Press review - page 11
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2013-07-03 01:30 GMT | [AUD - Retail Sales]
If actual > forecast = good for currency (for AUD in our case)
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Australia Retail Sales Add 0.1% In May
Retail sales in Australia were up a seasonally adjusted 0.1 percent on month in May, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday - standing at A$21.825 billion.
That missed forecasts for an increase of 0.3 percent following the downwardly revised 0.1 percent contraction in April (originally up 0.2 percent).
By category, sales were up in other retailing (0.8 percent), food retailing (0.2 percent), department stores (0.8 percent) and clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (0.4 percent).
Sales were down for cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (-0.6 percent) and household goods retailing (-0.3 percent).
By region, sales gained in Western Australia (1.6 percent), Queensland (0.5 percent), South Australia (0.6 percent), Tasmania (0.6 percent) and the Northern Territory (0.8 percent).
Sales were down in New South Wales (-0.4 percent), Victoria (-0.3 percent) and the Australian Capital Territory (-1.7 percent).
On a yearly basis, retail sales were up 2.3 percent.
The other news event which was today are the following:
2013-07-03 07:53 GMT | [EUR - German Services PMI]
If actual > forecast = good for currency (for EUR in our case)
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Germany June Service Sector Rebounds Less Than Initially Estimated :
The Germany service sector returned to growth in June after shrinking in the previous two months, but the rate of growth was slower than initially estimated, final data released by Markit Economics and BME showed Wednesday.
The seasonally adjusted purchasing managers' index for the service sector rose to a three-month high of 50.4 in June from 49.7 in May, moving above the no-change 50 mark - which separates growth from contraction - for the second successive month. The revised score was, however, notably lower than 51.3 estimated earlier.
Data showed that part of the upturn in service sector activity was driven by the completion of outstanding projects in June. New orders in the sector decreased for fourth consecutive month, although the rate of contraction eased to the slowest since March.
Firms lowered their workforces further during the month. Though the pace of job shedding was only moderate, the latest fall was the most marked since September 2012.
Meanwhile, confidence about the prospects for the German service sector has weakened over the next 12 months, with the degree of positive sentiment reaching the lowest so far in 2013.
At the same time, the composite output index, which measures performance of both the manufacturing sector and the service sector, advanced to 50.4 in June from 50.2 in May, indicating a modest acceleration in overall growth. The flash estimates were for a score of 50.9.
The next news event which was had for today is the following:
2013-07-03 08:28 GMT | [GBP - Services PMI]
If actual > forecast = good for currency (for GBP in our case)
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UK Service Sector Growth At 2-Yr High Amid New Order Surge :
British service sector growth accelerated to its highest in more than two years in June supported by the strongest gain in new businesses since 2007, a survey by Markit Economics and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply showed Wednesday.
The headline Business Activity Index recorded 56.9 in June, the highest since March 2011. In May, the index showed a reading of 54.9. Readings above 50 indicates expansion of the sector.
Growth has now been recorded for six successive survey periods. Economists had forecast a marginal fall in the index to 54.5.
New orders expanded at the fastest pace since June 2007 and this encouraged companies to add jobs at the sharpest pace since August 2007.
Confidence among service providers hit a 14-month high in June, the survey found. Both input and output prices accelerated in June. Despite the increase, output price inflation was modest and was much below that of input costs.
How Prices Move: The Equation For FOREX Price Movement :
Markets Do NOT Move To a Scientific Formula
Firstly, let's get rid of this myth.
Many traders believe this and numerous vendors on the net perpetrate the myth of markets moving to a scientific law which appeals to the greed and naivety of traders.
Common sense tells us that markets don't move scientifically:
If markets moved scientifically, there'd be no market as we'd all know the price beforehand. Any free financial market including FOREX market by its very nature, involves uncertainty - that's what makes a market move - the fact that human nature is not in any way predictable. If you think about it, how can people who are emotional ever be predicted with certainty? They can't and this should be obvious to anyone with average intelligence but I see clever people who believe this myth. If you believe it, don't trade currency markets - because you will see your trading account get wiped out quickly.
Trading the Odds for Profit
While you are not trading certainties but that doesn't mean you can't make a lot of money, you can - by trading the odds.
With a sound trading method that runs profits and cuts losses quickly you can build significant long term wealth.
It is no coincidence that many of the world's top traders started out as either blackjack or poker players. The reason for this is - any good card player knows he won't win every hand but if they bet when the odds are in their favor and fold when there not, they will make a lot of money longer term.
Trading is simply an odds game.
If you know how to calculate the odds correctly, you can win and build significant long term wealth. Let's look at how to get the odds in your favor.
Price Movement – The fundamentals
Many traders like to trade off news stories and watch the fundamentals, it's popular but will trading news stories make traders money? Let's find out.
