
  • Both the U.S. and Canada are to publish data on the trade balance, and the U.S. is also to publish the weekly report on initial jobless claims. Meanwhile, the ISM is to publish a report service sector activity.
Friday, April 4
  • Germany is to publish data on factory orders.
  • Canada is to publish data on the change in the number of people employed and the unemployment rate. The nation is also to publish its Ivey PMI
  • The U.S. is to round up the week with the closely watched government data on nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  
USDCHF Fundamentals - weekly outlook: March 31 - April 4

The U.S. dollar ended the week higher against the Swiss franc on Friday in part due to heightened expectations that the Federal Reserve could start to tighten monetary policy in the early part of next year.

USD/CHF hit 0.8899, the highest since February 27, before trimming gains to end Friday’s session at 0.8866. For the week, the pair gained 0.68%.

The pair was likely to find support at 0.8839, Thursday’s low and resistance at 0.8925.

Demand for the dollar continued to be underpinned by expectations that the Federal Reserve could start to hike interest rates as soon as April 2015.

Market sentiment was boosted by indications that China’s government is prepared to do more to shore up the cooling economy. China's premier Li Keqiang said Friday his country has policies in place to counter economic volatility. The remarks eased concerns over recent signs of a slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy.

Data on Friday showing that U.S. consumer spending rose 0.3% last month after a downwardly revised gain of 0.2% in January also supported the dollar.

A separate report showed that the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index slipped to 80 in March, down from 81.6 the month before. It was higher than the preliminary March reading of 79.9 but below forecasts of 80.5.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking to Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for March for further indications on the strength of the labor market. Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, March 31
  • Switzerland is to publish its KOF economic barometer.
Tuesday, April 1
  • Switzerland is to release its SVME manufacturing index.
  • Later Tuesday, the Institute of Supply Management is to publish a report on U.S. manufacturing growth.
Wednesday, April 2
  • The U.S. is to release the ADP report on private sector job creation, which leads the government’s nonfarm payrolls report by two days. The U.S. is also to release data on factory orders.
Thursday, April 3
  • The U.S. is to publish data on the trade balance, as well as the weekly report on initial jobless claims. Meanwhile, the ISM is to publish a report service sector activity.
Friday, April 4
  • The U.S. is to round up the week with the closely watched government data on nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  
USDJPY Fundamentals - weekly outlook: March 31 - April 4

The yen fell to two-week lows against the dollar on Friday after comments by China’s premiere indicating that the country is ready to make moves to stimulate its economy dampened safe haven demand for the Japanese currency.

USD/JPY rose 0.64% to end Friday’s session at 102.83, the highest since March 12. For the week, the pair gained 0.57%.

The pair is likely to find support at 102.02, Friday’s low and resistance at 103.41, the high of March 11.

Risk appetite was boosted after China's premier Li Keqiang said the country has policies in place to counter economic volatility. The remarks eased concerns over recent signs of a slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy.

Data on Friday showing that U.S. consumer spending rose 0.3% last month after a downwardly revised gain of 0.2% in January also lifted the dollar higher against the yen.

A separate report showed that the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index slipped to 80 in March, down from 81.6 the month before. It was higher than the preliminary March reading of 79.9 but below forecasts of 80.5.

Earlier Friday, reports showed that the annual rate of consumer inflation in Japan rose 1.3% in February, indicating that the Bank of Japan’s stimulus program aimed at combatting deflation is working.

However, another report showed that household spending fell 2.5% in February, against expectations for a 0.1% increase.

Elsewhere, the euro was also higher against the yen on Friday, with EUR/JPY advancing 0.71% to 141.40, up from an almost one-month trough of 139.95.

The euro’s gains looked likely to be held in check after European Central Bank officials indicated earlier in the week that they are considering fresh policy options to stave off the risk of deflation in the region.

Data on Friday showing that the annual rate of inflation in Spain slipped 0.2% in March fuelled concerns that deflation could threaten the economic recovery in the euro area. A separate report showed that the annual rate of inflation in Germany slowed in March.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking to Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for March for further indications on the strength of the labor market. Japan is to release data on industrial production.

