Press review - page 443

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GBP/USD (based on the article)

GBP/USD - "Signs of stronger U.K. inflation accompanied by a pickup in retail spending by may curb the bearish sentiment surrounding the sterling as BoE officials continue to drop their dovish tone and see a greater risk of above-target price growth. Even though BoE Governor Mark Carney argues the central bank is willing to tolerate ‘some inflation overshoot,’ it seems as though the marked depreciation in the British Pound is becoming a growing concern within the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) as Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe warns the next quarterly inflation due out on November 3 will reflect the sharp decline in the exchange rate. As a result, the central bank may have little choice but to stay on the sidelines throughout the remainder of the year in an effort to combat the risk for stagflation. A series of positive U.K. data prints may fuel a near-term recovery in the British Pound as market participants push out bets for the next BoE rate-cut, but the broader outlook for GBP/USD remains tilted to the downside as the growing threat of a ‘hard Brexit’ undermines the better-than-expected developments coming out of the real economy."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for AUD/USD (based on the article)

AUD/USD - "Optimal for the Australian economy would be a quiet patch for the next couple of months so that markets can get more acquainted with Dr. Phillip Lowe in the effort of ‘getting a feel’ for how he may look to lead the bank in the months and years ahead. This would also allow those recent rate cuts to begin to show in Australian data so that markets can garner an opinion on how much any additional cut(s) might help, or even if they’ll be needed at all."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/CAD (based on the article)

USD/CAD - "The heavy economic data point this week will take place on Wednesday, which will be the October 19 Bank of Canada Policy Rate announcement and release of the Monetary Policy Report. Traders will be on watch for how the Bank of Canada is seeing stabilization in the energy sector, whether or not there is a continued pickup in the non-commodity exports to emerging economies, and how they see growth in the rest of the economy."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/CNH (based on the article)

USD/CNH - "The PBOC’s guidance on the Yuan will continue to be in focus. Yuan’s daily fix was weakened by the regulator for four consecutive days until Friday after a week-long hiatus due to Chinese holidays, or seven trading days in a row. Since the offshore Yuan was introduced in 2010, there are only four periods that the USD/CNH touched above 6.71: August to September 2010, January 2016, July 2016 and now, which provide limited references for Yuan’s further moves. For the onshore Yuan, the last time it traded above 6.71 was six years ago, with even fewer references. Within such a context, traders will want to keep a close eye on Yuan’s guidance from China’s Central Bank, as it may largely impact the onshore and offshore Yuan rates."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GOLD (XAU/USD) (based on the article)

GOLD (XAU/USD) - "Heading into next week, traders will be closely eyeing the release of the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) after minutes from the latest FOMC policy meeting cited that “survey-based measures of longer-run inflation expectations were little changed, on balance, while market-based measures of inflation compensation remained low.” Should the data show a stronger-than-expected increase in the pace of price growth, look for gold prices to remain under pressure. Aside from the economic docket, a fresh batch of central bank rhetoric from 2016 voting members Fed Vice-Chair Stanley Fischer, New York Fed President William Dudley and Fed Governor Jerome Powell may also impact prices as expectations for a December rate-hike continue to prop-up the U.S. dollar, to the detriment of gold."

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New York Manufacturing Index and 6 pips price movement

2016-10-17 12:30 GMT | [USD - Empire State Manufacturing Index]

• past data is -2.0
• forecast data is 1.0
• actual data is -6.8 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Empire State Manufacturing Index] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers in New York state.

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From Market Watch article:

• "A gauge of New York-area manufacturing became more pessimistic in October, data released Monday showed."
• "The Empire State index fell to negative 6.8 from negative 2 in September, on a scale where any reading below zero indicates contracting activity. That’s the weakest reading since May."
• "The index for new orders improved slightly but was still negative at minus 5.6. Orders for shipments, unfilled orders, delivery time, inventories, number of employees and average employee workweek all were negative."

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EUR/USD M5: 6 pips price movement by Empire State Manufacturing Index news event

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada's International Transactions in Securities and 27 pips range price movement

2016-10-17 12:30 GMT | [CAD - Foreign Securities Purchases]

• past data is 9.10B
• forecast data is 6.24B
• actual data is 12.74B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - Foreign Securities Purchases] = Total value of domestic stocks, bonds, and money-market assets purchased by foreigners during the reported month.