A currency trader, who makes trades based upon fundamental analysis, will look at the supply and demand situation relevant to the particular currency studied, and try and predict the impact of such factors as:
2013-07-04 01:30 GMT | [AUD - Building Permits]
If actual > forecast = good for currency (for AUD in our case)
===========
Australia Building Approvals Decline In May :
Australia's building approvals dropped in May compared with the previous month, the latest figures from the Australia Bureau of Statistics showed Wednesday.
Total number of dwelling units approved in May fell 1.1 percent from a month earlier on a seasonally adjusted basis. This followed a 9.5 percent month-on-month growth recorded in April. Economists had predicted a 1 percent fall.
The number of private residential units approved, meanwhile, increased 2.5 percent month-on-month.
On an annual basis, overall building consents dropped 3.2 percent in May, data showed.
2013-07-04 02:30 GMT | [AUD - RBA Deputy Governor Lowe Speech]
"I would like to start with the first of these two ideas: that regulators should make sure that this type of financial instability never happens again.
This idea has motivated much of the reform effort. And it is entirely understandable."
This news event is new for me - I never knew about it and never traded it. I considered it as low impacted news event and I ignored this one sorry ... may be - I was not right in this case ... but you know - the bank holiday for USD news event for today and because of that - the market may be re-acted on low impacted news being very volatile with lack of liquidity for example.
2013-07-04 07:00 GMT | [GBP - Halifax House Prices MoM]
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Halifax House Price Index
The Halifax House Price Index is the UK's longest running monthly house price series with data covering the whole country going back to January 1983.
The annual rate is at its highest for nearly three years.
Prices in the three months to June were 3.7% higher than in the same three months a year earlier. This was the biggest increase in this annual measure since August 2010 (4.6%).
House prices increased by 0.6% in June. This was the fifth consecutive monthly rise.
Commenting, Martin Ellis, housing economist, said:
"House prices continue to rise steadily. Prices in the three months to June were 2.1% higher than in the previous quarter, edging above the 1-2% range recorded throughout the first five months of the year. The annual rate is at its highest for nearly three years with prices in the three months to June 3.7% higher than in the same three months last year.
"Activity has also improved in recent months. Both home sales and mortgage approvals for house purchase – a leading indicator of sales – increased in May.
"Improved confidence in both the housing market and the economy, combined with a shortage of properties available for sale, appear to be pushing up house prices. The Funding for Lending Scheme is also likely to be boosting the market by helping to reduce mortgage rates. There are also early indications that the Help to Buy: equity loan scheme may be stimulating demand. Despite these signs of improvement in the market, the still subdued economic background and weak income growth are expected to remain significant constraints on housing demand and activity during the second half of 2013."
2013-07-04 12:30 GMT | [EUR - ECB press conference]
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Press conference following the meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank on 4 July 2013 at its premises in Frankfurt am Main, Germany, starting at 2:30 p.m. CET:
Watch video here : Webcast of the press conference 4 July 2013
Draghi Sees ECB Rates Low For 'Extended Period'
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said on Thursday that euro area interest rates are likely to remain low for an 'extended period' of time, a statement that was construed as a forward guidance about the policy path to markets that were rattled by the Portugal political crisis and the U.S. Federal Reserve's tapering announcement.
"The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time," Draghi said in his introductory statement at the regular press conference in Frankfurt, which was held after the bank announced its decision to leave the refi rate unchanged at record low 0.50 percent for a second straight month.
"This expectation is based on the overall subdued outlook for inflation extending into the medium term, given the broad-based weakness in the real economy and subdued monetary dynamics."
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Forum
EURUSD Technical Analysis 30.06 - 07.07 : Possible Reversal
newdigital, 2013.07.04 07:53
We are going to have the following news event for EUR for today:
2013-07-04 08:00/09:00 GMT | [EUR - Gross Domestic Product]
2013-07-04 11:45 GMT | [EUR - ECB Interest Rate Decision]
2013-07-04 12:30 GMT | [EUR - ECB press conference]
Forum
EURUSD Technical Analysis 30.06 - 07.07 : Possible Reversal
newdigital, 2013.07.04 14:47
2013-07-04 12:30 GMT | [EUR - ECB press conference] with +78 pips :
Forum
Press review
newdigital, 2013.07.04 14:46
2013-07-04 12:30 GMT | [EUR - ECB press conference]
==========
Press conference following the meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank on 4 July 2013 at its premises in Frankfurt am Main, Germany, starting at 2:30 p.m. CET:
Watch video here : Webcast of the press conference 4 July 2013
Will Winklevoss Brothers’ Investment Give New Life to Bitcoin? :
Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, the two brothers have been the lucky charm for Facebook which has now become a lucrative business. They got $65 million cash and stock settlement in 2008 when they finally accepted a financial settlement with Mark Zuckerberg, the founder of Facebook who the two brothers accused of idea theft.
Now, the two brothers are investing in Bitcoin and inviting investments in the online currency from the fellow venture capitalists. As of now, the Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust is offering 1 million shares and aims to track the performance of the average price of Bitcoins.