Monday, March 31
  • Japan is to release preliminary data on industrial production.
Tuesday, April 1
  • Japan is to publish its Tankan manufacturing and non-manufacturing index, as well as data on average cash earnings.
  • The Institute of Supply Management is to publish a report on U.S. manufacturing growth.
Wednesday, April 2
  • The U.S. is to release the ADP report on private sector job creation, which leads the government’s nonfarm payrolls report by two days. The U.S. is also to release data on factory orders.
Thursday, April 3
  • The U.S. is to publish data on the trade balance, as well as the weekly report on initial jobless claims. Meanwhile, the ISM is to publish a report service sector activity.
Friday, April 4
  • The U.S. is to round up the week with the closely watched government data on nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  
USDCAD Fundamentals - weekly outlook: March 31 - April 4

The U.S. dollar moved higher against the Canadian dollar on Friday, paring some of its weekly loss after data showed that U.S. consumer spending increased in February.

USD/CAD was last up 0.25% to 1.1059 after falling to lows of 1.0999 earlier in the session, the weakest since March 7. For the week, the pair ended down 1.23%.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.0999 and resistance at 1.1105, Thursday’s high.

Data on Friday showing that U.S. consumer spending rose 0.3% last month after a downwardly revised gain of 0.2% in January helped the greenback off lows against Canada’s dollar.

A separate report showed that the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index slipped to 80 in March, down from 81.6 the month before. It was higher than the preliminary March reading of 79.9 but below forecasts of 80.5.

The loonie, as the Canadian dollar is also known, strengthened against the greenback earlier in the week as the loonie tracked strong gains in the commodity linked Australian and New Zealand dollars.

The currency lacked strong drivers in any direction, with no major economic data releases in Canada on Thursday or Friday.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking to Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for March for further indications on the strength of the labor market, while Monday’s Canadian GDP report will also be in focus.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, March 31
  • Canada is to publish the monthly report on gross domestic product, the broadest indicator of economic activity and the leading indicator of economic growth.
Tuesday, April 1
  • The Institute of Supply Management is to publish a report on U.S. manufacturing growth.
Wednesday, April 2
  • The U.S. is to release the ADP report on private sector job creation, which leads the government’s nonfarm payrolls report by two days. The U.S. is also to release data on factory orders.
Thursday, April 3
  • Both the U.S. and Canada are to publish data on the trade balance, and the U.S. is also to publish the weekly report on initial jobless claims. Meanwhile, the ISM is to publish a report service sector activity.
Friday, April 4
  • Canada is to publish data on the change in the number of people employed and the unemployment rate. The nation is also to publish its Ivey PMI
  • The U.S. is to round up the week with the closely watched government data on nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  
AUDUSD Fundamentals - weekly outlook: March 31 - April 4

The Australian dollar ended Friday’s session close to a four-month high, amid indications the local economy is picking up, while hopes for fresh stimulus measures from China also supported gains.

AUD/USD rose to 0.9295 on Friday, the pair’s highest since November 21, before subsequently consolidating at 0.9248 by close of trade on Friday, down 0.1% for the day but still 1.79% higher for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.9215, the low from March 27 and resistance at 0.9295, the high from March 28.

The Aussie climbed to the highest level since November on Friday after China's premier Li Keqiang said policymakers are prepared to do more to shore up the cooling economy.

The remarks helped ease concerns over recent signs of a slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy. The Asian nation is also Australia’s biggest trade partner.

The Australian dollar remained supported after upbeat comments made by Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens earlier in the week.

RBA Governor Stevens said on Wednesday that the nation’s economy may strengthen later this year. Stevens added that this was helped by "the lower exchange rate since last April and the improved economic conditions overseas."

Meanwhile, in the U.S., data on Friday showed that U.S. consumer spending rose 0.3% last month after a downwardly revised gain of 0.2% in January

A separate report showed that the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index slipped to 80.0 in March, down from 81.6 the month before. It was higher than the preliminary March reading of 79.9 but below forecasts of 80.5.

On Thursday, economic reports showed that U.S. jobless claims fell to their lowest level since late November last week, while U.S. fourth quarter growth was revised higher.

Data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission released Friday showed that speculators reduced their bearish bets on the Australian dollar for the second consecutive week in the week ending March 25.