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From official report:

• "Foreign investment in Canadian securities totalled $12.7 billion in August, led by acquisitions of Canadian bonds on the secondary market. At the same time, Canadian investment in foreign securities slowed to $1.6 billion. This resulted in a net inflow of funds of $11.1 billion into the Canadian economy in the month."
• "This activity marked the eight straight month of net inflow of funds in Canada's international transactions in securities. Since the beginning of the year, foreign investment in Canadian securities has exceeded Canadian investment in foreign securities by $96.9 billion."

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USD/CAD M5: 27 pips range price movement by Canada's International Transactions in Securities news event

[Sergey Golubev]

Quick Technical Overview - GOLD: price reversed to the bearish with 1,241.34 support (adapted from the article)

Daily price broke 100 SMA/200 SMA to below to be reversed to the primary bearish market condition. Fow now, the price is on ranging within narrow s/r levels waiting to be reversed back to the ranging bullish condition or for the bearish trend to be resumed.

• "Gold prices remain in a holding pattern, with the open of Mondays trading marking the 6th session of consolidation for the commodity. Key daily resistance for the price of Gold remains above $1,265.34, while support is found near $1,241.27. Traders will be looking for Gold prices to breakout this week with the release of several high importance news events. This includes US CPI data released on Tuesday with an expectations set at 1.5% (YoY) (Sep), and Australian Employment Change data released on Wednesday with expectations of +15.0K (Sep)."
• If the price breaks 1,241.34 support level to below on close daily bar so the primary bearish market condition will be continuing.
• If daily price breaks 1,264.89 resistance level to above on close bar so the reversal to the ranging bullish condition will be started.
  

[Sergey Golubev]

Trading News Events: U.K. Consumer Price Index (CPI) (adapted from the article)

• "A material pickup in both the headline and core U.K. Consumer Price Index (CPI) may sap the bearish sentiment surrounding the British Pound and spark a larger recovery in GBP/USD especially as a growing number of Bank of England (BoE) officials see a greater threat of overshooting the 2% target for inflation."
• "Even though the BoE argues ‘a majority of members expect to support a further cut in Bank Rate to its effective lower bound,’ heightening price pressures may keep the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on the sidelines throughout the remainder of the yearas Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe warns the next quarterly inflation due out on November 3 will reflect the sharp decline in the exchange rate. In turn, GBP/USD may face a more meaningful correction as the BoE looks poised to endorse a wait-and-see approach ahead of 2017, but the broader outlook for the sterling remains tilted to the downside as the risk of a ‘hard Brexit’ clouds the outlook for growth and inflation."

Bullish GBP Trade: Headline & Core CPI Pick Up in September

• "Need green, five-minute candle following the print to consider a long GBP/USD trade."
• "If market reaction favors long sterling, buy GBP/USD with two separate position."
• "Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward."
  
• "Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit."

Bearish GBP Trade: U.K. Inflation Report Falls Short of Market Forecast

• "Need red, five-minute candle to favor a short GBP/USD trade."
• "Implement same setup as the bullish British Pound trade, just in reverse."

Daily price is located below 200-day SMA (200 SMA) and 100-day SMA (100 SMA) for the primary bearish market condition with the ranging within the narrow support/resistance levels.

• If D1 price breaks 1.2478 resistance level to above on close daily bar so the local uptrend as the bear market rally will be started.
  
• If price breaks 1.1940 support to below on close daily bar so the primary bearish trend will be resumed.
  
• If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes and 29 pips price movement

2016-10-18 00:30 GMT | [AUD - RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes]

• past data is n/a
  
• forecast data is n/a
• actual data is n/a according to the latest press release

[AUD - RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes] = It's a detailed record of the RBA Reserve Bank Board's most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their decision on where to set interest rates.

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From official report:

• "Over the past year, the Australian economy had continued its transition following the end of the mining investment boom. Over the year to the June quarter, GDP growth had been a little above estimates of potential, driven mainly by growth in resource exports that had been stronger than expected a year earlier. Growth in the June quarter had been more moderate than in the March quarter. Recent data were consistent with further moderate growth in the September quarter. This implied that, in year-ended terms, growth was expected to decline somewhat in the near term before rising gradually."
• "There remained a degree of uncertainty about the momentum in the labour market. While the unemployment rate had edged down a little further in previous months, broader measures of labour underutilisation had not declined. This was consistent with part-time work having accounted for all of the increase in employment over the year to date and the relative strength of the household services sector, which employs a higher-than-average share of part-time workers. National accounts data had provided some further tentative evidence that growth in employee earnings had stabilised. This was consistent with less downward pressure on earnings associated with the movement of labour from mining to the non-mining sectors of the economy."

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AUD/USD M5: 29 pips price movement by RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes news event