Net shorts totaled 20,527 contracts, compared to net shorts of 24,463 in the preceding week.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking to Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for March for further indications on the strength of the labor market, while Tuesday’s rate decision from the RBA will also be closely-watched.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, March 31
  • Australia is to publish data on private sector credit.
Tuesday, April 1
  • China is to release data on manufacturing activity.
  • The Reserve Bank of Australia is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision.
  • Later Tuesday, the Institute of Supply Management is to publish a report on U.S. manufacturing growth.
Wednesday, April 2
  • Australia is to produce data on building approvals, a leading indicator of future construction activity.
  • The U.S. is to release the ADP report on private sector job creation, which leads the government’s nonfarm payrolls report by two days. The U.S. is also to release data on factory orders.
Thursday, April 3
  • Australia is to release data on retail sales and the trade balance, the difference in value between imports and exports.
  • China is to produce data on service sector activity.
  • Later in the day, the U.S. is to publish data on the trade balance and the weekly report on initial jobless claims. Meanwhile, the ISM is to publish a report service sector activity.
Friday, April 4
  • The U.S. is to round up the week with the closely watched government data on nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  
NZDUSD Fundamentals - weekly outlook: March 31 - April 4

The New Zealand ended Friday’s session close to a two-and-a-half year high, amid indications the domestic economy is gaining momentum, while hopes for fresh stimulus measures from China also supported gains.

NZD/USD rose to 0.8697 on Friday, the pair’s highest since August 2, 2011, before subsequently consolidating at 0.8656 by close of trade on Friday, down 0.18% for the day but still 1.38% higher for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.8590, the low from March 27 and resistance at 0.8697, the high from March 28.

The kiwi climbed to the highest level since August 2011 on Friday after China's premier Li Keqiang said policymakers are prepared to do more to shore up the cooling economy.

The remarks helped ease concerns over recent signs of a slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy.

The New Zealand dollar remained supported after data released earlier in the week showed that New Zealand’s trade surplus rose sharply in February.

The kiwi received an additional boost after Reserve Bank Deputy Governor Grant Spencer indicated that the bank could remove measures to cool the housing market, which would allow inflation to rise.

Meanwhile, in the U.S., data on Friday showed that U.S. consumer spending rose 0.3% last month after a downwardly revised gain of 0.2% in January

A separate report showed that the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index slipped to 80.0 in March, down from 81.6 the month before. It was higher than the preliminary March reading of 79.9 but below forecasts of 80.5.

On Thursday, economic reports showed that U.S. jobless claims fell to their lowest level since late November last week, while U.S. fourth quarter growth was revised higher.

Data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission released Friday showed that speculators increased their bullish bets on the New Zealand dollar in the week ending March 25.

Net longs totaled 18,213 contracts as of last week, up 13.5% from net longs of 15,751 contracts in the previous week.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking to Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for March for further indications on the strength of the labor market.

Attention will also turn to the release of Chinese manufacturing data due Tuesday. The Asian nation is New Zealand's second biggest export partner.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, March 31
  • New Zealand is to produce private sector data on business confidence.
Tuesday, April 1
  • China is to release data on manufacturing activity.
  • Later Tuesday, the Institute of Supply Management is to publish a report on U.S. manufacturing growth.
Wednesday, April 2
  • The U.S. is to release the ADP report on private sector job creation, which leads the government’s nonfarm payrolls report by two days. The U.S. is also to release data on factory orders.
Thursday, April 3
  • China is to produce data on service sector activity.
  • Later in the day, the U.S. is to publish data on the trade balance and the weekly report on initial jobless claims. Meanwhile, the ISM is to publish a report service sector activity.
Friday, April 4
  • The U.S. is to round up the week with the closely watched government data on nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  
GBPUSD Fundamentals - weekly outlook: March 31 - April 4

The pound was higher against the dollar on Friday as optamism over the rapid economic recovery in the U.K. and fresh hopes for economic stimulus in China underpinned investor demand for sterling.

GBP/USD was last up 0.18% to 1.6639, after touching session highs of 1.6651, the strongest level since March 19.

Cable was likely to find support at 1.6553, Thursay’s low and resistance at 1.6700.

Risk appetite was boosted by indications that China’s government is prepared to do more to shore up the cooling economy. China's premier Li Keqiang said Friday the country has policies in place to counter economic volatility. The remarks eased concerns over recent signs of a slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy.

Sterling remained supported after a report on Friday showed that U.K. fourth quarter growth was left unrevised at 0.7% for the final three months of 2013. The economy expanded 2.7% from the same period a year earlier, but growth for the full year was revised down to 1.8% from a preliminary estimate for 1.9%.

Sterling shrugged off a report showing that the U.K. current account deficit came in at 22.4 billion pounds in the fourth quarter, well above expectations for a deficit of 14 billion pounds.

The reports came one day after official data showed that U.K. retail sales rose 1.7% in February; recouping most of January’s 2.0% decline, and were 3.7% higher from a year earlier.

Market expectations had been for a 0.5% increase on the month and an annual gain of 2.5%.

In the U.S., data on Friday showed that U.S. consumer spending rose 0.3% last month after a downwardly revised gain of 0.2% in January.

A separate report showed that the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index slipped to 80 in March, down from 81.6 the month before. It was higher than the preliminary March reading of 79.9 but below forecasts of 80.5.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking to Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for March for further indications on the strength of the labor market, while U.K. PMI surveys on manufacturing, services and construction sector activity will also be closely watched.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, March 31
  • The U.K. is to release data on net lending to individuals.
Tuesday, April 1
  • The U.K. is to release data on manufacturing activity.
  • Later Tuesday, the Institute of Supply Management is to publish a report on U.S. manufacturing growth.
Wednesday, April 2
  • The U.K. is to produce private sector data on house price inflation, as well as a report on construction activity.
  • The U.S. is to release the ADP report on private sector job creation, which leads the government’s nonfarm payrolls report by two days. The U.S. is also to release data on factory orders.
Thursday, April 3
  • The U.K. is also to release data on service sector growth, while the Bank of England is to announce its benchmark interest rate.
  • The U.S. is to publish data on the trade balance, as well as the weekly report on initial jobless claims. Meanwhile, the ISM is to publish a report service sector activity.
Friday, April 4
  • The U.S. is to round up the week with the closely watched government data on nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  
EURUSD Fundamentals - weekly outlook: March 31 - April 4

The euro inched higher against the dollar on Friday, pulling back from one-month lows as market sentiment was bolstered by indications that China is prepared to do more to shore up the cooling economy.

EUR/USD edged up 0.07% to settle at 1.3752, recovering from lows of 1.3702. The pair ended the week down 0.61%.

The pair was likely to find support at 1.3702 and resistance at 1.3800.

Risk appetite was boosted after China's premier Li Keqiang said Friday the country has policies in place to counter economic volatility. The remarks eased concerns over recent signs of a slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy.

The common currency remained under pressure after European Central Bank officials indicated earlier in the week that they are considering fresh policy options to stave off the risk of deflation in the region.

ECB governing council member and Bundesbank head Jens Weidmann said Tuesday that a negative deposit rate could be an appropriate way to address the impact of strong gains in the euro.

The same day ECB President Mario Draghi that the central bank stood ready to act if inflation slipped lower than the ECB expected.

Data on Friday showing that the annual rate of inflation in Spain slipped 0.2% in March fuelled concerns that deflation could threaten the economic recovery in the euro area. A separate report showed that the annual rate of inflation in Germany slowed in March.

Elsewhere, the euro was higher against the yen on Friday, with EUR/JPY advancing 0.71% to 141.40, up from an almost one-month trough of 139.95.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking to Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for March for further indications on the strength of the labor market, while Monday’s euro zone inflation report will also be in focus, ahead of the ECB policy meeting and press conference on Thursday.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, March 31
  • The euro zone is to produce preliminary data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.
Tuesday, April 1
  • The euro zone is to release data on the unemployment rate. Germany is release data on the change in the number of people unemployed, while Spain and Italy are to release reports on manufacturing activity.
  • Later Tuesday, the Institute of Supply Management is to publish a report on U.S. manufacturing growth.
Wednesday, April 2
  • In the euro zone, Spain is release data on the change in the number of people unemployed.
  • The U.S. is to release the ADP report on private sector job creation, which leads the government’s nonfarm payrolls report by two days. The U.S. is also to release data on factory orders.
Thursday, April 3
  • The euro zone is to release data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. Spain and Italy are to publish data on service sector activity.
  • Later in the day, the ECB is to announce its benchmark interest rate. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference with President Mario Draghi.
  • The U.S. is to publish data on the trade balance, as well as the weekly report on initial jobless claims. Meanwhile, the ISM is to publish a report service sector activity.
Friday, April 4
  • Germany is to publish data on factory orders.
  • The U.S. is to round up the week with the closely watched government data on nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  
Key Fundamental Forex Events for the Week of March 24th through March 28th

The following table lists the key economic data and other events that came out during the week of March 24th through March 28th, with release times displayed for the GMT time zone.
The list also indicates how much each release deviated from the market consensus forecast upon release, as well as what the affected major currency pair or pairs did after each event or set of events.

Monday, March 24th
  • 2:45am CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI 48.1 versus 48.1 expected. 9:00am EUR French Flash Manufacturing PMI 51.9 versus 49.8 expected. The currency rose.
  • 9:00am EUR French Flash Services PMI 51.4 versus 47.9 expected. The currency rose.
  • 9:30am EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI 53.8 versus 54.7 expected. The currency rose.
  • 9:30am EUR German Flash Services PMI 54.0 versus 55.8 expected. The currency rose.
  • 10:00am EUR EZ Flash Manufacturing PMI 53.0 versus 53.2 expected. The currency rose.
  • 10:00am EUR EZ Flash Services PMI 52.4 versus 52.6 expected. The currency rose.
  • 12:00pm EUR German Buba Monthly Report noted that, "The global economy progressively improved during 2013 after getting off to a slow start. In the final quarter of 2013, the world economy probably just about maintained the moderate pace of growth it had generated up to then." The currency rose.
  • 2:45pm USD Flash Manufacturing PMI 55.5 versus 56.6 expected. The currency fell.
  • All Day ALL G7 Meetings: German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that, “As long as the political environment for the G8 is not at hand, as is the case at the moment, there is no G8 – neither as a concrete summit meeting or even as a format for meetings”.
  • 5:30pm CAD Governing Council Member Lane said that, "Financial benchmarks are used in a variety of contracts to specify what, or how much money, is to be delivered on particular dates. One example is floating - rate debt, where the borrower pays the lender an amount of interest based on a benchmark that varies from one period to another according to a selected measure of interest rates." The currency rose.
Tuesday, March 25th
  • 5:45am AUD RBA Deputy Governor Lowe said that, "In my own view, the internationalisation of the renminbi (RMB) – and the changes that accompany it – could ultimately prove to be as transformative for global capital markets as was the earlier opening up of China's borders for the global trading system. Even if this turns out to be only half correct, then we need to better understand the process of internationalisation of the RMB, including the pitfalls and the opportunities." The currency rose.
  • 10:00am EUR German Ifo Business Climate 110.7 versus 110.9 expected. The currency fell.
  • 10:30am GBP CPI 1.7% versus 1.7% expected. The currency rose.
  • 10:30am GBP BBA Mortgage Approvals 47.6K versus 50.0K expected. The currency rose.
  • 10:30am GBP PPI Input -0.4%versus 0.4% expected. The currency rose.
  • 10:30am GBP RPI 2.7%versus 2.6% expected. The currency rose.
  • 12:00pm GBP CBI Realized Sales 13 versus 30 expected. The currency rose.
  • 2:00pm USD S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI 13.2%versus 13.3% expected. The currency rose.
  • 3:00pm USD CB Consumer Confidence 82.3 versus 78.7 expected. The currency rose.
  • 3:00pm USD New Home Sales 440K versus 447K expected. The currency rose.
  • 11:30pm AUD RBA Deputy Governor Lowe said that, "The relatively high reliance of Australian issuers on the offshore market is evident in the data on the composition of corporate bonds outstanding. Currently, bonds that were issued offshore account for around 80 per cent of the outstanding value of bonds issued by Australian-based corporations. A decade ago, this figure was considerably lower at around 50 per cent. The offshore market is favoured by companies that want to raise foreign currency funding as a natural hedge against their foreign currency revenue." The currency rose.
Wednesday, March 26th
  • 12:00am USD FOMC Member Plosser said that, "Tonight I would like to focus on a particular aspect of current monetary policy that has been a source of much discussion and debate — forward guidance — that is, the practice of providing information on the way monetary policy is likely to evolve in the future. Forward guidance has taken on greater significance since the FOMC lowered the target federal funds rate to essentially zero more than five years ago. Facing this zero lower bound constraint on its primary policy instrument, the FOMC has been attempting to implement monetary policy, in part, by influencing expectations of future policy." The currency rose.
  • 1:30am AUD RBA Financial Stability Review noted that, "Indicators of distress in the business sector, such as failures and non-performing loans, generally continued to ease through 2013 and conditions appear to have improved. The period of deleveraging that took place following the financial crisis appear to have run its course, though the overall need for external funding by businesses, including demand for credit, remains modest." The currency rose.
  • 7:00am AUD RBA Governor Stevens said that, "Overall, in 2014 economic global growth is thought likely by major forecasters to be a bit higher than in 2013, and at about average pace. More of the growth is coming from the advanced countries, and proportionately not quite so much from the emerging ones. That is probably a welcome re-balancing in some respects, after the weakness of the advanced countries in recent years." The currency rose.
  • 8:00am EUR GfK German Consumer Climate 8.5 versus 8.5 expected. The currency fell.
  • 1:30pm USD Core Durable Goods Orders 0.2%versus 0.3% expected. The currency rose.
  • 1:30pm USD Durable Goods Orders 2.2%versus 1.1% expected. The currency rose.
  • 3:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 6.6M versus last 5.9M expected. The currency rose.
  • 10:45pm NZD Trade Balance 818M versus 600M expected. The currency rose.
Thursday, March 27th
  • 10:00am EUR M3 Money Supply 1.3%versus 1.3% expected. The currency fell.
  • 10:00am EUR Private Loans -2.2% versus -2.1% expected. The currency fell.
  • 10:30am GBP Retail Sales 1.7%versus 0.5% expected. The currency rose.
  • 1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 311K versus 326K expected. The currency rose.
  • 1:30pm USD FOMC Member Pianalto said that, "The Federal Reserve has a number of responsibilities, many of which you may not be familiar with. For example, the Federal Reserve serves as the lender of last resort. Federal Reserve Banks can make loans to address financial panics, and we certainly made use of that power during the financial crisis in 2008. We supervise the banking system. We work to ensure an accessible, efficient, and secure US payments system, and we serve as the federal government’s bank. Our community development efforts support the economic growth of low- and moderate-income neighborhoods across the country." The currency rose.
  • 1:30pm USD Final GDP 2.6% versus 2.7% expected. The currency rose.
  • 3:00pm USD Pending Home Sales -0.8% versus 0.2% expected. The currency rose.
Friday, March 28th
  • 12:30am JPY Household Spending -2.5% versus 0.3% expected. The currency fell.
  • 12:30pm JPY Tokyo Core CPI 1.0% versus 0.9% expected. The currency fell.
  • 12:50am JPY Retail Sales 3.6% versus 3.6% expected. The currency fell.
  • All Day EUR German Preliminary CPI 0.3% versus 0.4% expected. The currency rose.
  • 8:45am EUR French Consumer Spending 0.1% versus 1.0% expected. The currency rose.
  • 10:30am GBP Current Account -22.4B versus -13.5B expected. The currency rose.
  • 10:30am GBP Final GDP 0.7% versus 0.7% expected. The currency rose.
  • 11:21am EUR Italian 10-year Bond Auction 3.29 average yield with a 1.3 bid to cover ratio versus last 3.42 average yield with a 1.6 bid to cover ratio. The currency rose.
  • 1:30pm USD Core PCE Price Index 0.1% versus 0.1% expected. The currency rose.
  • 1:30pm USD Personal Spending 0.3% versus 0.3% expected. The currency rose.
  • 2:55pm USD Revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey 80.0 versus 80.6 expected. The currency rose.